Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
There appears to be a chance for light rain in Minneapolis on Saturday, where the forecasted temperature is 78 degrees. The Twins and Brewers are set to face off at 7:10 PM ET at Target Field in Minneapolis. The money line odds have the Twins at -123 compared to the Brewers at +104. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Both teams are sending out a pitcher with a record of 54-42, and Saturday’s matchup features Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central, while the Twins are 2nd in the AL Central. BSWI will be televising this interleague matchup.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Twins have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Brewers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 9-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the top of the first, the Brewers responded with three runs of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another six runs in the 3rd inning.
Colin Rea put together a good start for the Brewers, going seven innings and giving up just three runs on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
Milwaukee is 55-42 overall and leads the NL Central by 4.5 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers will be on the road today vs. the Twins, and they are 17-11-3 in series this year. This includes having lost three straight series, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
So far, the Brewers have gone 21-12 against other teams in the NL Central. At home, the Brewers are 29-17 compared to 26-25 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 33-21 this year, and they are 22-21 as the underdog.
When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.6 runs, which is why they are 28-15 against the run line as underdogs. They have gone 50-47 against the run line overall, including 27-24 on the road. Their average scoring margin on the road is +0.7 runs per game, and they have covered the run line in two straight games as underdogs.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been a consistent over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record is 52-41, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 14 times and under 5 times. Their games have had an average line of 8 runs, and 75.3% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 7.5-run total. The over has hit in their last two games.
Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that July 12th start, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Peralta has finished with a no-decision, a win, and a loss. His ERA for the season is 4.11, along with a record of 6-5. Peralta has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 11.36 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has a total of 130 strikeouts, which ranks sixth in MLB.
William Contreras is batting .286 for the Brewers this season and is 3rd on the team with 55 RBIs. Willy Adames has been a key run producer for the Brewers, as his 67 RBIs are 7th in the league and tops on the team. Adames also has 15 homers this season, which is 13th in the MLB. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/21 in his last five games.
Overall, the Brewers are 3rd in team batting average and have the league’s best on-base percentage. They are also among the league leaders in home runs and have the best team on-base percentage in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.
Minnesota closed out their series vs. the Giants with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as the Twins held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Giants scored two runs in the bottom of the 9th. Minnesota was the +135 underdog on the road going into this game.
Chris Paddack put together a good start for the Twins, going five innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out six. However, the Twins couldn’t close things out, and Jhoan Duran took the loss out of the bullpen. The Twins also wasted a big game from Manuel Margot, who went 2/4 with a double, two RBIs, and a run scored.
Minnesota will take on the Brewers at home today with an overall record of 54-42, which has them five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. This season, they are 19-13 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins dropped two of three in their series vs. the Giants and are 6-4 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Twins have gone 27-18 this season, and they are 27-24 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota is 44-24 this season and 10-18 as the underdog. So far, they have been good as the home favorite, putting together a mark of 23-15. The Twins’ overall series record is 19-10-2 this season.
The Twins have been a solid run line team this season, going 46-50 overall. They have been better on the road than at home, going 28-23 against the run line away from Target Field. They have been a slight favorite in most games, going 31-37 against the run line as the chalk.
Minnesota has played to a 47-47 over/under record this season, with an average combined run average of 9.2 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 13-11. Overall, 63.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. The over has hit in two straight games for the Twins.
Pitcher Pablo López gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Brewers at home. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with an ERA of 5.11. Looking at his overall numbers, López has a WHIP of 1.18 and opponents are batting .246 this season. The right-hander has turned in eight quality starts this year and is averaging 10.47 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, López finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Over his last seven games, Byron Buxton has gone 12/25 at the plate with one home run and four RBIs. Overall, he is hitting .265 with seven homers. Carlos Correa and Carlos Santana are tied for 2nd on the team with 13 homers apiece, with Correa leading the Twins with 47 RBIs. Correa is also on a four-game hitting streak and is batting .308 for the season.
As a team, the Twins are 7th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and are also 7th in home runs. They have been a good home and road team offensively this season and are near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league.
We see the Brewers picking up a 6-5 road win over the Twins today. With the Brewers being the underdogs, there is some good value in taking them on the money line, where they are currently at +104.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Freddy Peralta finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing outside of the top 10 among starters. As for Pablo Lopez, we have him finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing around 12th among starters.
Offensively, we have the Brewers finishing with 11 hits compared to the Twins, who we have finishing with 10. However, the Twins are projected to hit more home runs, with the Brewers finishing 14th in home runs compared to the Twins, who are 11th.
Twins 10 Projected Hits Today: 19th in the league today
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+104)
- The Brewers are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Carlos Correa | Questionable | Heel |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Jose Miranda | Out | Back |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Kyle Farmer | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Groin |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Austin Martin | Out | Oblique |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Jared Koenig | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
