Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Preview
Joe Ryan gets the start for the Twins on Saturday, as they will be looking to move above .500 for the season. However, they are facing an Astros club that has won three straight and Houston’s overall record is 46-42. The game is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Twins are favored on the money line (-122).
The over/under line for Saturday’s Astros vs. Twins matchup is currently 8 runs, and the forecast in Minneapolis calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low 70s. Hunter Brown is scheduled to start for the Astros.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Houston Astros odds
Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Astros are 4-1. This includes going 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Twins have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 5-0 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Twins have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Astros have a 7-3 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
It was a wild game in the most recent game of this Astros vs Twins series. Houston went into the matchup as +128 underdogs and squeaked out a 13-12 win. The Astros had to score three runs in the 9th inning to pick up the win.
Minnesota wasted a huge performance from Jose Miranda, who went 4/4 with a home run. Miranda’s homer came in a seven-run 4th inning for the Twins’ offense. Heading into the game, the Twins were favored at -150.
Shawn Dubin got the start for the Astros, going just 2 2/3 innings while giving up three runs and striking out two. Bryan Abreu got the win out of the bullpen, and Josh Hader got the save. Pablo Lopez had a rough outing for the Twins, taking the loss.
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction
Houston is 46-42 overall this year, putting them 2nd in the AL West, two games behind the Mariners for the division lead. The Astros have won three straight games, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games overall. Houston closed out the first half of the season by winning six straight games.
At home, the Astros are 24-19 this season, and they are just above .500 at 22-23 on the road. So far, they have really been favored in most of their games, going 34-32 as the favorite. As for their underdog record, the Astros are 12-10 this year, which includes being 9-7 as the underdog on the road. Houston’s series record is 16-11-1 this year, and they have won six straight series overall.
The Astros have been a solid run line bet this season, going 45-43. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 23-22 against the run line. They have covered the run line in seven straight road games and are 14-8 against the run line as underdogs. Their average run margin in wins is +4.0, while it is -3.3 in losses.
The Astros are on the road against the Twins today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Houston’s games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 34-50. When the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 5-7-2, and 65.9% of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs.
Hunter Brown is looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that July 1st outing vs. the Blue Jays, he went six innings, giving up just two hits and three walks. Brown finished with five strikeouts in the outing. This year, he has made 16 starts, has a record of 6-5, and his ERA is 4.07. Opponents are batting .232 off the right-hander this season. Brown has made nine quality starts and is averaging 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have been a great 1-2 punch for the Astros this season, as they are tied for the team lead with 19 homers apiece. Alvarez is batting .300 for the season and has gone 12/28 in his last eight games, including three homers and nine RBIs. Tucker is also swinging a hot bat of late, as he is on a three-game hitting streak and has gone deep three times in his last eight games.
As a team, the Astros are the top hitting team in the league, with a batting average of .265. They also lead the league in fewest strikeouts per game and are 8th in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, but that number is up to 5.1 runs per game at home.
Minnesota is 49-39 overall, putting them six games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Twins are 17-12 against other AL Central teams this year. So far, they have been good at home, going 25-18, and they are 24-21 on the road.
As the favorite, the Twins have gone 40-22 this year, and they are 21-15 as the home favorite. Minnesota’s overall series record is 17-9-2, and they have won four straight series. Their road series winning streak is at three right now. Over the last 10 games, the Twins are 6-4.
When the Twins win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 42-46, with a run line record of 17-26 at home and 25-20 on the road. They are 29-33 against the run line as the favorite and 13-13 as the underdog.
The Minnesota Twins are playing at home today against the Houston Astros. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is right around their season average of 8 runs per game. The Twins have gone over the line in 44 of their 86 games this season, including 7 of 20 when the line has been set at 8 runs. The over has hit in each of their last five games.
Joe Ryan is getting the start for the Twins today and comes into the game with a record of 5-5 and ERA of 3.21. He has made 17 starts this year and has pitched well, with 11 of his outings being quality starts. Ryan’s WHIP for the season is an impressive 0.96. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. The right-hander has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 2.96 compared to 3.83 at home.
Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the Twins’ top power threats this season, with Santana’s 12 homers ranking 2nd on the team and Jeffers’ 14 home runs leading the team and ranking 12th in the MLB. Jeffers also comes into the game on a nine-game hitting streak, while Jose Miranda has gone 13/20 in his last five games, including one home run.
Overall, the Twins are 6th in scoring this season at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Twins are 6th in batting average and have the league’s 3rd best slugging percentage.
We see the Twins coming away with a 6-5 win in this one, and with them sitting at -122 on the money line, that is where we recommend going with your bet. Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Ryan is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him 18th among starters.
As for Hunter Brown, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which has him at 10th among starters. However, we have him finishing with a 4.50 ERA, which has him at 20th among starters.
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Astros (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Arm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Groin |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | Out | Neck |
| Jose Altuve | Questionable | Hand |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Victor Caratini | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Bloss | Out | Shoulder |
