Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Reds and Brewers are facing off in an NL Central matchup at 7:10 PM ET. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the heavy favorites on the money line (-136). The Reds have a money line payout of +115, and they are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 56-60.
Today’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and BSWI will be televising this one. Tobias Myers is starting for the Brewers, while the Reds are going with Nick Martinez. Milwaukee comes in with a record of 66-49 and has won four straight.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Reds are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Reds by a score of 8-3. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Reds and struck out 11 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -155 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Aaron Civale for the Brewers and Carson Spiers for the Reds. Civale went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Spiers was tagged for two homers and eight runs in five innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two homers came from Willy Adames and Brice Turang. Adames, Turang, and Spencer Steer each had three RBIs for the Brewers’ offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 56-60 overall and 5th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 10.5 games. So far, they have gone just 14-16 in divisional games. The Reds are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they lost the final game of their series vs. the Pirates and dropped the series opener vs. the Brewers.
At home, the Reds are 28-31 this season compared to 28-29 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati is 26-34 this season and 17-24 as the road underdog. They have struggled as the underdog overall, coming in with a mark of 14-19-3. When favored, the Reds are 30-26 this season.
The Reds have been a good bet on the run line this season, going 61-55 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 35-22. Their average run margin on the road is +0.8, compared to -0.1 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 36-24 on the run line. In games they have won, they have an average run margin of +3.8, while in games they have lost, their average run margin is -2.9.
The Reds are on the road today against the Brewers, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Cincinnati’s games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 54-58. Their games have had an average line of 9 runs this season, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 5-9. Overall, 68.1% of their games have had lines set higher than 8 runs, and they are currently on a 7-game over streak.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made six starts and 32 appearances this season, coming in with a record of 6-5 and an ERA of 3.43. Martinez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. In his last outing, he went five innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. Before that, he had won three straight games out of the bullpen. Opponents are batting .243 off Martinez this season. Per nine innings, he has 7.29 strikeouts and just 1.07 walks.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 13/43 in his last 10 games, including two home runs. For the season, he is batting .267 with 20 homers and 50 RBIs. Spencer Steer is the team’s current leader in RBIs, with 68, but he is hitting just .232 for the season. Steer has also gone deep 16 times.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. They have been a bit below average in terms of batting average and on-base percentage. Currently, Jeimer Candelario is on a seven-game hitting streak, and Tyler Stephenson has homered in three straight games.
Milwaukee is hosting the Reds today with an overall record of 66-49, which has them leading the NL Central by 7.0 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have put together four straight wins, and they are 24-13 against other teams in the NL Central.
The Brewers have been good at home this year, going 32-21, and they have gone 34-28 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 37-27, and they are 29-22 as the underdog. Milwaukee has really been struggling at home in series lately, as they have dropped four straight series at home. This season, their series record is 19-14-3.
When the Brewers are favored, they are just 26-38 on the run line, but when they are underdogs, they are 35-16. Their average run margin is +0.9 runs per game, and they are 61-54 on the run line overall. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7 runs per game, while it is -2.8 runs per game in losses.
The Brewers have been a high-scoring team this season, with a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 64-46 on the season, and they have gone over the total in four straight games. The over/under line for today’s game against the Reds is set at 8 runs, which is right in line with their average line for the season.
Tobias Myers will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that outing, which came on August 4th, he took the loss, going 5 innings and giving up 1 earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Myers has made 16 starts, has a record of 6-5, and his ERA is 3.02. Opponents are batting .225 vs. Myers this season, and his WHIP is currently 1.14. Myers has turned in five quality starts this year and is averaging 7.82 strikeouts per nine innings.
As a team, the Brewers are batting .258, which is the 4th best mark in the league. They are also one of the best teams in terms of on-base percentage and have the best team OBP in the league. Milwaukee is also near the top of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS. Overall, they are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league.
Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Adames leading the team with 21 homers and Hoskins right behind him with 19. Adames’ 79 RBIs is also the best mark on the team. Adames has gone deep four times in his last six games, while Jackson Chourio has also homered twice in this stretch, batting .429.
Our predicted final score for this Reds vs. Brewers matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Brewers. With the Brewers’ money line sitting at -136, we see this as a great value pick and are recommending you take the Brewers to win outright.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Tobias Myers is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Nick Martinez at five. However, Martinez is projected to finish with a better ERA, and we have him finishing with a line of 5 hits and three earned runs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Bryan Hudson | Out | Oblique |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Trevor Megill | Out | Back |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Jake Fraley | Questionable | Ankle |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
