Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Preview
Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins on Monday, and he is facing off against Alec Marsh for the Royals. The money line odds for Monday’s matchup have the Twins favored at -168, while the Royals are sitting at +143. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
First pitch from Target Field is set for 2:10 PM ET, and BSN is carrying this game on TV. The Royals are 2nd in the AL Central with a record of 34-20, while the Twins are 3rd at 28-24.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Kansas City Royals odds
Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Royals are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Twins have gone 2-3 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Twins are 5-5 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Royals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction
Bobby Witt Jr. had a good game at the plate in the Royals’ 4-1 loss to the Rays. He went 2/5 with a homer run and scored the team’s only run. The Royals really wasted a good outing from Michael Wacha, who went six innings and gave up just two runs on three hits. They also got seven hits but only scored one run.
Wacha took the loss and is now 3-4 on the season. He only had one strikeout in the outing and issued the team’s only walk. The Royals also wasted a big game from leadoff hitter Whit Merrifield, who went 3/5 with a run scored.
Kansas City is 34-20 overall this season, and they are 2.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 11-5 in divisional games. The Royals are just above .500 on the road, coming in with a 13-12 mark, and they have been strong at home, going 21-8.
The Royals have won three straight series, and they took two of three from the Rays in their most recent series. Kansas City has been good as the favorite this year, putting up an 18-6 mark, and they are 16-14 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Royals have gone 8-2 over their last ten games.
When it comes to the run line, the Royals have been a solid bet this season, going 35-19 overall. They have been even better on the road, where they are 15-10. Their average run margin is 1.5 runs per game, and they have been particularly good at covering the run line as the underdog, going 20-10 in those games.
When the Kansas City Royals are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Royals and their opponents have combined to average 8.3 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Kansas City games is 22-30, and when the line is set at 8 runs, the record is 6-4-1. So far this season, 59.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, while 20.4% have had lines set lower than 8 runs.
Kansas City is sending right-hander Alec Marsh to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 4-1 with an ERA of 2.72. Marsh’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07. In his 43 innings of work, he has given up just three homers. Looking back at his last outing, Marsh got the win vs. the Tigers, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had gone two straight starts without giving up a homer. Opponents are batting .209 off Marsh this season.
Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been a dynamic duo at the top of the Royals lineup so far this season, with Perez leading the team with a .325 batting average and Witt Jr. right behind him at .307. Witt Jr. has been on fire of late, going 12/29 in his last seven games with four homers and 13 RBIs. Witt Jr. is also on a nine-game hitting streak. Maikel Garcia has also been hot of late, going 13/32 in his last seven games.
As a team, the Royals are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 11th best home run total and are batting .252 as a team, which is 6th in the MLB.
The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rangers with a 6-2 loss. This was especially tough, as it closed out a series where the Twins were the heavy favorite. Minnesota’s offense was the -169 favorite at home but scored just two runs on three hits. Both of their runs came in the 4th inning.
Pablo Lopez had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on seven hits and issuing three walks. He also hit a batter and took the loss. The Twins were hoping for more out of Lopez, as he had been pitching well before the rough outing, giving up just two earned runs over his previous three starts.
Minnesota is 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 7.5 games. Overall, the Twins are 28-24 and have gone 12-10 against other teams in the AL Central. This year, they have been good as the favorite, going 23-12, but just 5-12 as the underdog.
At home, the Twins are 13-12 this year and 15-12 on the road. Minnesota’s series record is 9-6-2 this year, and they have won two straight series. Looking at today’s game, the Twins are hosting the Royals, who are 2nd in the AL Central and 2.5 games ahead of the Twins.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet overall this season, as they have a run differential of +0.1 runs per game. They have gone 25-27 against the run line this season, including a 10-15 mark at home. The Twins have been a better bet on the run line on the road, going 15-12 compared to 10-15 at home. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6 runs per game, while in losses it is -4.0 runs per game.
The Twins have an over/under record of 23-27 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 4-7-2. So far this season, 38.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, while 36.5% have had lines set below that number.
Through 10 starts, Joe Ryan has a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.15. He has made seven quality starts this year and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing vs. the Nationals, Ryan went seven innings, picking up the win. Looking back further, he has alternated wins and losses over his last four starts. Ryan’s WHIP for the season is .98, and opponents are batting .215 vs. the right-hander. Per nine innings, he is averaging just 1.35 walks compared to 9.6 strikeouts.
Over the past eight games, Alex Kirilloff has been swinging a hot bat for the Twins, going 5/17 with three homers and four runs scored. Overall, he is batting .294. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana are the top power threats in the Twins lineup, with Jeffers leading the team with 10 homers and Santana right behind him with seven. Jeffers’ 33 RBIs are 12th in the league, and Santana has driven in 22 runs.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in home runs and have the league’s 4th best isolated power figure.
Our prediction for today’s Royals vs. Twins game is to take the Twins to pick up the win at home. However, with their money line sitting at -168, we actually prefer to take the over, with the line being 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Alec Marsh is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among today’s starters. As for Joe Ryan, he is projected to finish with six K’s, putting him towards the middle of the pack.
Offensively, we actually have the Twins finishing with more runs than the Royals, and they are also projected to finish with more home runs. However, you could look to take the over and parlay that with the Twins to win.
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Royals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Josh Winder | Out | Shoulder |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
Kansas City Royals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | Out | Personal |
| Josh Taylor | Out | Biceps |
| Kyle Wright | Out | Shoulder |
| Kris Bubic | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Isbel | Questionable | Face |
| Michael Massey | Out | Back |
