Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The forecast for Saturday’s matchup between the Cardinals and Twins calls for overcast skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. This one is getting started at 7:10 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The stadium is located in Minneapolis, and the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, while the Cardinals are 2nd in the NL Central, with an overall record of 64-64.
St. Louis has won three straight, while the Twins have won two in a row. However, they come into this one as the slight -146 money line favorite. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and Sonny Gray will start for the Cardinals, while the Twins are sending Pablo Lopez to the mound. This game can be seen on BSN.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – St. Louis Cardinals odds
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- The Cardinals are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
- Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Twins have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Cardinals have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.
It was all St. Louis in the last game of this series, as the Cardinals took down the Twins by a score of 6-1. The Cardinals offense only had two more hits than the Twins and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +132 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Andre Pallante for the Cardinals and David Festa for the Twins. Pallante went seven innings and gave up just one hit and one earned run, picking up a win in the game. On the other side, Festa lasted just 3 2/3 innings and gave up three runs on three hits.
St. Louis got on the board right away in this one, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. As for the Twins, they didn’t get on the board until the 4th inning and could only muster one run. Heading into the game, the Twins were favored at -157 on the money line.
Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is on a three-game winning streak, and they are 64-64 overall this season. The Cardinals are 10.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and are 2nd in the division. So far, they have gone just 19-23 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Cardinals are 34-30 this season, and they are just under .500 at 30-34 on the road. St. Louis has been good as the underdog this season, putting up a mark of 32-31. As the favorite, the Cardinals are 32-33 this season, and they have an overall series record of 20-18-4.
St. Louis has a run line record of 63-65 this season, with a run line record of 32-32 at home and 31-33 on the road. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 42-21 against the run line in those games. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.8, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5. They have covered the run line in four straight games as the underdog.
When the St. Louis Cardinals are on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 8 runs, but today’s line is 7.5. The Cardinals have played in 97 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season, and the over/under record in those games is 61-64. The combined run average in those games is 8.7 runs per game. In games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Cardinals’ over/under record is 9-18. The under has hit in each of the last two games for the Cardinals.
Right-hander Sonny Gray gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Twins on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. In his last outing, Gray took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least six earned runs in two straight starts. Gray has allowed a total of 18 home runs this season. One positive note is that he has 10 quality starts this year.
St. Louis has been one of the league’s worst offenses this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the MLB. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 9th in the league, and have the 16th best on-base percentage in the league. St. Louis has been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts this season, as they are 11th in the league in this category.
Over the past six games, Masyn Winn has been swinging a hot bat, going 10/27 with a home run and four RBIs. This has improved his season batting average to .280. Alec Burleson has been the team’s top power threat this season, as he has gone deep 21 times and driven in 70 runs. However, he is batting just .276.
Minnesota is 71-57 overall this season, and they are 3rd in the AL Central, two games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 28-17 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins dropped the first game of their series vs. the Cardinals and are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Twins are 36-25 this year while going 35-32 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins have put together a record of 55-33 and 16-24 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 24-14-3 this year.
Minnesota is 27-34 against the run line at home this season, and overall, they are 63-65. The Twins have a run differential of +0.5 runs per game this season, and they are 36-31 against the run line on the road. As the favorite, they are 41-47 against the run line, and they have covered the run line in 22 of 40 games as the underdog.
The Minnesota Twins are playing at home today against the St. Louis Cardinals. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their average combined run average of 9.2. The Twins have gone over the total in 66 of their 124 games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Twins have gone over the total in 19 of 33 games.
Pablo López gets the start for the Twins today and comes into the game with a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 4.47. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and 13 of them have been quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, López finished with a no-decision against the Rangers. In that start, he went six innings and didn’t give up a run. He only gave up three hits and three walks in the outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. López has been much better at home, with an ERA of 5.47 compared to 4.91 on the road.
Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the Twins’ top power threats this season, with Santana being 2nd on the team with 18 homers and Jeffers leading the team with 20 long balls. Jeffers has been especially hot of late, going 7/14 in his last five games with three homers and six RBIs. Overall, he is batting just .237. Willi Castro is also batting .254 and has gone deep 10 times this season.
As a team, the Twins are 6th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better at home, where they are averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in home runs and have the league’s 6th best team batting average. Collectively, the Twins are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Cardinals matchup is that the Twins will pick up a 5-4 win at home. Given that they are at -146 on the money line, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez has the Twins’ starter, and we have him finishing with five strikeouts. As for Sonny Gray, he is projected to finish with six K’s.
Offensively, we have the Twins finishing with eight hits compared to the Cardinals with seven. However, the Cardinals are projected to finish with fewer runs, with our model having them scoring just four runs.
Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Carlos Correa | Out | Heel |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Hip |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
| Brooks Lee | Out | Bicep |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Michael Siani | Out | Oblique |
