Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Preview
The Nationals and Brewers are facing off in an NL matchup at 4:10 PM ET. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee and the Nationals are 4th in the NL East with a record of 43-52, while the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central at 54-41.
Milwaukee comes into the game as the heavy favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -130 compared to the Nationals at +110. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and BSWI will be televising this one.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Nationals in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
It was all Washington in the last game of this series, as the Nationals took down the Brewers by a score of 5-2. The Nationals offense only had two more hits than the Brewers and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +228 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Jackson Rutledge for the Nationals and Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Rutledge only went 4 2/3 innings but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Peralta was tagged for four runs in five innings of work.
Washington’s two-through-four hitters, Jesse Winker, Trey Lipscomb, and Juan Yepez, each had two hits and an RBI. Winker and Yepez both homered for the Nationals’ only two extra-base hits of the game.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington is 43-52 overall and 18.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they are 16-15 against other teams in the NL East. The Nationals took the series opener vs. the Brewers and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Nationals are 20-24 this year, and they have gone 23-28 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 34-44 compared to 9-8 as the favorite. The Nationals’ overall series record is 11-17-2, and they have lost two straight series.
Washington has been a solid run line bet this season, going 53-42 overall. They’ve been a bit better on the road, going 29-22 against the run line, compared to 24-20 at home. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 45-33 against the run line in those games. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while it’s -3.5 in losses.
The Washington Nationals are on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers today, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 44-47. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 5-7-2. The under has hit in three straight Nationals games.
Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA. Parker’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and opponents are batting .228 off him this year. In his last outing, Parker took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. Parker has made six quality starts this year and is averaging 7.27 strikeouts per nine innings.
As a team, the Nationals are batting just .238 this season, which is 12th in the league and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. This is also good for 20th in the MLB. The team’s home run numbers are also below average, as they are just 21st in the league in that category. Washington’s team OPS of .676 is also just 24th in the league.
CJ Abrams has been the Nationals’ top power threat this season, as his 14 home runs is 1st on the team and 14th in the league. He is also batting .270 for the season. Jesse Winker is 2nd on the team with 11 homers and has a batting average of .264. However, Winker has gone just 3/15 in his last five games.
Milwaukee comes into today’s game vs. the Nationals with a record of 54-41, which has them leading the NL Central by five games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning the final two games before the All-Star break. So far, they have gone 21-12 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are 28-16 this year and 26-25 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 32-20 and 22-21 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 17-10-3, but they have dropped two straight series.
The Brewers have been a solid run line bet this season, going 49-46 overall. They have been a much better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 28-15. They have been a .500 team on the run line at home, going 22-22. Their average run margin this season is +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, going 27-24. They have been a poor bet on the run line as the favorite, going 21-31. They have been a much better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 28-15.
With an over/under line of 9 runs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season. The Brewers have gone over the total in 50 of their 91 games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, the Brewers have gone over the total in just 2 of their 9 games.
Dallas Keuchel is set to make his first home start of the season for the Brewers, as they take on the Nationals. Keuchel has gone 4 innings in each of his first two starts, and he has 5 strikeouts in each outing. He has yet to factor into a decision, and in his last start, he gave up 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Rockies.
Christian Yelich has been one of the Brewers’ top hitters this season, batting .327 with 11 homers. He has also been hot of late, going 12/34 in his last 10 games with three homers. Rhys Hoskins has also hit three homers in his last nine games but is just 4/30 in that stretch and is batting just .214 for the season.
As a team, the Brewers are 10th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, the Brewers have the 4th best team batting average in the league and are 2nd in on-base percentage. So far, they have been a good home run hitting team, but their team ISO of .144 is just 18th in the league.
We are predicting this one to finish with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Nationals. Given that they are the underdogs at +110, we see them as a great value pick to win straight up. If you’re looking to place a bet on this one, we would recommend taking the Nationals on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Dallas Keuchel finishing with just four strikeouts, which is the second-worst among today’s starters. On the other hand, our projections have Mitchell Parker finishing with six strikeouts, which has him in the middle of the pack.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- We like the Nationals on the moneyline (+110)
- The Nationals are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Jared Koenig | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Out | Hamstring |
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow/Forearm |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
| Jose A. Ferrer | Out | Teres Major |
