Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
At 1:10 PM ET, the Cubs and Brewers face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -121. The money line odds for a Cubs win are at +101, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Jameson Taillon will be on the mound for the Cubs, while the Brewers are set to start Colin Rea. The Cubs are 28-28 this season, while the Brewers are leading the NL Central with a record of 32-23.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- In the Brewers’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 4-6, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cubs by a score of 10-6. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Cubs and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +126 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Bryse Wilson for the Brewers and Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Wilson only went four innings but gave up just three hits and one earned run. On the other side, Imanaga was tagged for seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s top three hitters, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Blake Perkins, combined for six hits, two homers, and seven RBIs. Yelich and Joey Ortiz each scored three times for the Brewers’ offense.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is at .500 overall with a record of 28-28, and they are 4.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. So far, they are just 6-9 in divisional games. The Cubs have dropped four straight series and are just 7-8-2 in series this year.
At home, the Cubs have gone 15-11 this year, and they are 13-17 on the road. As the underdog, Chicago is 16-17 this year, and they are 12-11 when favored.
Chicago has been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 29-27 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 18-12 against the run line. The Cubs have been a profitable underdog bet, going 23-10 against the run line in those games. Their average run margin is -0.1 runs per game, but that number jumps to -0.8 on the road. In their wins, they have an average run margin of 3.1 runs per game, while that number drops to -3.4 in their losses.
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the total in 24 of their 54 games this season, including 7 of 11 when the O/U line was set at 8.5. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs. Today’s O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, and the Cubs have hit the over in their last two games.
Jameson Taillon has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 2.58. His WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. The right-hander most recently faced the Cardinals, where he finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and he issued one walk. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Taillon has given up at least two homers in three of his last four starts. So far, he has made two quality starts. Per nine innings, he has 5.87 strikeouts and 2.58 walks.
Heading into today’s game, the Cubs are batting just .227 as a team, which is the 20th best mark in the league. This has led to them averaging only 4.3 runs per game, which is also 16th in the MLB. The Cubs have struggled to generate power this season, as they are just 13th in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of .364.
Christopher Morel and Michael Busch have been the Cubs’ top power threats this season, with Morel leading the team with nine homers and Busch right behind him with eight. Morel’s 34 RBIs are also the best mark on the team, while Busch is 3rd at 23. Busch has gone just 4/19 in his last nine games, but he does come into the game on a four-game hitting streak.
Milwaukee is 32-23 overall and leads the NL Central by 4.5 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have gone 15-8 against other teams in the division. So far, they have taken two of three from the Cubs in this series. At home, the Brewers are 14-10 this year.
As for the Cubs, they are 4.5 games back in the NL Central with a record of 27-27. Chicago has dropped two of the first three games of this series. They are 14-10 at home this year.
The Brewers have been a solid run line bet this season, going 29-26 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 19-12. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 21-8 on the run line. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.7, while it is -2.9 in losses.
The Milwaukee Brewers are at home today against the Chicago Cubs with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Brewers games this season is 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 31-24. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit at a 16-10 clip. The over has hit in two straight games for Milwaukee.
Right-hander Colin Rea is getting the start for the Brewers today as he faces off against the Cubs. He has made 10 appearances this year and has a record of 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA. Rea has made nine starts and has a WHIP of 1.36. So far, he has turned in three quality starts and is averaging 6.13 strikeouts per nine innings. Rea most recently pitched on May 25th, where he picked up the win out of the bullpen. In that outing, he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs. Before that, he had lost two straight starts.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Contreras batting .323 with eight homers and Adames at .255 with nine home runs. Adames has also been hot of late, going 7/19 in his last five games with two homers and seven RBIs. Adames is also on an eight-game hitting streak coming into today’s game. Rhys Hoskins is also tied with Adames for the team lead in homers, but he is batting just .233 this season.
Overall, the Brewers have been one of the league’s best offenses this season, averaging 5 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They also have the 6th best home run total in the league and are near the top of the league in team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. As a team, they are batting .252.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Brewers game is that the Brewers will come out on top by a final score of 6-5. With the money line payout for a Brewers win sitting at -121, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitching, our projections have Colin Rea finishing with six strikeouts, which is good enough for seventh among today’s starters. As for Jameson Taillon, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is fifth worst.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Trevor Megill | Questionable | Arm |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
