Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Preview
The forecast from Minneapolis on Tuesday calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The Twins and Marlins are set to face off at 7:40 PM ET from Target Field. Minnesota is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -243 compared to the Marlins at +203. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Miami comes into the game with a record of 57-99, while the Twins are 81-75. Minnesota is currently on a two-game losing streak, while the Marlins have lost two straight as well. Ryan Weathers will start for the Marlins, and the Twins are sending Bailey Ober to the mound. Weathers is a lefty, and the Twins have him at -243 compared to the Marlins at +203. This game can be seen on BSFL.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Miami Marlins odds
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Marlins in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Twins have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Twins have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have won 3-7 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Braves scored two runs in the top of the 8th. Miami was the +166 underdog at home going into the game.
Darren McCaughan got the start for the Marlins, going four innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out five. However, the Marlins couldn’t close things out, and Declan Cronin took the loss out of the bullpen. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Jake Burger, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 2/4.
Miami is on the road today, facing the Twins with an overall record of 57-99, putting them 5th in the NL East, 35.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 18-34 this year.
This season, the Marlins are just 4-14 when favored and 27-48 as the road underdog. They have dropped two straight games, and this came after losing the final game of their series vs. the Braves. Miami’s overall series record is 11-30-9, and they have dropped four straight series.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 71-67. However, they have been a terrible bet as the favorite, going just 2-16. Overall, they are 73-83 on the run line, with an average run differential of -1.4 runs per game.
The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins. The O/U line for today’s game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Marlins games this season is 9.1 runs per game. Miami has an over/under record of 82-68 this season, and the average O/U line for their games is 8 runs. When the O/U line is set at 8 runs, the Marlins have a record of 18-12-2. Overall, 55.1% of their games this season have had O/U lines set at over 8 runs.
Miami is sending left-hander Ryan Weathers to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 3-6. Weathers’ ERA is 3.94, along with a WHIP of 1.18. In his 14 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts. Weathers’ most recent outing was a rough one, as he took the loss vs. the Dodgers. In that start, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs, and three homers. Before that outing, he had not given up a homer in four straight starts.
Over his last eight games, Jake Burger has three home runs and is batting .276. For the season, he is hitting .248 with a team-leading 28 homers and 69 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is also a significant power threat for the Marlins, as he has 18 homers and 63 RBIs this season while batting .247.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Red Sox with a 9-3 loss. Minnesota was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Red Sox scored six times in the 2nd.
Zebby Matthews got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up six earned runs. Offensively, the Twins scored their only three runs in the2nd inning. Trevor Larnach and Christian Vazquez each had two hits. Larnach also scored a run and drove in one.
With an overall record of 81-75, the Twins are 4th in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 8.5 games. Minnesota lost the final two games of their series vs. the Red Sox, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Twins are 42-33 this season, and they are just below .500 at 39-42 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins are 64-45 this season, and they are 17-30 when coming into a game as the underdog. Minnesota’s overall series record is 26-20-4, and they have dropped three straight series.
When the Twins win, they win big, with an average run differential of +3.7 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run differential of -3.7 runs per game. That’s why they are just 72-84 against the run line this season, including a 32-43 mark at home. They are 40-41 vs. the run line on the road, and they have failed to cover in their last two games as the run line favorite.
The Twins have had a high-scoring season, with a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record is 79-71, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 14-21-5. The over has hit in 60 of their games this season, which is 38.5% of their games. They have had an over streak of 2 games.
Right-hander Bailey Ober is getting the start for the Twins today as he faces the Marlins at home. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 12-7 with an ERA of 3.84. Opponents are batting .200 off Ober this season, and he has a WHIP of .97. In his 29 appearances, Ober has turned in 18 quality starts and is averaging 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Ober’s last outing came on September 18th, where he finished with a no-decision after giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a homer.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs (22) and RBIs (65) but is batting just .235 for the season. Over his last eight games, he has gone 6/33 (.182) with one home run. Willi Castro is batting .249 for the season and has gone 7/27 in his last eight games, including one home run and five RBIs. Castro is 3rd on the team with 59 RBIs.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are 6th in the league in home runs. Overall, they are batting .247, which is 10th in the league. Minnesota comes into the game with three players on three-game hitting streaks, including Matt Wallner, who has gone 9/28 in his last eight games.
Our prediction for the Twins and Marlins matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins, giving us a little bit of cushion on the over/under line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Bailey Ober finishing with six strikeouts compared to Ryan Weathers with five. However, we have Weathers finishing with a better ERA than Ober, and we also have him finishing with more wins.
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
