Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Reds and Brewers are set to face off in an NL Central matchup at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Reds are 34-36, while the Brewers are 41-29.
Milwaukee is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134 compared to the Reds at +114. Sunday’s over/under line is at 9 runs, and the starting pitching matchup features Frankie Montas for the Reds and Colin Rea for the Brewers.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati Reds odds
Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Reds have recorded a 4-1 record, with a 4-1 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Brewers have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a record of 9-1 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Reds by a score of 3-1. The Brewers offense only had four hits in the game but still picked up a win thanks to a strong outing from Jared Koenig, who went just two-thirds of an inning but didn’t give up a hit or an earned run. He got some help from Trevor Megill, who closed things out.
Cincinnati’s only run came in the 9th inning, as Andrew Abbott gave up three earned runs in five innings of work. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued three walks.
Joey Ortiz, Christian Yelich, and Jeimer Candelario each had two hits for the Brewers. Ortiz and Yelich each homered in the game.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 34-36 overall and trails the Brewers by seven games in the NL Central. The Reds are 8-7 against other teams in the NL Central this year. They have won seven of their last ten games and are currently on a two-game road winning streak in series.
The Reds are 16-23 as the underdog this year compared to an 18-13 mark as the favorite. At home, the Reds are 18-19 this year. On the road, they have gone 16-17.
When betting on the Reds to cover the run line, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road. They are 22-11 against the run line on the road this season, compared to 15-22 at home. Their average run differential is +0.2 runs per game, and they are 37-33 against the run line overall. When they win, they win big, with an average run differential of +3.6 runs per game.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers today. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Reds’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 31-36. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 1-12-2. So far this season, 21 of their games have had over/under lines set above 9 runs, accounting for 30.0% of their games.
Cincinnati is sending Frankie Montas to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 4.55. Montas has made 12 starts this year and has a total of four quality starts. In his last outing, he got roughed up by the Cubs, giving up four earned runs in 1 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had pitched well, going seven innings without giving up a run vs. the Rockies. Montas has been much better on the road this year, coming in with an ERA of 7.44 compared to 6.34 at home.
Jeimer Candelario has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 10/29 with four homers over his last seven games. This has helped him move into the team lead with 12 homers, which is 10th in the league. Candelario is also 2nd on the team with 34 RBIs. Spencer Steer has also been a consistent run producer for the Reds, as his 41 RBIs are 13th in the MLB.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road (4.7 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). Overall, they are batting just .226, which is 18th in the league. The Reds are also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central with a record of 41-29, which has them 6.5 games ahead of the Cardinals. The Brewers are 17-9 against other teams in the division. The Brewers have been solid at home this year, going 21-12, and they are just above .500 at 20-17 on the road.
As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 22-13 this year, and they are 19-16 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 13-7-2, and they have won two straight series. So far, they are 1-1 in their series vs. the Reds.
When betting the run line on the Brewers, it’s important to note that they have been a better play on the run line as the underdog this season, going 23-12 compared to 13-22 as the favorite. Their overall run line record is 36-34, and their average run margin for the season is +0.9 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers are playing at home against the Cincinnati Reds today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 38-30. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 9 runs is 2-3-1. So far this season, only 5.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three hits, three walks, and one homer. Rea finished with the win in that start. Looking back further, he has made 11 starts and four of them have been quality starts. Rea’s ERA for the season is 3.31, along with a record of 5-2. Overall, he has pitched much better at home, coming in with a 2.75 ERA compared to 3.98 on the road.
Christian Yelich has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers of late, going 8/20 in his last five games. This has pushed his season average up to .262. Yelich has also scored two runs in his last five games. Willy Adames has also been swinging the bat well, going 4/16 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs.
William Contreras and Willy Adames come into the game as the Brewers’ top two home run hitters, with Contreras batting .302 with nine homers and Adames at .243 with 11 homers. Both players also have 48 RBIs, which is good for 7th in the league. Rhys Hoskins is 2nd on the team in homers but is batting just .222 for the season.
Getting the Brewers at -134 on the money line is a great value, as we have them winning this game 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay option, you could also look to pair the Brewers with an over pick, as the line is sitting at 9 runs and we have this game going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Frankie Montas finishing with six strikeouts compared to Colin Rea with six as well. However, Montas is projected to finish with a better ERA than Rea, and we have him finishing with a line of 6 IP, 4 ER, compared to Rea at 6 IP, 3 ER.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
