Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
At 2:10 PM ET, the Cubs and Brewers face off in an NL Central matchup. Sunday’s matchup is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the heavy favorite on the money line (-178). The Cubs are +150 on the money line, and their record is 39-45, which has them 5th in the NL Central.
Chicago will be sending Kyle Hendricks to the mound, while the Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and this game will be televised on MARQ.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Brewers have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- The Cubs have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Chicago picked up a 5-3 road win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a two-run lead after the first inning and never trailed in the game. As for the Brewers, they scored two runs in the 3rd and added their final run in the 4th.
Justin Steele started for the Cubs and went six innings, giving up three runs and striking out five. He picked up a win in the game, while Hector Neris closed things out. Tobias Myers only went six innings for the Brewers, giving up three earned runs on seven hits.
At the plate, the Cubs were led by Michael Busch and Ian Happ, as they were the only two Cubs hitters to have more than one hit. Busch, Happ, and Rhys Hoskins each homered for Chicago. For the Brewers, Brice Turang went 2/5 with an RBI.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
With a record of 39-45, the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central, 10.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 10-18 in divisional games. The Cubs are on the road today, and they are 17-27 on the road this season.
Chicago has dropped two straight series and has an overall series record of 9-14-2 this year. As the road underdog, the Cubs are 11-21 this season, and they are an even 20-20 as the favorite. Coming into today’s game, the Cubs are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When betting on the Cubs’ run line this season, it’s been better to take them on the road, where they are 25-19 against the run line compared to 15-25 at home. They have an average run differential of -0.8 away from Wrigley Field, which is slightly worse than their overall average run differential of -0.3.
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the total 35 times and under 45 times this season. The average over/under line for Cubs games this season is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8, the over has hit just 3 times, with 11 unders and 1 push. In games with an over/under line set at 8 runs, the Cubs have averaged 8.5 runs per game.
Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Brewers on the road. So far this season, he has made nine starts and has a record of 1-5 with a 6.87 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Hendricks has a WHIP of 1.49 and has only turned in one quality start this year. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had picked up the win and didn’t give up a run in 5 2/3 innings. Hendricks has made two straight starts, coming out of the bullpen for the two outings before that.
Chicago’s offense comes into today’s game averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. So far, the Cubs have the 15th most home runs in the league but are batting just .230 as a team, which is 18th in the MLB.
Over his last 10 games, Ian Happ has gone 7/33 with three homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into the 2nd spot on the team’s home run leaderboard, as he has 11 homers for the season. Nico Hoerner has also been swinging a hot bat, going 12/40 in his last 10 games and is currently on a seven-game hitting streak.
Milwaukee is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 49-34, which has them leading the NL Central. The Brewers hold a 6.5-game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. So far, they have gone 19-10 against other NL Central teams.
The Brewers have been really good at home this year, coming in with a record of 26-13, which is just above .500 at 23-21 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee is 28-16 this year, and they are 21-18 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Brewers are 15-8-2 this year.
The Brewers have been a solid run line team this season, going 44-39 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 25-19 against the run line. They have also been a good bet as an underdog, going 26-13 against the run line in those games. Their average run differential is +0.8 runs per game, and they have been particularly good at covering the run line in games they win, with an average run differential of +3.3 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers have played to the over in 44 of their 79 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone 6-6-1. In 59% of their games, the over/under line has been set at more than 8 runs.
Freddy Peralta is starting for the Brewers today vs. the Cubs and comes into the game with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.03. So far this year, he has made 16 starts, and opponents are batting .211 off the right-hander. Peralta has made six quality starts this year and is averaging 11.59 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Peralta finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Peralta’s ERA at home is 4.76 compared to 4.05 on the road.
William Contreras has been one of the Brewers’ top hitters this season, batting .291 with nine home runs, which is 3rd on the team. His 50 RBIs are also the 2nd most on the team and 13th in the league. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are the team’s leaders in home runs, but Adames is batting just .232, and Hoskins is only hitting .228. However, both have been swinging the bat well of late.
Over the team’s last nine games, Brice Turang has gone 14/40 (.350) with one homer and eight RBIs, while Jackson Chourio is also on a hot streak, going 10/27 with two homers and six RBIs. Chourio is also on a six-game hitting streak.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers, and with the money line sitting at -178, there is some value in taking the Brewers straight up. However, our favorite bet for this game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Kyle Hendricks with four. As for a potential payout for Peralta and Hendricks to pick up a win, Peralta is the second-best option, and Hendricks is right in the middle of the pack.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Ortiz | Probable | Neck |
| Jared Koenig | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Mike Tauchman | Out | Groin |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Javier Assad | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
