Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Preview
The White Sox and Brewers face off in an interleague matchup at 2:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -316 compared to the White Sox at +255. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Chicago will be looking to pull off the upset with Nick Nastrini on the mound, while the Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta. Milwaukee comes into the game on a four-game winning streak and is 10-1 in their last 11 games. They are 35-23 overall and are first in the NL Central. The White Sox are 15-44 and are 5th in the AL Central. NBCS is carrying this one on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago White Sox odds
Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the White Sox are 1-4. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Brewers have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the White Sox have a straight-up record of 0-10 and a 1-9 record vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Brewers vs White Sox series. Milwaukee went into the matchup as -171 favorites and squeaked out a 4-3 win. The Brewers had a chance to win by more but went into the 7th inning with just a 2-1 lead. As for the White Sox, they scored two runs in the 7th and could only muster one more run in the 10th.
Robert Gasser got the start for the Brewers, going just five innings while giving up three runs and striking out three. Hoby Milner got the win out of the bullpen. Garrett Crochet put together a good outing for the White Sox, giving up just one run in six innings of work.
Offensively, the Brewers were led by Willy Adames, who went 2/5 with three RBIs. Adames’ two-run single in the 7th proved to be the game-winning hit. As for the White Sox, Gavin Sheets hit the game’s only home run and went 1/4.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction
Chicago is on the road today, looking to snap a ten-game losing streak, and they are 15-44 overall, putting them 24.5 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. So far, they have really struggled against other AL Central teams, going 5-19 this year.
At home, the White Sox are just 10-21 and have gone 5-23 on the road. This season, they are only 2-0 as the favorite, compared to 13-44 as the underdog. Chicago has really struggled in day games, going 5-21 this year. The White Sox’ overall series record is 4-13-1, and they have dropped four straight series.
Despite a run line record of 24-35, the White Sox have been a good bet when favored, going 2-0. They have been a poor bet when the underdog, going 22-35. Their average run margin is -2.3, but they have been outscored by 2.9 runs per game on the road, where they are 9-19 vs. the run line.
The White Sox are on the road against the Brewers today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in White Sox games this season is also 8.0 runs per game. Overall, the White Sox have an over/under record of 26-30 this season, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, the White Sox have an over/under record of 8-4-1. So far this season, 37.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, while 40.7% have had lines set lower than 8 runs.
Nick Nastrini is on the mound for the White Sox today, as they are on the road to take on the Brewers. Nastrini has taken the loss in all 3 of his starts this season, but he has been able to rack up 17 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings of work. His last start was a 5-inning outing at home vs. the Blue Jays, where he gave up 3 earned runs.
Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are dead last in home runs and have the league’s worst team batting average at just .215. Overall, they are scoring only 2.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. The White Sox have been even worse on the road, averaging just 2.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Paul DeJong has been the White Sox’s most consistent power threat this season, as his eight homers lead the team and is 13th in the league. However, he is batting just .228 for the season and has gone only 5/31 in his last nine games. Gavin Sheets and Eloy Jimenez are also tied for 2nd on the team with five homers, but Sheets has gone just 6/30 in his last nine games, and Jimenez is hitting only .231 for the season.
Milwaukee is hosting the White Sox today with an overall record of 35-23, good for 1st place in the NL Central. The Brewers lead the Cubs by 6.5 games for the division lead. Milwaukee has won four straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games overall.
The Brewers have been good at home this year, going 17-10, and they have gone 18-13 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 17-12, and they are 18-11 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 10-6-2, and they have won two straight series.
So far this season, the Brewers have been a solid bet on the run line, going 31-27 overall. They’ve been especially good on the road, where they are 19-12 on the run line. They’ve been a good bet as the underdog, going 21-8 on the run line. Their average run differential is +1.0 runs per game.
When the Milwaukee Brewers play at home, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Brewers have a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 33-24. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 3-4. Overall, 58.6% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers today and comes into the game with a record of 3-3 and ERA of 3.61. So far, he has made 11 starts and five of them have been quality starts. Peralta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Peralta was excellent in that outing, finishing with 11 strikeouts. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. The right-hander has given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
As a team, the Brewers are 2nd in the league in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s top on-base percentage team and have the best team batting average in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has also been good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 22nd in the league in strikeouts per game.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Contreras leading the team with 44 RBIs and Adames and Rhys Hoskins each having nine homers. Adames has been especially hot of late, going 11/31 in his last eight games with two homers and 10 RBIs. Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are both riding hitting streaks for the Brewers.
Our predicted final score for this White Sox and Brewers matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers. However, with the Brewers being such heavy favorites, we recommend taking the over, as there is a lot of value in the line sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for third among all starters. As for Nick Nastrini, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is 19th.
Offensively, we have the Brewers finishing with nine hits and the White Sox with eight. However, the White Sox are projected to finish with just four runs, which is the lowest of any team in action today.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the White Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Trevor Megill | Probable | Arm |
Chicago White Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Max Stassi | Out | Hip |
| Dominic Leone | Out | Elbow |
| Mike Clevinger | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Benintendi | Out | Achilles |
| Eloy Jiménez | Out | Hamstring |
| Yoán Moncada | Out | Groin |
| Luis Robert Jr. | Out | Hip |
| Matt Foster | Out | Elbow |
| Jimmy Lambert | Out | Shoulder |
| Jesse Scholtens | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Vaughn | Doubtful | Finger |
| Steven Wilson | Out | Back |
| Shane Drohan | Out | Shoulder |
