Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Preview
The Marlins and Brewers are set to face off in an NL matchup at 8:10 PM ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Marlins are 37-66 this season, which has them in 5th place in the NL East, while the Brewers are 59-43 and they sit atop the NL Central.
Friday’s money line odds have the Brewers at -227, while the Marlins are the +189 underdog. The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and BSWI will be televising this one.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- The Marlins are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
- Conversely, the Brewers have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 4-6 straight-up, and have gone 3-7 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Orioles scored three runs in the top of the 8th. Miami was the +178 underdog at home going into the game.
Rodder Muñoz had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on six hits and issuing two walks. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Josh Bell, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/5.
Miami is 37-66 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 27.5 games in the division. So far, they have gone just 9-21 in divisional games. The Marlins are just 15-32 on the road compared to 22-34 at home. They have really struggled as the favorite this year, going 4-13, and they are 33-53 as the underdog.
The Marlins have split their last ten games, and they won their most recent series vs. the Orioles. Miami is 9-21-3 in series play this year, and they will be opening up a new series vs. the Brewers today.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they have been a good bet on the run line this season, posting a 46-40 record. In their last three games getting the run line as the underdog, they have covered each time. Miami’s average run differential in losing games is -3.7 runs per game, while in their wins, they are +2.6 runs per game.
When the Miami Marlins hit the road to take on the Milwaukee Brewers, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Marlins have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 56-45 on the season, and they have gone over the total in 73.8% of their games when the line is set at 7.5 runs. Miami is currently on a four-game over streak.
Miami is sending left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 1-9 with an ERA of 4.59. Rogers has a WHIP of 1.55 and has issued 4.14 walks per nine innings compared to 7.56 strikeouts. Looking back at his last outing, Rogers finished with a no-decision vs. the Mets, giving up one earned run in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has not won a game since May 19th.
The Marlins offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the MLB. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. As a team, the Marlins are batting just .236, and their on-base percentage of .288 is 21st in the league.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. comes into the game as the Marlins’ leader in RBIs (50) and is 2nd on the team with 13 homers. Bryan De La Cruz has gone deep 17 times this season, which is 12th in the league, and is 2nd on the team with 47 RBIs. Over his last six games, Josh Bell is hitting .333 with three homers, and Xavier Edwards has gone 8/18 in that stretch.
Heading into their last game vs. the Cubs, the Brewers closed out the series with a 3-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +126 on the money line. It was a big 1st inning for the Brewers, as they got on the board with a run and added another run in the 3rd.
Jakob Junis put together a good start for the Brewers, going seven innings and giving up just two runs on six hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
Milwaukee is hosting the Marlins today with a record of 59-43, which has them leading the NL Central by six games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have won two straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Cubs with a win. So far, they have gone 23-13 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Brewers are 29-17 this year and have gone 30-26 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee is 33-22, and they are 26-21 as the underdog. The Brewers’ overall series record is 19-11-3, and they have won two straight series.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.4 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of -2.8 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 54-48, and they’ve been a better bet on the road (31-25) than at home (23-23). They’ve been a better bet as an underdog (32-15) than as a favorite (22-33).
The Milwaukee Brewers are at home today against the Miami Marlins, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Brewers have had a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 54-44. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs this season, the over has hit in 16 of their 22 games.
Freddy Peralta is coming off a solid outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Against the Twins on July 20th, he went six innings, giving up just two hits and two walks. Peralta finished with eight strikeouts in the outing. For the game, he made 20 appearances, 20 starts, and has a record of 6-5. Peralta’s ERA for the season is 3.88, along with a WHIP of 1.17. This year, opponents are batting .210 off Peralta. The right-hander has made eight quality starts and is averaging 11.39 strikeouts per nine innings.
William Contreras comes into the game as the Brewers’ 3rd leading hitter this season, batting .284, and he has also been a big run producer for the team, with 57 RBIs. Willy Adames has been the team’s top power threat, as his 16 home runs is 1st on the team and 8th in the league. Adames is also on an 8-game hitting streak and has gone 10/23 in his last six games.
As a team, the Brewers are 8th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 5th best team batting average and have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league.
Our predicted final score for this Brewers vs. Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers. However, with the money line payout for the Brewers being -227, we will be looking to the over/under market for our bet.
We are predicting this one to go over the 7.5 run line, and with a payout of -117, this is a bet we feel good about. Looking at some potential player props, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among starters today.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
