Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Betting Tips 7/21/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview

There appears to be a chance for light rain in Minneapolis on Sunday, where the forecasted temperature is 68 degrees. The Twins are favored on the money line (-159), while the Brewers are at +134. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

Joe Ryan will start for the Twins, while the Brewers are sending Aaron Civale to the mound. Milwaukee is currently on a two-game winning streak and is 1st in the NL Central, while the Twins are 2nd in the AL Central. First pitch from Target Field is set for 1:05 PM ET.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
• In the Twins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Twins have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 3-7 against the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Brewers have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.

It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Twins by a score of 8-4. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Twins and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +103 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Peralta only went six innings but didn’t give up a hit or a run and finished with eight strikeouts. On the other side, Lopez was tagged for one run in seven innings of work.

Milwaukee’s two-through-four hitters, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Willy Adames, combined for seven of the team’s eight RBIs. Chourio and Brice Turang each scored three times for the Brewers’ offense.

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Milwaukee is 56-42 overall and leads the NL Central by five games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Twins and are 21-12 against other teams in the NL Central. So far, they are 29-17 at home and have gone 27-25 on the road.

As the road underdog, the Brewers have put together a mark of 17-15 this year. They are also 23-21 when going into games as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 17-11-3, and they have dropped three straight series.

The Brewers have been a solid play on the run line this season, going 51-47 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line as an underdog, going 29-15. They have also been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 28-24. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have covered the run line in three straight games as an underdog.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs per game. Milwaukee has gone over the O/U line in 53 of their 94 games this season. The average O/U line for Brewers games this season is 8 runs. When the O/U line is set at 8 runs, the Brewers have gone over 6 times, under 6 times, and pushed once. The O/U line for 61.2% of their games this season has been set at over 8 runs.

Milwaukee is sending Aaron Civale to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he comes in with a record of 2-7 and ERA of 4.94. So far this season, he has made 19 starts, and opponents are batting .263 off the right-hander. Civale has made four quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 4.18 compared to 6.48 on the road. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .255, which is 4th in the league, and have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 18th in the league in this category.

Willy Adames comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak and is currently 6th in the league with 67 RBIs. He also leads the Brewers with 15 homers. Adames has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/20 in his last five games. William Contreras has also gone deep 11 times this season, but he is just 3/20 in his last five games.

With an overall record of 54-43, the Twins are five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. Minnesota lost the first game of this series vs. the Brewers and has dropped two straight games overall. So far, they have gone 19-13 in AL Central matchups.

At home, the Twins are 27-19 this season, and they are 27-24 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins have gone 44-25 this season, and they are 10-18 as the underdog. Minnesota’s overall series record is 19-10-2.

Minnesota’s average run margin on the season is +0.4 runs per game, and their run line record is 46-51. They have been a better bet on the road, going 28-23 against the run line away from home compared to 18-28 at home. The Twins have a winning run line record in games they win, with an average margin of victory of +3.6 runs per game.

The Twins are at home today against the Brewers, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Minnesota’s games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 48-47. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 7-14-2. So far this season, 38 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which is 39.2% of their games. On the other hand, 36 of their games have had over/under lines set lower than 8 runs, which is 37.1% of their games.

Through 19 starts, Joe Ryan has a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 3.53. He has made 11 quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing against the Giants, where he gave up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Before that, Ryan had pitched well, going 5 2/3 innings in three straight outings and giving up three earned runs or fewer in each of those starts. Ryan’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.00, and opponents are batting .217 off the right-hander this year.

Carlos Correa has been a big part of the Twins offense this season, as he is batting .308 with 13 homers and 47 RBIs. Correa’s 47 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and his batting average is the 2nd best on the team. However, he has gone just 4/20 in his last six games. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana are tied for the team lead with 14 homers, but Santana has also struggled of late, going just 4/20.

As a team, the Twins are 6th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been a good home run hitting team this season and have the 6th best team batting average in the league. Overall, they are 3rd in slugging percentage and 6th in OPS.

With the Brewers coming in at +134 on the money line, that’s the route we recommend going for today’s Brewers vs. Twins matchup. We have the Brewers taking this one by a score of 6-4. If you’re looking for a parlay option, the over/under is sitting at 8 runs, and we have this one going over.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Civale finishing with five strikeouts, and for the Twins, Joe Ryan is projected to finish with six. Ryan is one of the better pitchers in terms of picking up a win today, but we have his final line at 6-4.

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips

• We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+134)
• The Brewers are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report