Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Betting Tips 6/15/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview

First pitch for Saturday’s Reds vs. Brewers matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Reds have won two straight and are 34-35, while the Brewers are 40-29 and have Bryse Wilson on the mound.

Milwaukee is the betting favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -130 compared to the Reds at +111. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and BSWI is carrying this game on TV.

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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Reds are 5-0. This includes going 5-0 vs. the runline.
• In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 8-2, while going 5-5 against the runline.
• Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 7-3 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.

Cincinnati picked up a 6-5 road win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a three-run 5th inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 9th. As for the Brewers, they scored one run in the 1st and tied the game with two runs in the 9th.

Hunter Greene started for the Reds and picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Brewers, Freddy Peralta got the start and took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

TJ Friedl was the difference for the Reds, as he homered, scored twice, and drove in two runs. Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, and Jake Fraley each had two hits and an RBI for Cincinnati’s offense.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Cincinnati is 34-35 overall and trails the Brewers by six games in the NL Central. The Reds have won two straight games and are 8-2 over their last 10. This season, they are 8-6 in divisional matchups.

At home, the Reds are 18-19 this season and have gone 16-16 on the road. As the underdog, Cincinnati is 16-22 this season and 18-13 when favored. Their overall series record is 8-12-2, and they have won two straight series on the road.

The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 37-32 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 22-10. They have covered the run line in five straight road games and have an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game away from home.

The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Reds have played 66 games this season, and their combined run average is exactly 8.5 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 31-35, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 5-6. So far this season, 50.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs.

Left-hander Andrew Abbott gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Abbott’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, he went five innings and gave up one earned run, picking up the win in the process. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Abbott has allowed a total of 12 home runs this season. Looking at his walk numbers, he is averaging 2.68 per nine innings compared to 6.93 strikeouts.

Heading into today’s game, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. However, they have been better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .227, and their team on-base percentage of .308 is also below the league average. One positive for the Reds is that they are 8th in the league in walks.

Jeimer Candelario has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/21 in his last five games, with four homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .247 with 12 homers and 33 RBIs. Spencer Steer has also been a nice surprise for the Reds, as he is 14th in the league with 41 RBIs.

Milwaukee is currently 40-29 overall this season, putting them in 1st place in the NL Central. They hold a 5.5 game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. The Brewers are looking to bounce back today, as they dropped the first game of the series vs. the Reds.

So far, the Brewers have been good both at home and on the road, as they are 20-12 at home and 20-17 on the road. Milwaukee’s series record is 13-7-2 this year, and they have won two straight series. As the home favorite, the Brewers have gone 15-7 this year, and they are 21-13 overall as the favorite. Their record as the underdog is 19-16. Currently, they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.

When betting the run line, the Brewers have been a better bet on the road this season, going 21-16. Their overall run line record is 35-34, and their average run margin is +0.9 runs per game. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 23-12 on the run line, compared to 12-22 as the favorite. Their average run margin in wins is +3.6 runs per game, while their average run margin in losses is -2.9 runs per game.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 38-29, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 18-13. Today’s over/under line is 8.5 runs, and 13.0% of their games this season have had higher lines. Their games have gone over the line in 42.0% of the games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs.

Milwaukee is sending Bryse Wilson to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Tigers. In that start, he gave up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Wilson took the loss in that outing. Overall, he has made eight starts and 16 appearances this season, going 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA. Wilson’s WHIP for the season is 1.28, and opponents are batting .231 vs. the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.83 strikeouts and 3.41 walks.

Over the past nine games, Christian Yelich has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 13/33 (.394) with two runs scored and three RBIs. Yelich is also on a three-game hitting streak. William Contreras comes into the game with an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .307 for the season with nine homers and 48 RBIs.

As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, their team batting average of .255 is 4th in the MLB, and they have the league’s best BABIP at .31.

Getting the Brewers at -130 on the money line is a great value pick, as we have them winning this one at home by a score of 6-5. With the payout for a Brewers win on the money line, we would recommend sticking with that, as opposed to the over/under line, as we have the game finishing with 11 total runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Bryse Wilson is projected to finish with five strikeouts. As for Andrew Abbott, he is projected to finish with six K’s. However, Abbott is still 18th among starters in terms of picking up a win, while Wilson is 12th.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips

• Take the Brewers on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds Injury Report