Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/18/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorites (+101). The money line odds have the Brewers at -119.

Wednesday’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and MLBN will be televising this one. Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies, and he is facing off against Freddy Peralta. The Phillies lead the NL East, while the Brewers are atop the NL Central.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Brewers have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
• The Phillies have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Philadelphia cruised to a 5-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -141 on the money line.

Zack Wheeler pitched well for the Phillies in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, Frankie Montas got the start for the Brewers and gave up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.

At the plate, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos each homered for the Phillies. Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber each had two RBIs. Turner went 3/5 with a stolen base.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With an overall record of 91-60, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Mets. The Phillies are 27-18 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been solid at home, going 52-26, and they are just above .500 on the road at 39-34.

Philadelphia has been good as the favorite this year, going 78-45, and they are 27-22 as the favorite on the road. The Phillies have an overall series record of 27-16-7, and they have won two straight series. So far, they are 1-1 in their series vs. the Brewers. Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 6-4 over their last 10.

When betting the Phillies on the run line this season, it has been a profitable endeavor as they have a 73-78 record. They have been a better bet on the road (38-35) than at home (35-43). Their average run margin in games they have won is 3.9, while in their losses, it’s -3.9.

When the Phillies are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Philadelphia games is 70-73, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 17-18-2. The over/under line has been set at 8 runs for 48.3% of their games this season.

Right-hander Aaron Nola is on the mound for the Phillies today as he gets the start vs. the Brewers on the road. Nola has made 30 starts this year and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.62. In his 30 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 18 quality starts. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. Looking back at his recent outings, Nola has taken the loss in each of his last two starts. Most recently, he gave up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work vs. the Mets. Before that, he allowed four earned runs vs. the Marlins. So far, he has been much better at home, with an ERA of 3.81 compared to 4.71 on the road.

Philadelphia comes into the game with one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting .258 as a team, which is the 4th best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Phillies have been a patient team at the plate, as they are 7th in the league in walks and have the league’s 5th best on-base percentage.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, with Schwarber’s 35 homers leading the team and Harper’s 29 homers being the 2nd most on the team and 13th most in the MLB. Harper has been hot of late, going 10/28 in his last seven games with three homers.

Milwaukee is currently 87-64 overall and leads the NL Central by 10 games over the Cubs. The Brewers are 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. They are at home today, where they are 43-30 this season compared to 44-34 on the road.

As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 50-36 this year and 37-28 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 27-17-4, and they have won two straight series. The Brewers are 6-4 across their last 10 games and are coming off a series loss to the Cubs.

When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per victory. However, when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -2.8 runs per defeat. Their overall run line record is 78-73, and they have been a better bet on the road (43-35) than at home (35-38). They have been a better bet as an underdog (44-21) than as a favorite (34-52).

The Milwaukee Brewers have an over/under record of 77-64 this season, with an average over/under line of 8 runs per game. When the line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 11-11-5. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.8 runs per game. Overall, 82 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 54.3% of their games.

Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing, he only gave up four hits and issued four walks. Looking back further, Peralta has won three of his last four starts. For the season, he has a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 3.75. Opposing batters are hitting .221 off Peralta this season. The right-hander has a total of 11 quality starts this year and is averaging 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings.

William Contreras and Willy Adames have been two of the Brewers’ most consistent hitters this season. Adames comes into the game with a team-high 32 home runs and is batting .249, while Contreras is hitting .281 with 22 homers. Adames also leads the Brewers with 109 RBIs, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Rhys Hoskins has 24 homers but is batting just .209.

Adames and Contreras have been in a bit of a power slump, as Adames has just two homers in his last eight games, and Contreras has gone deep only once over that stretch. However, Garrett Mitchell and Jackson Chourio have both hit two homers in their last seven and eight games, respectively. Mitchell is 7/22 in his last seven games, while Chourio is 9/33 in his last eight games.

Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Brewers game is to take the Brewers on the money line at -119. We have the Brewers winning this one by a score of 5-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for sixth among all starters.

As for Aaron Nola, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for eighth. However, we have Nola finishing with an ERA of 4.00 compared to Peralta at 3.50.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Brewers on the moneyline
• The Brewers should also cover at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report