Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
At 2:10 PM ET, the Guardians and Twins face off in an AL Central matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Twins are 65-51, while the Guardians are 68-49 overall. Cleveland is currently in first place in the AL Central, while the Twins are second in the division.
The over/under line for Sunday’s game is at 8.5 runs, and the Guardians are favored on the money line, with the line sitting at -115 compared to the Twins at -104. David Festa is starting for the Twins, while the Guardians are going with Tanner Bibee.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Cleveland Guardians odds
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- In the Twins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their previous ten games, Guardians have won 7-3 as favorites and 3-7 as underdogs.
- The Twins have a 6-4 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 4-6.
Cleveland picked up a 2-1 road win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a good chance to win by more than one run, as they were favored at -105 on the money line.
Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Twins could only muster one more run in the 7th inning. As for the Guardians, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 6th, and both offenses went silent after that.
Gavin Williams started for the Guardians and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but didn’t issue a walk. Emmanuel Clase got the save. Simeon Woods Richardson had a good outing for the Twins, taking the loss.
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is 68-49 overall this season, and they lead the AL Central by 2.5 games over the Twins. The Guardians dropped the first two games of this series vs. the Twins but bounced back to win game three. So far, they have gone 20-17 in divisional games.
At home, the Guardians have been strong at 35-20 this season. On the road, they are 33-29 this season. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 48-25, and they are 20-24 as the underdog. Cleveland’s overall series record is 21-11-4, and they have won two straight series on the road.
When the Cleveland Guardians are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 32-30 on the run line away from home. Their average run margin on the road is +0.6 runs per game, and they are 57-60 overall on the run line this season. They have been the underdog in 44 games this season and have covered the run line in 25 of those contests.
The Cleveland Guardians are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians have played a lot of games with lines set at 8.5 runs this season, going 17-15 in those games. Overall, their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season.
Tanner Bibee has been pitching well for the Guardians, as he has a record of 9-4 and an ERA of 3.48. In his 22 starts, Bibee has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 9.76 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Bibee faced the Tigers and picked up the win. In that start, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had not allowed an earned run in two straight outings. The right-hander has been especially good at home, with an ERA of 4.47 compared to 3.10 on the road.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 30 homers are 4th in the league and Naylor’s 26 is 8th in the MLB. Ramirez’s 96 RBIs are 2nd in the league, while Naylor is 5th in the league with 85 RBIs. Both players have been swinging the bat well of late, with Ramirez hitting .316 and Naylor batting .297 over their past 10 games.
Overall, the Guardians are 12th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league, and are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game.
Minnesota is 65-51 overall this season, and they are 2nd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 2.5 games. So far, they have gone 26-15 in divisional games. The Twins have taken two of the first three games of this series vs. the Guardians.
At home, the Twins have gone 34-22 this season, and they are 31-29 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 52-30 this year and 13-21 as the underdog. The Twins also have an overall series record of 22-12-2.
Minnesota has been a solid run-line bet overall this season, going 57-59 against the run line. They have been a better bet on the road, going 32-28, compared to 25-31 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 18-16 against the run line, compared to 39-43 as the favorite.
Minnesota has seen a high-scoring average of 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 60-53. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, they have a record of 17-17. So far this season, only 10.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
David Festa will be making his 4th start of the season for the Twins, and he is coming off a win over the Cubs in his last outing. Festa went 5 innings and struck out 9 batters in that start. He has gone 5 innings in each of his first 3 starts and has 22 strikeouts in 15 innings of work.
Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the Twins’ top power threats this season, as Santana is 2nd on the team with 15 homers, and Jeffers is right behind him with 17. Jeffers’ 53 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and Santana is 2nd with 49. However, both players are looking to get going at the plate, as Santana is batting just .245 for the season, and Jeffers is at .228. Over his last six games, Santana has gone 6/22.
Minnesota’s offense has been solid this season, as they are 7th in the league at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
We see the Guardians coming away with a 6-5 win on the road against the Twins. Given that they are listed at -115 on the money line, this is the best way to play this one. Offensively, the Guardians are projected to have the second-most hits in the league today, and they are projected to hit five home runs.
As for the Twins, they are projected to finish with just eight hits and have a team strikeout total of nine. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tanner Bibee finishing with seven strikeouts for the Guardians, and David Festa with five for the Twins.
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- We like the Guardians on the moneyline (-115)
- The Guardians are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Carlos Correa | Out | Heel |
| Steven Okert | Out | Personal |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
| Brooks Lee | Out | Bicep |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Hip |
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Probable | Knee |
