Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Mariners and Twins is set for 1:10 PM from Target Field in Minneapolis. Heading into the game, the Mariners are 20-17, while the Twins are 21-15 overall. Seattle is sending Logan Gilbert to the mound vs. Pablo Lopez for the Twins.
Minnesota is at -130 on the money line compared to the Mariners at +110. The over/under line is at 6.5 runs, and you can catch this one on MLBN.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Seattle Mariners odds
Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- The Mariners are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 5-0 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Twins have won 8-2 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- The Mariners have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Mariners series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -109 and squeaked out a 6-3 win. The Twins offense only had three more hits than the Mariners and struck out nine times, but still picked up a win.
Seattle’s starter, George Kirby, went just five innings and gave up four runs on four hits. He did finish the game with four strikeouts and only issued one walk. As for the Twins, Chris Paddack got the start and the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run.
Minnesota’s two-through-four hitters did the most damage, as Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Larnach each had two hits and an RBI. Castro and Larnach both homered in the game.
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Seattle is 20-17 overall this season, and they trail the Rangers by just one game in the AL West. The Mariners are 4-2 against other teams in the division. Currently, they are on the road, and they are losing the series vs. the Twins 1-2.
So far, the Mariners have been good at home, going 11-8. On the road, they are an even 9-9 this year. Seattle has won three straight games as the underdog, and they are 9-8 as the underdog overall. As for their record as the favorite, the Mariners are 11-9 this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Mariners are 6-4-1 and have won six straight series.
Seattle is 18-19 on the run line this season and is 9-9 on the run line on the road. The Mariners have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog and are 10-7 on the run line as the underdog this season. Seattle’s average run differential this season is +0.3 runs per game.
Seattle’s over/under record on the season is 10-25, and the over has hit in two straight games. The Mariners’ games have had an average of 7.1 runs scored per game, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. However, in the one game this season where the over/under line was set at 6.5 runs, the game went over the total.
Seattle is sending right-hander Logan Gilbert to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made six straight quality starts and has an ERA of 1.69 for the season. Gilbert’s record is 3-0, and he most recently faced the Astros, where he picked up the win, going eight innings and not allowing a run. In that outing, he gave up just two hits and issued four walks. So far, he has allowed five homers. Gilbert’s WHIP for the season is .79, and his strikeout total is 50. For the year, he has issued just 2.44 walks per nine innings.
Cal Raleigh has been one of the Mariners’ top power threats this season, as his nine homers is the best mark on the team and 4th best in the league. However, he is hitting just .214 for the season and has gone 4/24 in his last seven games. Julio Rodriguez has been a solid bat in the middle of the lineup, with a season-long batting average of .267.
Seattle’s offense is averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been even worse at home, putting up just 3.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .223 as a team, and their on-base percentage of .302 is also below the league average.
Minnesota is 21-15 overall and trails the Guardians by 2.5 games for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins have been very good in their last ten games, going 8-2.
At home, the Twins are 10-8 this year and 11-7 on the road. So far, they have been really good as the favorite, going 17-7. Their record as the underdog is 4-8 this season. Minnesota has won four straight series, and their overall series record is 5-4-2.
Minnesota has been a solid run line team this season, going 19-17 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 11-7 against the run line, while they are just 8-10 at home. They have been favored in 24 games, going 13-11 against the run line, while they are 6-6 as the underdog. Their average run differential is +0.4 runs per game.
Minnesota Twins games have been high-scoring affairs this season, with their games averaging 8.9 runs per game. The Twins’ over/under record for the season is 18-17, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. In their last game, the Twins and Mariners combined for 9 runs, going over the 7.5 run line. In their last 10 games, the over has hit 6 times.
Pablo López will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing, he finished with a record of 1-0 and picked up the win. Looking at his overall numbers, López has made three quality starts this year and has a record of 3-2. His ERA for the season is 4.30, along with a WHIP of 1.03. So far, he has an ERA of 4.34 at home compared to 5.31 on the road. López is averaging 10.75 strikeouts per nine innings, and his total of 45 strikeouts ranks 10th in the league.
Minnesota’s offense has been solid on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per contest, which is 11th in the league. The Twins have been a good home run hitting team this season and come into the game with the league’s 3rd best isolated power figure.
Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien are tied for the team lead with seven home runs this season, with Jeffers’ 27 RBIs being the best mark on the team and 8th best in the league. Jeffers is also hitting .303 for the season and has gone 11/32 in his last nine games. Willi Castro has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/38 in his last 10 games.
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Mariners matchup is that the Twins will pick up a win at home with a final score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a bet to make, we would recommend taking the Twins on the money line, where the payout is -130.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is fourth-best among today’s starters. As for Logan Gilbert, his six-strikeout projection is third-best. However, we have Gilbert finishing with more total hits allowed than Lopez.
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mariners (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Knee |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Josh Winder | Out | Shoulder |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Shoulder |
Seattle Mariners Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | Out | Oblique |
| Gregory Santos | Out | Lat |
| Jackson Kowar | Out | Elbow |
| Matt Brash | Out | Elbow |
| Tayler Saucedo | Out | Knee |
| Bryan Woo | Out | Elbow |
| Dominic Canzone | Out | Shoulder |
