Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
At 7:40 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have an NL Central matchup between the Cardinals and Brewers. The Cardinals are 69-69 and their money line odds are at +123, while the Brewers are 81-57 and they are the betting favorite at -146. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Steven Matz is starting for the Cardinals, while the Brewers are going with Aaron Civale. Milwaukee is currently in first place in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are in third. BSWI will be televising this one.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- The Cardinals are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 8-2 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Cardinals have won 6-4 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cardinals by a score of 9-3. The Brewers offense only had three more hits than the Cardinals and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -166 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Peralta only went 5 1/3 innings but gave up just three hits and two earned runs. On the other side, Pallante was tagged for five runs in five innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two-through-four hitters did the most damage, as Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, and Rhys Hoskins each homered and combined for nine RBIs. Chourio and Adames each scored twice for the Brewers’ offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is at an even 69-69 overall and is 12 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals lost the series opener vs. the Brewers, and they are 19-24 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Cardinals have gone 36-32 this year, and they are just below .500 at 33-37 on the road. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 36-35 this year and 33-34 when favored. St. Louis’ overall series record is 22-17-5, and they have won two straight series on the road.
When betting the run line on the St. Louis Cardinals, it’s wise to consider the underdog angle. The Cardinals have a run line record of 46-25 when getting runs, compared to 22-45 when laying them. Their overall run line record is 68-70, with an average run margin of -0.4 runs per game.
The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Cardinals games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 67-68. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 29-17. Overall, 25.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher, and their current over streak is at four games.
Steven Matz gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Brewers on the road. So far, he has made six starts and has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 6.18. Matz’s WHIP for the season is 1.74, and opponents are batting .325 off the left-hander this year. In his last outing, Matz finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Matz has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings.
For the season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 23rd in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 10th in the league, and have the 18th ranked slugging percentage in the league. St. Louis has been led offensively by Alec Burleson, who has 21 homers and 72 RBIs while batting .280.
Paul Goldschmidt has been hot of late, going 9/20 in his last five games, but he has yet to homer in that stretch. Goldschmidt is 2nd on the team with 20 homers. He is also on a nine-game hitting streak. The Cardinals’ lineup also features Masyn Winn, who is batting .281 and has 12 homers.
Milwaukee is 81-57 overall and leads the NL Central by 10 games over the Cubs. The Brewers have gone 30-17 against other teams in the NL Central this year. At home, the Brewers are 41-25 and have gone 40-32 on the road.
So far, the Brewers have been good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 47-32. As the underdog, they are 34-25 this year. Milwaukee has won three straight at home, and they have an overall series record of 24-15-4. This year, they have won three straight series.
When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game. In losses, they lose by an average of 2.8 runs per game. Their run line record is 72-66, and they are 33-33 at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 40-19 against the run line as underdogs.
The Milwaukee Brewers are playing at home against the St. Louis Cardinals today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 73-56. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 27-21. So far this season, 30 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, accounting for 21.7% of their games.
Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that start vs. the Giants, he went seven innings and gave up just two hits. Civale finished with seven strikeouts in that outing. Looking back further, he has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 5-8. Civale’s ERA for the season is 4.59, along with a WHIP of 1.34. Opposing batters are hitting .253 off Civale this season. Out of his 26 starts, he has seven quality starts and is averaging 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings.
Willy Adames has been on a tear for the Brewers over his last 10 games, hitting seven home runs while going 14/42 (.333) with 11 runs scored. Adames’ 29 home runs this season is 8th in the league and leads the Brewers. Overall, he is batting .255. Milwaukee’s top RBI man is also Rhys Hoskins, who has 70 RBIs but is batting just .211.
As a team, the Brewers are 5th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in batting average and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has been very good at not striking out, but they are just 12th in slugging percentage and 13th in isolated power.
The best way to play this Cardinals vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Brewers on the money line at -146. We have the Brewers winning this one by a score of 5-4, giving us some room to take them on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Steven Matz is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 14th among starters today. As for Aaron Civale, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts as well, which is 17th among starters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Hoby Milner | Out | Shoulder |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Finger |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
