Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
The Cubs and Brewers are set to face off in an NL Central matchup at 4:10 PM ET on Saturday. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 38-45, while the Brewers are 1st at 49-33.
Justin Steele is starting for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Tobias Myers. Milwaukee is currently on a five-game winning streak, and they are the slight money line favorite for today’s game at -112. The money line odds have the Cubs at -106, and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Cubs are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Cubs have a record of 3-7, while as the underdog, they have a record of 3-7.
- The Brewers hold a 6-4 record as the favorite and a 4-6 record as the underdog.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Cubs vs Brewers series. Milwaukee went into the matchup as the slight favorites at -133 and squeaked out a 4-2 win. Chicago had a chance to tie the game in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.
Colin Rea got the win for the Brewers, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued two walks. Jameson Taillon had a rough outing for the Cubs, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits.
At the plate, Jackson Chourio was the difference for the Brewers, as he went 2/3 with a home run and four RBIs. Seiya Suzuki also had a two-hit game for Milwaukee. Chicago’s top hitter was Kris Bryant, who went 2/4.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
With a record of 38-45, the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central, 11.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. Overall, they are 9-18 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cubs are looking to close the 0.5-game gap between them and the Reds for 4th place in the division.
Chicago has struggled on the road this year, going 16-27 compared to 22-18 at home. As the road favorite, the Cubs are 6-6 this year and have an even record of 20-20 as the favorite overall. The Cubs have dropped two straight series and have an overall series record of 9-14-2 this year.
When it comes to run line betting, the Cubs are a team that bettors should look to back when they are on the road. They are 24-19 against the run line on the road this season, compared to just 15-25 at home. They have an average run margin of -0.9 on the road, but that number jumps to 0.3 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 28-15 against the run line in those games.
Chicago Cubs games have had an average combined run total of 8.5 this season, and their over/under record is 35-45. When the over/under line is set at 8.5, the Cubs have a record of 9-8. Overall, 27.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 or higher.
Left-hander Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 3.08. Steele’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. In his 11 starts, he has turned in five quality starts. Steele’s most recent outing came vs. the Giants, where he went 7 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. He has not taken a loss in his last three outings.
Christopher Morel has struggled at the plate this season for the Cubs, batting just .199. However, he does lead the team with 15 home runs and 45 RBIs. Morel has also gone deep twice in his last seven games, but he is just 5/24 in that stretch. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are both tied for 2nd on the team with 10 homers, with Suzuki batting .266 and Happ at just .229.
Over his last seven games, Nico Hoerner has gone 9/27 for the Cubs, and Seiya Suzuki has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 8/29 with two homers in this stretch. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .229 and are 21st in the league in scoring at 4.1 runs per game.
Milwaukee is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 49-33, which has them leading the NL Central by 6.5 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have won five straight games, and they are 19-9 against other teams in the NL Central this year.
At home, the Brewers are 26-12 this year and have gone 23-21 on the road. As the home underdog, the Brewers have a record of 6-5 this year, and they have won six straight at home overall. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 15-8-2, and they are coming off a series win over the Rockies.
When the Brewers win, they win big, averaging a run margin of 3.3 runs per game. That has led to a run line record of 44-38, including a 4-0 run in their last four games. They are 26-13 against the run line as an underdog, compared to 18-25 as a favorite. Their average run margin at home is 1.0, and they are 19-19 against the run line at home.
The Milwaukee Brewers have an over/under record of 44-35 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over that total 21 times and under 15 times. Overall, 15.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, with the average line for their games being set at 8 runs.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA. Myers has pitched well at home, coming in with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 5.33. Looking at his road numbers, Myers is 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA. In his most recent outing, he went five innings and gave up one earned run vs. the Padres. Myers picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had won three straight starts.
Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio have been swinging the bat well for the Brewers of late, with Turang going 12/39 in his last nine games and Chourio hitting .370 over the same stretch. Chourio also has two homers during this stretch, while Turang has one. Chourio is currently on a five-game hitting streak.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been two of the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Contreras hitting nine homers and Adames going deep 13 times. Adames’ 54 RBIs are 9th in the league, while Contreras’ 49 RBIs are 14th. Adames is batting just .235 for the season, while Rhys Hoskins is at .223.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Brewers game is to take the Brewers on the money line, with the payout sitting at -112. We have the Brewers winning this one by a score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Justin Steele finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters today. As for Tobias Myers, he is projected to finish with five K’s, putting him in the middle of the pack.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Brewers are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Ortiz | Questionable | Neck |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Mike Tauchman | Out | Groin |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Javier Assad | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
