Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Betting Tips 7/4/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Preview

The Twins head into Thursday’s matchup vs. the Tigers looking to move into first place in the AL Central, as they are 48-38. Detroit is 39-47 and is starting Kenta Maeda. Bailey Ober is starting for the Twins. Minnesota is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -189 compared to the Tigers at +159.

Thursday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the forecast for the game in Minneapolis calls for light rain and temperatures in the mid-60s. BSN is carrying this game on TV.

Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Detroit Tigers odds

Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Tigers are 2-3. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
• The Twins, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 5-0 record.
• As the favorite, the Twins are 7-3 over their last ten games, including going 7-3 vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Tigers have won 2-8 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.

Detroit cruised to a 9-2 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Tigers had a huge 3rd inning, scoring five of their nine runs. As for the Twins, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Tigers were at +143 on the money line.

Keider Montero pitched well for the Tigers in this one, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with four strikeouts but issued five walks. On the other side, David Festa got the start for the Twins and went five innings, giving up seven earned runs on nine hits.

Riley Greene and Carson Kelly each homered for the Tigers, while Matt Vierling went 3/4 with two RBIs. Wenceel Perez also had a two RBI game at the plate.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Detroit is 39-47 overall and trails the Guardians by 15 games in the AL Central. The Tigers are 13-11 against other teams in the division. So far, they have gone 20-25 on the road compared to 19-22 at home. Detroit will be looking to get back on track, as they have dropped two straight series and have an overall series record of 9-13-4 this year.

As the road underdog, the Tigers are 15-20 this season, and they are 20-28 overall as the underdog. When favored, Detroit has gone 19-19 this year. Their overall record has come with a 4-6 mark over their last 10 games.

The Tigers are 37-49 against the run line this season, including a 23-22 mark on the road. The Tigers have been a better bet as an underdog, going 28-20 against the run line in those games. Detroit’s average run margin in winning games is +3.8 runs per game, while it’s -3.5 runs per game in losses.

The Detroit Tigers are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8.5 runs. The Tigers have played 84 games this season, and the over has hit in 46 of them. Their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 10 of the 19 games. The over has hit in four straight games for Detroit.

Kenta Maeda is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Angels, as he finished with a no-decision in that start. Against the Angels, he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back at his last three starts, Maeda has finished with a no-decision in two of them and took the loss in the other. He has a record of 2-4 this season, along with an ERA of 5.76 and WHIP of 1.42. Out of his 14 appearances, Maeda has made two quality starts and is averaging 6.83 strikeouts per nine innings. Maeda’s ERA on the road is 9.7 compared to 4.67 at home.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the same number of runs they are averaging on the road and at home. As a team, they are batting just .228, which is 18th in the league, and have the 18th worst on-base percentage in the league. Detroit’s home run numbers are also not great, as they are 18th in the league in homers.

Riley Greene has been the Tigers’ top power threat this season, as his 16 home runs are 1st on the team and 11th in the league. Greene also leads the team with 43 RBIs and is batting .260. Over his last six games, Justyn-Henry Malloy has two homers and is batting .300. Carson Kelly has also gone deep twice in his last four games, but is just 3/14 in that stretch.

Minnesota is 48-38 overall, which has them six games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Twins are 16-12 against other teams in the AL Central. They have won three straight series, and their overall series record is 16-8-2 this year.

At home, the Twins are 24-17 this season, and they are 24-21 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 39-21, and they are 20-14 as the favorite at home. Minnesota has gone 7-3 across their last ten games, and they are currently tied with the Tigers in their series.

When betting the run line in Minnesota Twins games this season, it has been more profitable to take the Twins on the road, where they are 25-20 vs. the run line. The Twins’ average run margin in all games is +0.4, and they have covered the run line in 41 of 86 games. They are 16-25 vs. the run line at home and 25-20 on the road. The Twins have been favored in 60 games and are 28-32 vs. the run line in those games.

Minnesota’s over/under record is 42-42 this season, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 12-13. This season, 58.1% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run line. The over has hit in their last three games.

Twins starter Bailey Ober has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 7-4. His ERA is 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Opposing batters are hitting .225 off the right-hander this season. Ober has turned in seven quality starts and one complete game this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 9.03 compared to 3.79 at home.

Carlos Correa has been hot of late for the Twins, as he comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 5/15 in his last four games, including two homers. Jose Miranda is also swinging the bat well, as he has gone 6/19 in his last five games. However, he has yet to homer during that stretch.

Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers are the Twins’ top power threats, with Santana’s 12 homers ranking 2nd on the team and Jeffers’ 13 long balls leading the club. Jeffers’ 42 RBIs are also the best mark on the team. Willi Castro is batting .274 this season and has gone deep seven times.

We are predicting the Twins to pick up a 5-4 win over the Tigers, and with the money line payout for the Twins at -189, we see the over/under line of 8.5 runs as a better bet. Our pick is to take the over, with the line sitting at -101.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Kenta Maeda is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and he has the sixth-best chances of picking up a win among today’s starters. As for Bailey Ober, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts and has the ninth-best chances of picking up a win.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips

• Take the Twins on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Tigers (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Minnesota Twins Injury Report

Detroit Tigers Injury Report