Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Tips 9/25/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Preview

Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Marlins and Twins gets started at 7:40 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins are heavily favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -192 compared to the Marlins at +161. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and he will be facing off against Simeon Woods Richardson. Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 58-99, while the Twins are 4th in the AL Central at 81-76 and are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. BSFL will be televising this game.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Marlins in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• The Twins have a straight-up record of 3-7 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
• The Marlins have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Miami pulled off a 4-1 upset over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 2nd inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Twins, they scored their only run in the 3rd. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +207 on the money line.

Ryan Weathers only went five innings for the Marlins but gave up just one run and picked up the win. Jesus Tinoco got the save. Bailey Ober struggled on the mound for the Twins, giving up four runs in five innings of work.

Jonah Bride was the difference for the Marlins’ offense, as he homered and scored three times. Xavier Edwards and Nick Fortes each had two hits and an RBI. Byron Buxton had a two-hit game for the Twins.

Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Miami is 58-99 overall, and they are 34.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Marlins are 5th in the division and have gone just 18-34 against other NL East teams. Miami is on the road today, where they are 28-48 this season.

So far, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14 this year. As the underdog, they are 54-85. Miami has an overall series record of 11-30-9 and have dropped four straight series.

So far this season, the Marlins have been a good bet on the run line when they are the underdog, going 72-67. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been the underdog in both of those contests. The Marlins have been the favorite just 18 times this season and have covered the run line in only two of those games.

When the Miami Marlins play on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Marlins have played 151 games this season, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Marlins games this season is 82-69. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 18-13-2. This season, 54.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs.

Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he comes in with a record of 4-8 and an ERA of 5.12. This year, he has made 19 starts and five of them have been quality starts. In his most recent outing, Cabrera was tagged for seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, he has given up at least two home runs in each of them. Opponents are batting .215 off the right-hander this season. Before that rough outing vs. the Dodgers, he had won two straight starts.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is batting a collective .242, which is 13th in the league, and they are 22nd in home runs. As a team, they are 24th in slugging percentage and 21st in on-base percentage.

Jake Burger is the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 28 home runs are 14th in the league. He is also leading the team with 69 RBIs. However, Burger has hit just .235 over his last nine games. Jonah Bride has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/34 in his last nine games with three homers.

Minnesota is 81-76 overall, putting them 4th in the AL Central. Currently, they trail the Guardians by 9.5 games. The Twins have dropped three straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10.

So far, the Twins have gone 29-23 against other teams in the AL Central. At home, they are 42-34 this year compared to a 39-42 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Twins are 64-46 and 17-30 as the underdog. Minnesota has an overall series record of 26-20-4 but has lost three straight series.

When the Twins are favored, they are 47-63 on the run line this season. They have a run line record of 25-22 as the underdog. Their overall run line record is 72-85, with an average run differential of 0.1 runs per game. Their scoring margin at home is 0.4 runs per game, while on the road, it is -0.1 runs per game.

Minnesota is averaging 9.1 runs per game, and their O/U record is 79-72. When the O/U line is set at 8, their record is 14-22-5. This season, 60 of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8, which is 38.2% of their games. 56 of their games have had O/U lines set lower than 8, which is 35.7% of their games.

Minnesota is sending Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.00. Woods Richardson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25, and he has pitched 132 2/3 innings. The right-hander has turned in seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Woods Richardson finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.

Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as his 22 home runs are the best mark on the team. He also leads the team with 65 RBIs. However, he is batting just .234 for the season. Willi Castro has been a solid run producer for the Twins, as his 59 RBIs are 3rd in the lineup, and he is batting .250 for the season.

Minnesota has two players who have been swinging the bat well of late, as Matt Wallner is hitting .375 over his last eight games, and Willi Castro is batting .286 in this stretch. Byron Buxton is currently on a four-game hitting streak, while Austin Martin has a hit in three straight games.

Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Twins matchup is to take the Twins to win at home, but at -192, the payout isn’t great. Instead, we recommend taking the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera is projected to finish with seven strikeouts. However, we have Simeon Woods Richardson finishing with six, and the Twins are projected to finish with 13 strikeouts as a team.

Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips

• Take the Twins on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Miami Marlins Injury Report