Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
From American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have an NL Central matchup between the Cardinals and Brewers. First pitch on Friday night is set for 8:10 PM. The Brewers are the favorite at -138, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
Robert Gasser is starting for the Brewers, and he is facing off against Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. St. Louis comes in with a record of 15-22, while the Brewers are currently 22-15.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – St. Louis Cardinals odds
Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Cardinals are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 0-5 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Brewers have gone 1-4 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- The Brewers have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Cardinals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cardinals by a score of 7-1. The Brewers offense only had three more hits than the Cardinals and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +119 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Tobias Myers for the Brewers and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. Myers only went four innings but gave up just one hit and one earned run. On the other side, Gray was tagged for three homers and six runs in five innings of work.
Milwaukee’s three homers came from Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers, and Joey Ortiz. Hoskins, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich each had two RBIs for the Brewers’ offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is on the road today, and they are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes losing the first game of this series vs. the Brewers. The Cardinals are 15-22 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 0-4 in divisional games.
The Cardinals are seven games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. St. Louis has really struggled in day games this year, going 5-14. As the favorite, the Cardinals are 8-12 and 7-10 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Cardinals are 5-7 and have dropped three straight series.
When the Cardinals are on the road, they have been a pretty safe bet to cover the run line, as they are 10-10 in that department. However, they have failed to cover the run line in three straight road games. As the favorite, they are just 7-13 against the run line, but as the underdog, they are 11-6. Their average run differential in wins is +2.5, but in losses, it is -3.5.
St. Louis has been involved in 36 games this season with an average of 8.0 runs per game, and the over/under record for the Cardinals is 14-22. The over/under line for today’s game against the Brewers is set at 8 runs. So far this season, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for six of the Cardinals’ games, and the over/under record in those games is 1-4-1. Overall, 51.4% of the Cardinals’ games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.
Lance Lynn is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the White Sox, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that May 4th outing, he gave up three homers. Lynn finished with a no-decision in the game. Overall, he has made seven starts and has a record of 1-0 with an ERA of 3.28. Opponents are batting .243 vs. Lynn this season. The right-hander has a WHIP of 1.40 and has issued 4.04 walks per nine innings compared to 8.33 strikeouts.
St. Louis comes into the game as one of the worst offensive teams in the league, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. This has them 29th in the league. So far, they have been a little better at home, averaging 3.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .217 and have a collective on-base percentage of .296.
Nolan Arenado has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/18 in his last five games with four RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Arenado is batting .286 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 20 RBIs. Brendan Donovan has four homers this season but is batting just .217.
Milwaukee is 22-15 overall this season, putting them a half-game ahead of the Cubs for the NL Central lead. The Brewers are 9-5 against other teams in the NL Central. They have won three straight games at home, and their overall record at home is 8-7. On the road, the Brewers have gone 14-8 this season.
So far, the Brewers have been good as the underdog, putting together a mark of 13-9 in those games. As the favorite, the Brewers are 9-6 this year. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 6-4-2, and they had lost two straight series before taking the first game of this series vs. the Cardinals.
When betting on the Brewers’ run line, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 14-8. They are just 5-10 vs. the run line at home, where they have a negative scoring margin. As an underdog, they are 15-7 vs. the run line.
The Milwaukee Brewers have had a high over/under line in their games this season, with 62.2% of their games having lines set above 8 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 22-15, and their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game. Their over streak is at 3 games, and their last game went over the total of 7.5 runs.
For today’s game against the Cardinals, the Brewers will rely on Robert Gasser to set the tone. It’s his debut for the season and he’s looking to put together a strong start in his debut.
William Contreras has been a big part of the Brewers’ offense this season, as he is hitting .340 with five home runs and 30 RBIs. His batting average and RBI total are both the best on the team. He is currently on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 8/24 in his last six games. Rhys Hoskins and Willy Adames have also been key power threats for the Brewers, as Hoskins has eight homers and Adames has gone deep seven times.
As a team, the Brewers are 7th in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and have the 5th best isolated power figure in the league.
Our predicted final score for this one is 7-6 in favor of the Brewers. With the money line sitting at -138, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at some potential props, you could look at the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn to finish with seven strikeouts, as he is projected to finish with the second-most among starters today.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 13 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Freddy Peralta | Out | Suspension |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Carpenter | Out | Oblique |
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Arm |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Giovanny Gallegos | Out | Shoulder |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
