Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Betting Tips 5/11/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The Cardinals and Brewers are set to face off in an NL Central matchup at 7:15 PM ET on Saturday. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee and features a Cardinals club that is 15-23 compared to the Brewers at 23-15. Kyle Gibson will go for the Cardinals, while the Brewers are sending Freddy Peralta to the mound.

Looking at the odds, the over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Brewers are the favorite at -174. If you’re looking to catch this one on TV, it is being carried by FOX.

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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats

• The Cardinals are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 0-5 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Brewers have gone 1-4 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.

It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cardinals by a score of 11-2. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Cardinals and struck out 10 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -124 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Robert Gasser for the Brewers and Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. Gasser only went six innings but didn’t give up a hit or a run and finished with four strikeouts. On the other side, Lynn was tagged for four runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.

Milwaukee’s two-through-five hitters did the most damage, as Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich, and Rhys Hoskins each had two RBIs. Adames, Yelich, and Sal Frelick each scored two runs for the Brewers’ offense.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

St. Louis is on the road today, and they have lost six straight games, including dropping the first two games of this series vs. the Brewers. Overall, the Cardinals are 15-23, which puts them eight games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are 0-5 in divisional games.

At home, the Cardinals are just 6-11 this year, and they are only one game above .500 at 9-12 on the road. This season, they are only 5-15 in day games. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 6-9 this year and 8-12 when favored. St. Louis’ overall series record is 5-7, and they have dropped three straight series.

When the Cardinals are on the road, they have a run line record of 10-11. They have a losing streak against the run line of three games. As the underdog, they have a run line record of 11-7. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.5, while it is -3.8 in losing games.

St. Louis has seen the over hit in three straight games, and the over has been a common outcome in their games this season. Their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game, and they have an over/under record of 15-22. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the over has hit in just two of their 11 games. Overall, 68.4% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Through seven starts, Gibson has a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.68. Looking at his overall numbers, he has made five quality starts and is averaging 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Gibson finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone six straight starts without giving up more than one earned run. So far, he has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 3.29 compared to 4.12 at home.

So far this season, the Cardinals are averaging just 3.4 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. One of the few bright spots for the Cardinals has been the play of Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, as Arenado is batting .280 with two homers and 20 RBIs, while Contreras is also hitting .280 and has a team-high six homers.

Over his last four games, Alec Burleson has gone 5/14 with one homer and three RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .357. Willson Contreras has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 3/9 in his last three games. Michael Siani is currently on a six-game hitting streak for the Cardinals.

Milwaukee is hosting the Cardinals today with an overall record of 23-15, good for 1st place in the NL Central. The Brewers hold a half-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. So far, they have gone 10-5 in divisional matchups. The Brewers have won two straight games, and they have won four straight at home, where they are 9-7 this year.

So far, the Brewers have been really good in day games, going 15-6 this season. As the underdog, Milwaukee has gone 13-9, and they are 10-6 when favored. Looking at their overall series record, the Brewers are 6-4-2 and lost two straight series before winning the last two series.

The Brewers are 20-18 against the run line this season, including a 6-10 mark at home. They have covered the run line in four straight games at home and are 15-7 against the run line as the underdog this season. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7, while it’s -3.5 in losses.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on a four-game over streak, and their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 23-15, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 4-4. So far this season, 71.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. Against the Cubs, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Peralta has finished with a no-decision in three of them. Peralta’s ERA for the season is 3.49, along with a record of 3-1. Opponents are batting .167 this season vs. Peralta, and his WHIP is currently .98. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 11.64 strikeouts per nine innings.

William Contreras comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and has gone 11/34 in his last nine games. For the season, he is batting .340 and leads the Brewers with 30 RBIs. Willy Adames has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 9/36 in his last nine games with three homers and 10 RBIs. Adames has seven homers for the season, which is 2nd on the team and 6th in the league.

As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in scoring at 5.1 runs per game, and they are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. They have been especially good at home this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 6th ranked home run hitting team in the league.

Our prediction for today’s Cardinals vs. Brewers game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. We actually have the Brewers winning this one by a score of 5-4, but with the payout for a Brewers win sitting at -174, we are looking to the over.

Looking at today’s starters, we have Freddy Peralta finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing as the fourth-best starter in terms of Ks. As for Kyle Gibson, we have him finishing with five strikeouts, which would have him as the 19th best starter in terms of Ks.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips

• Take the Brewers on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report