Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Monday’s matchup between the Pirates and Brewers is set for 7:40 PM from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers come in with a record of 24-16, while the Pirates are currently 18-23. Colin Rea is set to start for the Brewers, and he is facing off against Mitch Keller for the Pirates.
Milwaukee is the favorite at -139, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. This NL Central matchup can be seen on BSWI.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – Pittsburgh Pirates odds
Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Pirates have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 1-4 performance on the runline.
- Conversely, the Brewers have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- As the favorite, the Brewers are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Pirates have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Cubs scored three runs in the top of the 10th. Pittsburgh was the -102 favorite at home going into the game.
Bailey Falter put together a good start for the Pirates, going six innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out one. However, the Pirates couldnjson’t close things out, and Aroldis Chapman took the loss out of the bullpen. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Connor Joe, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/4.
Pittsburgh is on the road today, facing the Brewers with an overall record of 18-23, which puts them 3rd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 6.5 games and are 3-4 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Pirates are 9-12 this year and 9-11 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 12-11 this year, compared to 6-12 as the favorite. So far, they have dropped four straight games on the road, and their overall series record is 4-6-3.
When the Pirates win, they do so by an average of 2.6 runs per game. When they lose, they do so by an average of 3.2 runs per game. They are 21-20 against the run line this season, including 16-7 as an underdog. Their run line record on the road is 11-9, but they have failed to cover in their last three road games.
So far this season, the Pirates have played in 40 games with an average over/under line of 8 runs. Their over/under record is 18-22, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 4-6. Their games have averaged exactly 8 runs per game, and 41.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.
Mitch Keller is looking to build off his last outing, where he pitched a complete game vs. the Angels. In that outing, he only gave up one earned run and got the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Keller has made eight starts, has a record of 3-3, and an ERA of 4.41. Opposing batters are hitting .253 off Keller this season. He has turned in three quality starts and is averaging 8.08 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Keller has given up six homers. Per nine innings, he is giving up 2.94 walks on the road compared to 4.3 at home.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. The Pirates are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of just .222.
Oneil Cruz and Connor Joe have been carrying the Pirates’ offense of late, with both players batting over .375 in their last four games. Cruz has two homers in this stretch, while Joe has gone deep twice. Joe is currently on a six-game hitting streak, while Cruz has a four-game streak.
Milwaukee is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 4-3 loss to St. Louis, Bryse Wilson was excellent on the mound, allowing just two runs while pitching four innings. The Brewers also got a big offensive performance from Christian Yelich, going 3/3 with a run scored.
Elvis Peguero took the loss out of the bullpen for the Brewers, as Milwaukee allowed a run in the top of the 9th to blow their lead. The Brewers were also the -154 favorite at home going into the game.
Milwaukee is hosting the Pirates today with an overall record of 24-16, good for 1st place in the NL Central. The Brewers hold a half-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. So far, they have gone 11-6 in divisional matchups. The Brewers took the series vs. the Cardinals, winning three of four games.
At home, the Brewers are 10-8 this year and have been really good on the road at 14-8. As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 11-7 this year, and they are 13-9 as the underdog. Today’s game will be the 2nd game of their series vs. the Pirates, and the Brewers’ overall series record is 7-4-2 this year. So far, they are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
The Brewers have been a profitable run line team this season, going 21-19 overall. They have been even better on the road, where they are 14-8 against the run line. As the underdog, they are 15-7 vs. the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it is -3.3 in losses.
With an average combined run total of 9.3 runs per game, the Milwaukee Brewers have seen their games go over the total in 24 of 40 games this season. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, but when the line has been set at 8 runs, the over has gone 0-3. The over/under line for today’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is 8 runs.
Milwaukee is sending Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Pirates, and he has made seven starts this season. Rea’s ERA is 3.29, and he has a record of 3-0. Looking at his overall numbers, Rea has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 5.87 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had not allowed a homer in two straight starts. Rea’s ERA at home is 3.0 compared to 3.57 on the road.
William Contreras comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak, and over his last 10 games, he has gone 13/37 (.351) with five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .346 and is 6th in the league with 30 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins and Willy Adames are the team’s top home run hitters, but Hoskins is batting just .227, and Adames isn’t far ahead at .258.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in scoring at 5.1 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, also averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the league’s 5th best batting average.
Our predictions for this game have the Brewers taking this one by a score of 5-5.1. With the money line payout for a Brewers win sitting at -139, this is the best way to go about betting on this game.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Mitch Keller is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the highest of any starter today. As for the Brewers’ starter, Colin Rea, he is projected to finish with five K’s.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joel Payamps | Out | Personal |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
