Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
From American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have the Cubs and Brewers facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 4:10 PM ET, and MARQ is carrying the Cubs on TV.
The money line odds have the Cubs at +103 compared to the Brewers at -122, and the over/under line is currently at 8 runs. Chicago is 27-26, while the Brewers are 30-22 and they are currently on a four-game winning streak. Robert Gasser is starting for the Brewers, and the Cubs are going with Justin Steele.
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Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Cubs are 1-4. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Brewers have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 4-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Cardinals scored two runs in the bottom of the 7th. Chicago was the +123 underdog on the money line going into the game.
Offensively, the Cubs only had three fewer hits than the Cardinals but scored just three runs. All of their runs came on two home runs, a two-run shot by Ian Happ in the 3rd inning and a solo homer by Happ in the 7th. The Cubs also wasted a big game from Happ, who went 2/3 with three RBIs.
Chicago is on the road today to take on the Brewers, and they are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes dropping the final two games of their series vs. the Cardinals. Currently, the Cubs are 27-26 overall, putting them 3.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
As the road team, the Cubs are 4-2 when favored this season and 12-15 overall on the road. At home, the Cubs have gone 15-11 this season. Chicago’s overall series record is 7-8-2, and they have dropped four straight series.
The Cubs have been a profitable run line team on the road this season, going 17-10. They are currently on a three-game run line win streak on the road and have covered the run line in 22 of their 32 games as the underdog.
Chicago Cubs games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 22-29. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 8 runs, the over/under record is just 2-7. Overall, 45.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, while 37.7% have had lines set at under 8 runs.
Justin Steele is getting the start for the Cubs on the road against the Brewers. He has started 4 games this season and has yet to pick up a win. In his last start, he took a loss to the Braves, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Steele has 18 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings of work.
Christopher Morel and Michael Busch have been the Cubs’ top power threats this season, with Morel’s nine homers leading the team and Busch coming in with seven homers. However, Morel is batting just .202, and Busch has struggled of late, going just 1/14 in his last seven games. Cody Bellinger has also been a solid power threat, as his seven homers are 2nd on the team, and he comes into the game with a season-long batting average of .247.
As a team, the Cubs are 17th in the MLB in scoring at 4.3 runs per game. They have been about the same offensively at home and on the road. Overall, they are batting a collective .228, which is 16th in the league, and are 21st in the league in slugging percentage.
The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Red Sox with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Red Sox scored a run in the bottom of the 8th. Milwaukee was the +122 underdog on the road going into this matchup.
Tobias Myers got the start for the Brewers and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up just one run on six hits. The Brewers’s offense scored their only run in the 5th inning and wasted a good performance from Gary Sánchez, who went 2/4 with a double.
Milwaukee is currently 30-22 overall and leads the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Cubs. The Brewers will host the Cubs today with an overall division record of 13-7. They have won two straight games, and this came after taking the final two games of their series vs. the Red Sox.
At home, the Brewers are 12-9 this season and have gone 18-13 on the road. So far, they have been good as the underdog, going 16-11, and they are 14-11 as the favorite. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 9-6-2 this year.
The Brewers have an average run differential of +0.9 runs per game this season, and they have covered the run line in 27 of their 52 games. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 19-12. They have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog, and they are 19-8 against the run line in those games this season.
When the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs today, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Brewers’ games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 29-23. So far this season, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for five of their games, with a record of 2-3 in those games. Overall, 63.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, and their games have gone under the total in each of their last four contests.
Robert Gasser will be making his third start of the season for the Brewers, and he has a 1-0 record so far. Gasser has been solid in his first two outings, picking up a win in his last start vs. the Pirates. In that game, he went 5 innings, allowing just 1 run and 6 strikeouts. He also went 6 innings in his first start of the season, but he gave up 5 runs on 10 hits.
William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers of late, going 7/21 in his last five games with a home run and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .332 with a team-high eight home runs and 43 RBIs, which is 4th in the league. Rhys Hoskins also has nine homers this season but is batting just .233.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in scoring at 5 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 6th ranked home run-hitting team and have the 4th best batting average in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Brewers on the money line, with the payout sitting at -122. We have the Brewers winning this one by a score of 5-4. As for the starting pitchers, our projections have Robert Gasser finishing with five strikeouts compared to Justin Steele with six.
Offensively, we have the Brewers finishing with nine hits compared to the Cubs with eight. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to the over/under line, which is currently sitting at eight runs. However, we see this one finishing with a combined nine runs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- The Brewers should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
