Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
At 7:40 PM from American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have an NL Central matchup between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers are 31-22 overall and they are currently on a five-game winning streak, while the Cubs are 27-27 and are 2nd in the NL Central.
Milwaukee is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -156, while the Cubs are the slight underdog at +132. Tuesday’s over/under line is sitting at 8 runs, and the game can be seen on MARQ.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs odds
Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Cubs in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Brewers, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 4-6 against the runline.
- The Cubs have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Cubs by a score of 5-1. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Cubs and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -106 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Robert Gasser for the Brewers and Justin Steele for the Cubs. Gasser only went six innings but didn’t give up a hit or a run and finished with seven strikeouts. On the other side, Steele also had a good outing, going seven innings and striking out eight.
Milwaukee’s two biggest innings came in the 1st and 8th, as they scored five of their five runs in those two frames. The Cubs got on the board with one run in the 9th, but it was too little too late.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
After dropping the first game of the series vs. the Brewers, the Cubs are 27-27 overall, putting them 4.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cubs have lost five straight games overall and are just 2-8 across their last 10 games.
Chicago has an overall series record of 7-8-2 this year, and they have dropped four straight series. As the road underdog, the Cubs are 8-13 this year, and they are just 12-10 as the favorite. At home, the Cubs have gone 15-11.
When it comes to the run line, the Cubs have been a solid bet on the road this season, going 17-11 against the run line. They have been especially good as the underdog, going 22-10 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.1, while it is -3.4 in losing games.
Chicago Cubs games have had an average combined run total of 8.6 this season, but their over/under record is just 22-30. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Cubs are just 2-8 on the season. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, but 44.4% of their games have had higher lines than that. Their games have gone under in two straight contests.
Right-hander Ben Brown is getting the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 12 appearances this season and has a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 3.20. Brown’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. Out of his five starts, he has one quality start and is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Brown’s last outing came on May 23rd, where he went four innings, giving up no earned runs, six hits, and one walk. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.
Chicago’s offense has been a below-average unit this season, coming into the game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of batting average and slugging percentage. The Cubs have been good at drawing walks this season and have a team on-base percentage of .308.
Christopher Morel has been the Cubs’ top power threat this season, as his nine homers are 1st on the team and 9th in the league. However, he is batting just .198. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers apiece. Bellinger is also 2nd on the team with 23 RBIs.
Milwaukee is currently 31-22 overall and leads the NL Central by 4.5 games over the Cubs. The Brewers took the series opener vs. the Cubs, and their record vs. other NL Central teams is 14-7 this year.
At home, the Brewers are 13-9 this year and have gone 18-13 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 14-11 this year and 17-11 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 9-6-2, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
When looking at the run line, the Brewers have been a better bet on the road than at home, as their 19-12 mark on the run line away from Milwaukee is better than their 9-13 mark at home. They have covered the run line in two straight games at home and have been a better bet as the underdog than as the favorite.
When the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs today, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Brewers’ games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 29-24. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 2-4. So far this season, 62.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and they are currently on a five-game under streak.
Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Marlins, where he took the loss and gave up one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing, he gave up four hits, issued one walk, and served up one homer. Peralta has lost each of his last three starts and has given up at least one homer in each of those outings. The right-hander’s record for the season is 3-3, and his ERA is 3.81. Opponents are batting .204 off Peralta this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 11.28 strikeouts and 2.86 walks.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been swinging the bat well for the Brewers of late, with Contreras going 8/25 in his last six games and Adames going 9/24. Both players also have one home run during this stretch. For the season, Contreras is batting .330 with a team-high 43 RBIs, while Adames is 2nd on the team with 35 RBIs and is batting .249.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top power-hitting clubs, as they are 5th in homers and have a collective batting average of .254.
Our pick for today’s Cubs vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Brewers on the money line at -156. We have the Brewers winning this one by a final score of 6-5. With the payout for a Brewers win being -156, we see this as a good value compared to the Cubs’ money line at +132.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with nine strikeouts, and he has the highest strikeout projection among all starters today. As for the Cubs’ starter, Ben Brown is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him ranked 20th among starters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
