Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The money line odds for Wednesday’s matchup between the Pirates and Brewers have the Brewers as the favorite, with their payout sitting at -144. On the other side, the Pirates have a money line payout of +122, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 1:10 PM ET, and BSWI is carrying the game on TV. Martín Pérez is starting for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Robert Gasser. The Brewers are 1st in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 3rd with a record of 19-24.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Pirates in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Pirates have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 7-3 against the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Brewers vs. Pirates series. Milwaukee went into the matchup as -158 favorites and squeaked out a 4-3 win. Pittsburgh had a late rally, scoring one run in the 9th, but Trevor Megill closed things out for the Brewers.
Joe Ross got the win for Milwaukee, going five innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a costly home run. As for the Pirates, Quinn Priester got the start and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work.
At the plate, the Brewers were led by Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich, and Brice Turang, as they were the only three Milwaukee hitters to have more than one hit. Frelick and Yelich each drove in two runs. As for the Pirates, Nick Gonzales went 1/3 with a home run and two RBIs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 19-24 overall and trail the Brewers by 6.5 games in the NL Central. So far, they are 4-5 in divisional matchups. Pittsburgh will be on the road today, and they are 10-12 on the road compared to 9-12 at home.
So far, the Pirates have dropped two straight series, and their overall series record is 4-6-3. As the favorite, the Pirates are just 6-12 this year but have been better at 13-12 as the underdog. Pittsburgh is 9-8 as the road underdog this season.
The Pirates have been a good team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 23-20 overall. They have been especially good on the run line as the underdog, going 18-7. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and have covered the run line in six straight games as the underdog.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have played 42 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs in 16 of them. In those games, the over has hit 10 times and the under has hit 6 times. The Pirates have a combined run average of 8.1 runs per game this season, and their games have gone over the total 19 times and under 23 times. The average over/under line in their games this season has been 8 runs per game.
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Brewers on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 3.60. Looking at his overall numbers, Pérez has a WHIP of 1.40 and opponents are batting .276 this season. In his eight starts, Pérez has turned in three quality starts and is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The left-hander’s most recent outing came on May 8th, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are 26th in the league in scoring, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .223, which is 23rd in the league, and are also in the bottom half of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Connor Joe and Oneil Cruz have been leading the Pirates offense of late, with Joe going 4/12 in his last three games with three homers and Cruz hitting .400 over his last five games. Cruz also has two homers during this stretch. Joe is currently on a five-game hitting streak, while Cruz has hit safely in eight straight games.
Milwaukee is hosting the Pirates today with an overall record of 25-17, which has them leading the NL Central by 1.5 games. The Brewers are 12-7 in divisional matchups this season. So far, they are 11-9 at home and have gone 14-8 on the road.
The Brewers have an overall series record of 7-4-2 this season, and they are 12-8 as the favorite. As for their overall record, the Brewers have gone 13-9 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall record is 5-5 heading into today’s matchup vs. the Pirates.
When the Brewers win, they win big. They have an average run margin of 3.6 in their victories, but when they lose, it’s by an average of 3.2 runs. They have a run line record of 21-21, and they are 14-8 against the run line on the road. They are 7-13 against the run line at home and 6-14 against the run line as the favorite.
So far this season, the Milwaukee Brewers have played 42 games. In 25 of those games, the total number of runs scored was more than the over/under line set by oddsmakers. The Brewers’ games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and the over/under line for their games has averaged 8 runs. In games where the over/under line was set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit 16 times and the under has hit 7 times. Overall, the over has hit in 59.5% of their games this season.
Robert Gasser gets the start for the Brewers at home against the Pirates. He is coming off a strong outing in his first start of the season, as he went 6 innings and picked up the win. Gasser struck out 4 and only gave up 2 hits in that outing.
William Contreras has been on a tear of late for the Brewers, going 14/31 in his last eight games. For the season, he is batting .352 with a team-high 30 RBIs. Contreras also has a team-high five home runs. Rhys Hoskins is also near the top of the league in homers, as he has nine this season, which is 5th best in the league. He has gone deep three times in his last six games while batting .316.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in batting average and have the league’s 5th best home run total. Not only is their team batting average good, but they also have the league’s 2nd best BABIP.
There are a few ways to play this game, but we recommend sticking with the Brewers on the money line at -144. We have the Brewers winning this one 5-4, giving us a little bit of wiggle room if you wanted to take them on the run line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Robert Gasser is projected to finish with six strikeouts, while Martin Perez is projected to finish with just four. Perez is also projected to give up five hits compared to Gasser, who is projected to give up seven.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
