Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Joe Ross and the Brewers will look to extend their two-game winning streak on Tuesday when they host the Pirates. This NL Central matchup has a first pitch of 7:40 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. SN PT will be televising this game, and the Pirates are 3rd in the NL Central with a record of 19-23, while the Brewers lead the division at 24-17.
Milwaukee is the heavy favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -155 compared to the Pirates at +130. Tuesday’s over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs. Quinn Priester is starting for the Pirates, while the Brewers are sending Joe Ross to the mound.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Pirates in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- The Brewers, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Brewers have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Pirates have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Pittsburgh rallied for two runs in the 8th inning in the most recent game of this Pirates vs. Brewers series. The Pirates scored two runs in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the top of the 8th, picking up an 8-6 win. Heading into the game, the Pirates were at +118 on the money line.
Mitch Keller started for the Pirates and went six innings, giving up eight hits and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while David Bednar got the save. Colin Rea had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.
Offensively, the Pirates were led by Bryan Reynolds, who went 5/5 with a home run. Reynolds scored three times and drove in two runs. Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen each had two hits and two RBIs. Oneil Cruz also had a two-hit game and drove in a run.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is 19-23 overall and 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Pirates are 4-4 in divisional games this year. The Pirates took the first game of this series vs. the Brewers and will look to build on their .500 record over their last 10 games.
At home, the Pirates are just 9-12 this year, but they have been better on the road at 10-11. So far, the Pirates have really struggled as the favorite, going 6-12. As for their record as the underdog, they are 13-11 this year. The Pirates’ overall series record is 4-6-3, and they have dropped two straight series.
When it comes to the run line, the Pirates have been a solid bet this season, going 22-20 overall. They have been especially good as the underdog, going 17-7 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.2.
The Pirates’ over/under record for the season is 19-22, with an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over is 10-5. This season, 57.1% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total. The Pirates have had three games with higher lines than today’s, and their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game.
Quinn Priester and the Pirates are on the road to take on the Brewers. Priester has started 3 games this season and has taken the loss in each of them. In his last start, he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up 5 runs, but he did strike out 7 batters. He has given up a total of 3 home runs in his 3 starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 26th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .226, which is 21st in the league, and their collective on-base percentage of .306 is also below average. One thing they have done well is draw walks, as they are currently 3rd in the league in that category.
Connor Joe and Oneil Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power threats so far, as they are tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece. Joe comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak and has two homers in his last five games. Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/23 in his last six games with two homers.
Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central by a half-game over the Cubs, and they are 24-17 overall. The Brewers have dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 over their last 10. This season, they have gone 11-7 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are 10-9 this season and 14-8 on the road. So far, they have been good as the underdog, going 13-9, and they are 11-8 as the favorite. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 7-4-2 this year.
The Brewers have been a profitable team on the run line this season, going 21-20 overall. However, they have been much better on the road, where they are 14-8 against the run line. At home, they are just 7-12 vs. the run line. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 15-7 vs. the run line in those games.
So far this season, the Milwaukee Brewers have played in 41 games with an average combined run total of 9.4. Their over/under record is 25-16, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-6. In 4 of their games, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, and the over has hit in 3 of those games.
Right-hander Joe Ross gets the start for the Brewers today and comes in with a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 4.75. So far, he has made two quality starts and is averaging 7.25 strikeouts per nine innings. Ross has made seven starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.47. In his most recent outing, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Ross has given up at least two homers in three of them. His ERA at home is 7.46 compared to 2.86 on the road.
William Contreras comes into the game as the Brewers’ leading hitter this season, batting .354 with a team-high 30 RBIs. He has been even better of late, hitting .395 over his last 10 games. Rhys Hoskins has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 7/28 in his last nine games, including three homers. For the season, he is batting just .233.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, also averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s best hitting teams, with a batting average of .256. One of the things that has helped them is their ability to put the ball in play, as they are 2nd in the league in BABIP.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Pirates game is that the Brewers will pick up the win by a final score of 5-4. If you’re looking to place a bet on the money line, then we would recommend taking the Brewers straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Joe Ross finishing with six strikeouts compared to Quinn Priester with five. Ross is also predicted to finish with fewer hits allowed than Priester and is a better option if you’re looking to place a bet on the starting pitchers.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Rhys Hoskins | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
