Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Preview
At 2:10 PM ET, the Nationals and Brewers face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the betting favorite at -149. The money line odds for a Nationals win are sitting at +127, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.
Colin Rea will be starting for the Brewers, and he is facing off against Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Washington is 44-52 this season, and they are 4th in the NL East. The Brewers are 54-42 and have lost three straight.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Nationals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Brewers have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
It was a wild game in the most recent game of this Nationals vs Brewers series. Washington went into the matchup as +119 underdogs and squeaked out a 6-5 win. The Nationals had a huge 4th inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their final run in the 7th.
Mitchell Parker only went two-thirds of an inning for the Nationals but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Derek Law got the win out of the bullpen, and Kyle Finnegan got the save. Trevor Megill took the loss for Milwaukee out of the bullpen.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams each homered for the Nationals, while Juan Yepez went 2/4 with an RBI. Lane Thomas also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Washington’s offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington is 44-52 overall and 18.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals have an overall division record of 16-15. The Nationals have won two straight games, and they are up 2-0 in the series vs. the Brewers.
At home, the Nationals are 20-24 this year, and they are just under .500 at 24-28 on the road. As the underdog, the Nationals are 35-44 this season, and they have won two straight as the underdog. Washington’s overall series record is 11-17-2, and they have dropped two straight series.
The Nationals are 54-42 against the run line this season. They are 24-20 at home and 30-22 on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 46-33 as an underdog. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4 and -3.5 in losses.
Washington is on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers today. The O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 9 runs. The Nationals have played 32 games with O/U lines set higher than 8.5 runs, and their record in games with O/U lines of 8.5 runs is 14-16.
Jake Irvin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 7-7 with an ERA of 3.13. In his 19 appearances, Irvin has turned in 12 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note for Irvin is that he has a better record on the road, coming in at 5-2 with a 3.01 ERA compared to 2-5 with a 3.94 ERA at home.
For the season, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the same mark they have posted at home so far this season. As a team, they are batting .239, and their team on-base percentage of .309 is also below the league average. One area where they have been good is in terms of strikeouts, as they are the 6th hardest team to strike out in the league.
CJ Abrams comes into the game as the Nationals’ top power threat, as his 15 home runs are 13th in the MLB. However, he has struggled of late, going just 2/24 in his last six games. Luis Garcia Jr. has also been a good power source for the Nationals, as he is 2nd on the team with 11 homers and is currently on a six-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 7/21. Jesse Winker also has 11 homers this season and is 3rd on the team with 43 RBIs.
With an overall record of 54-42, the Brewers lead the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have dropped three straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10. Milwaukee has gone 21-12 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are 28-17 this season, and they are just above .500 at 26-25 on the road. Milwaukee has dropped two straight games as the favorite, and they are 32-21 overall when favored. As the underdog, the Brewers are 22-21 this season.
At home, the Brewers have a run line record of 22-23, with an average run margin of 0.8 runs per game. They have covered the run line in 49 of their 96 games overall, with a run line record of 27-24 on the road. They have been the underdog in 43 games and have covered the run line in 28 of those games.
The Milwaukee Brewers are playing at home against the Washington Nationals today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Brewers have been involved in games with an average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 51-41. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 23-16. So far this season, 20.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Right-hander Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Nationals at home. Rea has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 8-3 with a 3.81 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Rea took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Rea has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. His WHIP for the season is 1.22, and opponents are batting .232 off Rea this year.
Christian Yelich has been a bright spot for the Brewers offense this season, as he comes into the game batting .327, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. He also leads the team with 11 home runs and has gone deep three times over his last nine games. Rhys Hoskins has also homered three times in his last nine games but is batting just .215 for the season.
As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the better hitting teams in the league so far, with a team batting average of .254 (5th) and on-base percentage of .331 (3rd).
Given the payout, we really like the Nationals to pick up a win on the road today against the Brewers. If you’re looking for a payout, the Nationals are +127 on the money line, and that is our recommended bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jake Irvin finishing with six strikeouts, and he is projected to finish with the second-most earned runs among starters today. As for Colin Rea, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and his team, the Brewers, are projected to finish with 12th most strikeouts among teams today.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+127)
- The Nationals are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Jared Koenig | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
