Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Pirates and Brewers is set to get started at 2:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI. The Brewers are currently 1st in the NL Central with a record of 54-39, while the Pirates are 3rd in the division with an overall record of 44-48.
The over/under line for Thursday’s game is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Brewers are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at +106. The money line odds for a Pirates win are at -125. Aaron Civale is set to start for the Brewers, while the Pirates are sending Paul Skens to the mound.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Pirates in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Pirates have a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 5-5 against the runline.
- As the underdog, the Brewers have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Pirates by a score of 9-0. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Pirates and struck out six more times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -161 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Tobias Myers for the Brewers and Martin Perez for the Pirates. Myers went eight innings and didn’t give up a run as he picked up a win in the game. On the other side, Perez only went 4 2/3 innings and gave up five earned runs, taking the loss.
Milwaukee’s two and three hitters, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins, each homered and combined for five RBIs. Sal Frelick also had a three-hit game and scored two runs for the Brewers’ offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is 44-48 overall and 9.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are 14-14 in divisional games. The Pirates will be looking to pick up a win today, as they are 5.5 games behind the Cardinals for the 2nd spot in the division.
At home, the Pirates are 22-24 this season and have gone 22-24 on the road. Heading into game three vs. the Brewers, the Pirates have won three straight games as the favorite. As the favorite overall, Pittsburgh is 18-19 and 26-29 as the underdog. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 11-12-5 this year.
When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a solid bet this season, going 50-42. They have been especially good on the road, going 27-19. They have covered the run line in their last two games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 37-18.
Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Pirates games this season is 8.5 runs, and their over/under record is 44-47. The average over/under line for Pittsburgh games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 6-11. Overall, 73.9% of Pirates games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at three games.
Right-hander Paul Skenes is getting the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Skenes has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 5-0 with an ERA of 2.12. In his last outing, he gave up 2 earned runs in 7 innings of work, picking up the win in the process. Skenes has been solid recently, as he has allowed just one earned run in three of his last four outings. Opponents are batting .217 this season off Skenes, and his WHIP is 1.01. This year, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 11.83 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. This is a team that has been better on the road (4.3 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). Overall, they are batting just .230, which is 17th in the league. However, they do have the 12th most homers in the league and have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late.
Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .280 with 17 homers and 56 RBIs. He has also been hot of late, going 12/32 in his last 10 games. Oneil Cruz is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 14 homers and 41 RBIs this season.
Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central with a record of 54-39, which has them 5.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. The Brewers are 21-11 against other teams in the NL Central. Milwaukee is looking to take today’s game vs. the Pirates after dropping yesterday’s game.
At home, the Brewers are 28-14 this year, and they have gone 26-25 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 32-19 this year, and they are 22-20 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 16-9-3.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average margin of victory of 3.5 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose big, with an average margin of defeat of -2.9 runs per game. Overall, they are just under .500 against the run line at 48-45, and they are 21-21 at home and 27-24 on the road.
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen a lot of high-scoring games this season, as their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record is 50-39, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they are 14-4. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game overall, and they have gone over the line in 75.3% of their games. They have gone over the line in three straight games.
Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces off against the Pirates. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 2-6 with an ERA of 5.18. Opponents are batting .266 off Civale this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.39. Civale has turned in three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Dodgers, he gave up three homers. Civale has not taken the loss in his last three outings, finishing with a no-decision in each.
Christian Yelich has been on a tear of late for the Brewers, hitting .391 over his last seven games with three homers and seven runs scored. For the season, he is batting .335 with 11 homers, which is 2nd on the team. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are tied for the team lead with 14 homers, but Adames has the better batting average of the two, hitting .240 compared to Hoskins’ mark of .218.
As a team, the Brewers are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the best on-base percentage in the MLB.
Our pick for today’s Pirates vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Brewers on the money line at +106. We see this being a close game, with our predicted final score being 5-4 in favor of the Brewers.
Looking at today’s starters, we have Aaron Civale finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing 13th among starters. As for the Pirates starter, Paul Skenes, we have him finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him finishing sixth among starters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+106)
- On the run line we like Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Joey Ortiz | Out | Neck |
| Jared Koenig | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Bailey Falter | Out | Arm |
| Oneil Cruz | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| David Bednar | Out | Oblique |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Jared Jones | Out | Lat |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Triceps |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
