Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction & Betting Tips 7/5/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Preview

At 8:10 PM ET, the Astros and Twins will square off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Astros are currently on a two-game winning streak, putting them at 45-42 overall. The Twins are 2nd in the AL Central with a record of 49-38.

Friday’s forecast in Minneapolis calls for light rain and temperatures in the mid-70s. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Twins are favored on the money line (-159). Shawn Dubin will go for the Astros, while the Twins are starting Pablo Lopez.

Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Houston Astros odds

Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats

• The Astros are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Twins have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 5-0 record in their last five home games.
• The Twins have a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Astros have a 7-3 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Houston closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 5-3 win on the road. Heading into the game, the Astros were the slight favorite at -113 on the money line. It was a big three-run 1st inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Blue Jays could only score three runs, all of which came in the 3rd.

Framber Valdez put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and giving up just three earned runs, and picking up the win. Houston’s offense was carried by Jeremy Pena, who went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

Houston is on the road today vs. the Twins, and they are two games behind the Mariners for the AL West lead. The Astros have an overall record of 45-42, which includes a mark of 15-12 against other AL West teams. The Astros have won two straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a win.

As the favorite, the Astros are 34-32 this year and 11-10 as the underdog. They have been good at closing out series, as their overall record is 16-11-1, and they have won six straight series. On the road, they are 3- straight in series.

When betting the run line on the Astros, it’s important to note that they have been a .500 team against the run line overall (44-43), including a .500 record on the road (22-22). They’ve been a better bet at home (22-21) and have covered the run line in six straight road games. They have been a better bet as an underdog (13-8) than as a favorite (31-35).

When the Astros are on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 9 runs per game, but today’s line is 8 runs. Houston’s games have averaged 9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 33-50. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 4-7-2. So far this season, 66.7% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s, with 58 of their games having lines set above 8 runs.

Houston is sending right-hander Shawn Dubin to the mound today as he faces the Twins on the road. Dubin has made one start and 15 appearances this season. His record is 1-1, and he has an ERA of 4.91. In his 25 2/3 innings of work, Dubin has a WHIP of 1.56 and is averaging 9.47 strikeouts per nine innings. The last time he took the mound was on June 30th, where he went 3 1/3 innings, giving up no earned runs and coming away with a no-decision. He has not allowed a homer in his last three outings.

So far this season, the Astros are the top hitting team in the league, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the best team batting average in the league at .264. Houston’s offense has also done a great job of avoiding strikeouts, as they are the league’s top team in this category.

Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear for the Astros, going 13/30 in his last nine games with three homers and 12 runs scored. For the season, he is batting .302 with 19 homers and 49 RBIs. Kyle Tucker also has 19 homers, and his batting average of .266 is 8th best on the team.

Ryan Jeffers and the Twins’s offense was hot in their most recent game vs. the Tigers, a 12-3 win. Jeffers went 3/4 with four RBIs and a homer. The Twins really broke things open with a seven-run 3rd inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Twins were at -181 at home.

Bailey Ober started for the Twins, going six innings and giving up just one run on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Minnesota is 49-38 overall this season, putting them 2nd in the AL Central. Currently, they are six games behind the Guardians for the division lead. The Twins have gone 17-12 against other teams in the AL Central.

At home, the Twins are 25-17 this season and 24-21 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 40-21 and 21-14 as the favorite at home. The Twins have been good in series this year, coming in with a mark of 17-9-2, and they have won four straight series.

Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 42-45 overall and 25-20 on the road. The Twins have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 13-13, compared to 29-32 as the favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.7, while it’s -3.6 in losses.

The Minnesota Twins are playing at home today against the Houston Astros. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 9.2 runs per game. The Twins have a 43-42 over/under record on the season, and their games have averaged exactly 8 runs per game. Their games have gone over the 8-run line in 41.4% of their games this season. The over has hit in each of their last four games.

Minnesota is sending Pablo López to the mound today vs. the Astros, and he has been pitching well as of late. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had a streak of three straight outings in which he gave up at least five earned runs. López’s ERA for the season is 4.88, along with a record of 8-6. Out of his 17 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 17 homers.

Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda have been swinging the bat well for the Twins of late, with Correa hitting .333 over his last five games, including two homers, and Miranda batting .458 over his last six games. Miranda has also scored six runs during his current hitting streak. Ryan Jeffers comes into the game as the Twins’ top home run hitter, with 14 homers, and he is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 46.

For the season, the Twins are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. They have also been a good home run hitting team so far, as their 103 homers is 6th in the league. Overall, they are batting .250, which is 8th in the league, and have the 4th best isolated power mark in the league.

With the Astros going off at +135 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick and have the Astros winning this one by a score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay, we would recommend taking the over, as the line is sitting at 8 runs, and we have this one finishing with 11 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Shawn Dubin finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him as the seventh best among starters. As for Pablo Lopez, we have him finishing with five K’s, which would have him as the 16th best.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Tips

• We like the Astros on the moneyline (+135)
• The Astros are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Houston Astros Injury Report