Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
From Target Field in Minneapolis, we have the Reds and Twins facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 1:05 PM ET. The forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 60s.
David Festa is starting for the Twins, and they are the heavy favorites on the money line at -160. The Reds have won two straight and are 73-77, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Sunday’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Minnesota Twins – Cincinnati Reds odds
Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Reds have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Twins have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 0-5 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Twins have a record of 4-6 straight-up, and have gone 2-8 against the runline.
- The Reds have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati cruised to an easy 11-1 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 4th inning, scoring nine of their eleven runs. As for the Twins, they scored their only run in the 1st inning. Heading into the game, the Reds were at +128 on the money line.
Nick Martinez pitched well for the Reds in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but did not issue a walk. Simeon Woods Richardson had a rough outing for the Twins, giving up three earned runs in just three innings of work.
TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley each homered for the Reds, while Jonathan India scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Noelvi Marte also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Cincinnati’s offense.
Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 73-77 overall and 14 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds have gone 21-25 in divisional games this year and are currently 4th in the division. They have won two straight games, and these two wins have come in the first two games of their series vs. the Twins.
At home, the Reds are 36-39 this year, and they are one game above .500 at 37-38 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati is 40-44 this year, and they are an even 33-33 when favored. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 18-27-3, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Reds have been a profitable run-line team this season, going 82-68 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 47-28 against the run line. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a good bet as an underdog, going 55-29 against the run line in those games.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. Their combined run average this season is 8.7, and their over/under record is 69-74. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 18-15. The over has hit in two straight games for the Reds.
Rhett Lowder will be making his third start of the season for the Reds, and he is coming off a win over the Cardinals in his last outing. In that start, he went 5 innings, giving up 0 runs and striking out 3. Lowder has yet to give up a home run this season, and he has not allowed a hit in any of his starts.
Elly De La Cruz has been a consistent run producer for the Reds this season, as he is batting .257 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. He is also 4th on the team in on-base percentage. Spencer Steer has a team-high 88 RBIs but is batting just .231. However, he does have 19 homers, which is the 3rd most in the Reds lineup.
Jeimer Candelario has 20 homers this season, which is the 2nd best mark on the team, but he is batting just .225 for the season. Over his last 8 games, TJ Friedl is hitting .370 with two homers and seven RBIs. Friedl is also on a three-game hitting streak.
Minnesota will be hoping to pick up a win today, as they are 78-70 overall and trail the Guardians by 6.5 games in the AL Central. So far, they have gone 28-20 against other teams in the division. The Twins have dropped two straight games, and they are just 3-7 across their last ten games.
At home, the Twins are 41-33 this season, and they are an even 37-37 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins have gone 62-41 this season and 16-29 as the underdog. Minnesota has an overall series record of 26-17-4 this season.
Minnesota is 31-43 against the run line at home this season, and they are 68-80 overall. The Twins are 23-22 against the run line as an underdog, and they have been favored in 103 games, going 45-58 against the run line in those contests.
The Twins have been a solid over team this season, going 75-67 on the over/under line. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game, and they’ve hit the over in four straight games. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, but when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, they’ve gone 23-22 on the over/under line. Just 9.5% of their games have had an over/under line of 8.5 runs, but they’ve hit the over in 60.1% of their games when the line has been set below 8.5 runs.
Right-hander David Festa gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Reds at home. Festa has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-6. His ERA is 5.08, along with a WHIP of 1.25. Festa’s last outing came on September 9th, where he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. He has lost each of his last three starts, giving up two earned runs in each of the two starts before the outing vs. the Angels. Festa has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four outings.
Carlos Santana has been one of the Twins’ best power hitters this season, as he leads the team with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. However, he is batting just .239 for the season. Santana has gone 5/14 in his last four games, including one home run and three RBIs. Ryan Jeffers is also near the top of the Twins’ home run and RBI leaderboards, as he has 20 homers and 61 RBIs, but is batting just .229.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game and have been one of the better home run hitting teams in the league this season. Overall, they are 8th in batting average and have the 6th best isolated power mark in the MLB. Minnesota’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are 5th in home runs and 9th in slugging, on-base percentage, and OPS.
Getting the Twins at -160 on the money line is a great value, as we have them winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 8.5 runs, there isn’t a ton of wiggle room, and we see this one being a high-scoring game, but we are sticking with the Twins on the money line.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher’s projections, David Festa is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, which would put him 10th among today’s starters. As for Rhett Lowder, he is projected to finish with six K’s, which would have him 11th.
Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
