Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Preview
The Marlins and Brewers are set to face off in an NL matchup at 7:10 PM ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee. However, the Marlins are the underdog on the money line (+136), while the Brewers are the favorites at -162. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Miami will be starting Max Meyer, while the Brewers are sending Aaron Civale to the mound. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East. BSFL will be televising this one.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- The Marlins are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 3-7 straight-up, and have gone 2-8 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
Miami rallied for three runs in the 9th inning in the most recent game of this series, picking up a 6-2 win over the Brewers. The Marlins had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +199 on the money line.
Trevor Rogers got the win for the Marlins, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with just one strikeout and allowed one home run. Freddy Peralta had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss after going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs.
Miami’s two biggest hitters were Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell, as they were the only two Marlins hitters to have more than one hit. De La Cruz, Jake Burger, and Nick Fortes each had one home run for Miami.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 38-66 overall and trail the Phillies by 26.5 games in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 9-21 in divisional games. The Marlins are currently winning their series vs. the Brewers and have an overall series record of 9-21-3 this year.
At home, the Marlins are 22-34 this year and have gone 16-32 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 34-53 this year, compared to 4-13 as the favorite. They have been playing well recently, going 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When betting the run line, the Miami Marlins have been a solid play this season, going 49-55 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 24-24. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog. They have been a terrible bet as a favorite, going just 2-15 on the run line.
In the Miami Marlins’ last five games, the over has hit each time. The Marlins have an over/under record of 57-45 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, the over has hit in 15 of their 25 games.
Max Meyer and the Marlins are on the road to take on the Brewers. Meyer has been solid in his first two starts, picking up wins in both outings. He went 6 innings in each start, striking out 3 against the Cardinals and 7 against the Braves.
Josh Bell has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/34 in his last nine games with four home runs. For the season, he is batting just .236, but his 13 homers are good for 2nd on the team. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger also have 13 homers this season. Chisholm Jr. is batting .249 for the season, and Burger comes in at .231.
As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in scoring at 3.6 runs per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4 runs per contest. For the season, they are batting .236, which is 15th in the league, and have the league’s worst on-base percentage. Miami’s team slugging percentage of .360 is also near the bottom of the league.
Milwaukee is 59-44 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. Currently, they are six games ahead of the Cardinals for the division lead. The Brewers will be looking to bounce back today, as they dropped the first game of the series vs. the Marlins.
So far, the Brewers have gone 23-13 in divisional games. At home, they are 29-18 this season compared to 30-26 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 33-23 and 26-21 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 19-11-3, and they have won two straight series.
The Brewers are 23-24 against the run line at home this season, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game. They are 31-25 against the run line on the road, with an average run margin of +0.7 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 32-15 against the run line, but as the favorite, they are just 22-34.
When the Milwaukee Brewers play at home, the over/under line is set at an average of 8 runs per game. This season, the over/under record for Brewers games is 55-44, with an average combined run total of 8.7 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the record is 6-7-1. Overall, 59.2% of Milwaukee’s games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces off against the Marlins. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 5.00. So far, Civale has made four quality starts, and his ERA at home is 4.18 compared to 6.46 on the road. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
William Contreras has been one of the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as he is 2nd on the team with 11 homers and is batting .286. His 57 RBIs are also the 2nd most on the team. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are tied for the team lead with 16 homers, with Adames also leading the team with 68 RBIs. Adames comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 8/20.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in home batting average, averaging 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in runs scored. The Brewers have been a good team at avoiding strikeouts this season and are one of the league’s best teams in terms of on-base percentage.
Our pick for this Marlins vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Marlins on the money line at +136. We have the Marlins winning this one by a score of 6-4. With the Marlins projected to pick up the win, there is a good amount of value in taking them on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Max Meyer is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, and we have him finishing with a lower ERA than Aaron Civale. Civale is projected to finish with five strikeouts.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+136)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
