Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 7/24/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

At 1:10 PM ET, the Phillies and Twins square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line, with their line sitting at -152 compared to the Twins at +128. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

Wednesday’s forecast in Minneapolis calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies, while the Twins are sending Steven Okert to the mound. Philadelphia leads the NL East with a record of 64-37, while the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central at 55-45.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
• On the opposing side, the Twins have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 5-5 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Twins have gone 3-7 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.

Philadelphia cruised to a 3-0 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 9th inning, scoring all three of their runs. As for the Twins, they had their opportunities but stranded 11 runners and went 1/11 with runners in scoring position.

Zack Wheeler started for the Phillies and picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. Simeon Woods Richardson got the start for the Twins and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work.

Nick Castellanos was the only player in the game to have more than one hit. He went 1/4 with two RBIs. Both Rhys Hoskins and Didi Gregorius each drove in a run for the Phillies’ offense.

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With a record of 64-37, the Phillies lead the NL East by nine games over the Braves. This season, the Phillies have gone 15-10 in divisional games, and they will be playing on the road today vs. the Twins. The Phillies are 37-16 at home and have gone 27-21 on the road.

As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 56-29 this season, and they are 8-8 as the underdog. The Phillies’ overall series record is 19-10-5, but they have dropped two straight series. Their most recent series was vs. the Marlins, and they lost the series 1-2. So far, the Phillies have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games.

The Phillies have been a solid run line bet this season, going 52-49 overall. They have been particularly good as the favorite, going 44-41. They have a run line record of 25-23 on the road, where they have a run differential of +0.5 runs per game.

Philadelphia’s over/under record is 45-51 this season, and the average line in their games is set at 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, they’re 15-12-1. The combined run average in their games is 8.7 runs, and 43.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs. They’ve had more games with lines set higher than 8 runs (44) than lower (29).

Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Twins on the road. Nola has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA. One of his complete games and shutouts came this year. Nola has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 8.66 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, going 6-1 with a 4.67 ERA compared to 5-3 with a 3.84 ERA at home.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .257 (3rd). They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. So far, they have the 6th most home runs in the MLB and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts, coming in 13th in the league in that category.

Bryce Harper has been on a tear of late, coming in on a five-game hitting streak while going 7/27 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .296 with a team-high 23 homers. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber have also been big power threats for the Phillies, with Bohm having 11 homers and Schwarber at 19. Bohm is batting .293 for the season, while Schwarber is at just .238.

Minnesota is 55-45 overall this season, and they are five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Twins are 19-13 against other teams in the AL Central this year. They have gone just 4-6 over their last 10 games and are currently tied with the Royals for 2nd place in the division.

So far, the Twins have been good at home, going 28-21. They have been just above .500 on the road, coming in with a record of 27-24. Minnesota has been good as the favorite this year, putting up a mark of 44-26. As the underdog, the Twins are 11-19 this year.

Minnesota is a team that has been playing close games all season, as their average run differential is +0.4 runs per game. They are just below .500 on the run line at 47-53, but have been better on the road (28-23) compared to at home (19-30). They have been favored in 70 games this season and have a run line record of 31-39 in those games.

The Twins have had high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game. Their over/under record is 50-48, and the average O/U line for their games is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 7-15-2. The O/U line for today’s game against the Phillies is set at 8 runs.

Left-hander Steven Okert gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Phillies. He has made 34 appearances this season but has not made a start. Okert’s record is 3-1, and he has an ERA of 4.39 and WHIP of 1.40. In his 28 2/3 innings of work, Okert has a BB/9 figure of 3.77 compared to 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Okert took the loss, giving up two earned runs in two-thirds of an inning of work. Before that, he had not allowed a run in three straight outings.

Carlos Correa comes into the game as one of the Twins’ top hitters this season, as he is batting .308 with a team-high 13 home runs and 47 RBIs. Correa is also on a four-game hitting streak. Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers are tied for the team lead with 14 homers. Santana has gone deep 14 times this season while batting just .242. Jeffers is hitting only .237.

Minnesota’s offense is 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been good at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, the Twins are 8th in home runs and have the 7th best team batting average in the league.

With the Twins being the underdog at +128, we see them as a great value pick to win this one straight up. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins, and with the payout, we would recommend locking in the Twins on the money line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Aaron Nola is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, and we have him going just five innings. As for the Twins starter, we have him finishing with 13 K’s and see him having a much better chance of picking up the win.

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• The Twins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report