Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
From American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have the Diamondbacks and Brewers facing off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 7:10 PM ET, and the Brewers are the slight money line favorite (-113). The Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West with a record of 86-68, and they are +105 on the money line today.
Arizona will be looking to keep their three-game winning streak alive with Merrill Kelly on the mound, while the Brewers are starting Aaron Civale. Civale and the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 88-66.
Check out BetCoco for Milwaukee Brewers – Arizona Diamondbacks odds
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- The Diamondbacks are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Brewers have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, the Diamondbacks have recorded a 6-4 record as the favorite, while they have a 3-7 record as the underdog.
- The Brewers are 6-4 (favorite) and 4-6 (underdog).
Arizona picked up a 7-4 road win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Diamondbacks had a huge 2nd inning, scoring seven of their nine runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their first run in the 5th and added their final three runs in the 6th.
Zac Gallen got the win for Arizona, going five innings and giving up four runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued three walks. A.J. Puk got the save. Colin Rea only went four innings for the Brewers, giving up three earned runs on five hits.
Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Geraldo Perdomo each had two hits and an RBI for the Diamondbacks. Eugenio Suarez also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Arizona is on a three-game winning streak, and they are 86-68 overall this season. In the NL West, they are six games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. So far, they have gone 26-20 in divisional games.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 42-33 this year, and they have gone 44-35 on the road. As the favorite, Arizona is 51-30 this year, and they are 35-38 as the underdog. The Diamondbacks have won three straight road games, and their overall series record is 26-19-4. Arizona has dropped two straight series.
Arizona is 80-74 vs. the run line this season, including a 46-33 mark on the road. The average run differential in their games is +0.6 runs per game. They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 45-28 as an underdog vs. the run line this season.
The Diamondbacks have played in 57 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 34-19. Their games have had an average of 10.4 runs scored per game, and their overall over/under record for the season is 88-59. The average over/under line for their games this season has been 9 runs.
Right-hander Merrill Kelly gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 4.00. Kelly has turned in five quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. Kelly has actually finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Opponents are batting .233 off Kelly this year, and his WHIP is 1.19.
Arizona’s offense has been the best in the league this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been the best team in the league in terms of on-base percentage and OPS, and they are also 2nd in team batting average and slugging percentage.
Over the team’s last nine games, Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been swinging the bat well, with Marte going 10/31 and Suarez going 12/36. Suarez is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, Suarez is batting .256 with 28 homers, and Marte is hitting .293 with 33 homers.
Milwaukee is 88-66 overall, putting them 1st in the NL Central. They hold a nine-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. The Brewers have gone 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers are looking to avoid dropping three straight games today, and they are 44-32 at home this year.
The Brewers have an overall series record of 28-17-4 this year, and they have won three straight series. This includes having won four straight series on the road. As for their overall record, the Brewers are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
The Brewers have been a good run line bet this season, going 78-76 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 43-35 against the run line. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 44-23 against the run line. The Brewers have been a bad bet as a favorite, going 34-53 against the run line.
The Milwaukee Brewers are playing host to the Arizona Diamondbacks today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. Both teams have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game, and the Brewers’ over/under record this season is 78-66. In games where the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Brewers have a record of 30-24. Overall, 30 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 19.5% of their games this season.
Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Diamondbacks at home. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA. Overall, Civale has pitched well at home, coming in with a 3.45 ERA compared to 6.61 on the road. Civale has turned in seven quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. He has won each of his last two starts.
Garrett Mitchell has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Brewers, as he has gone 8/29 over his last nine games with three homers and six RBIs. This has helped him put together a six-game hitting streak. Overall, Mitchell is batting .276 this season. Milwaukee’s top two home run hitters are Willy Adames and William Contreras, who have 32 and 23 homers, respectively.
As a team, the Brewers are 7th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the MLB.
Our predicted score for this Diamondbacks vs. Brewers matchup is a 6-5 win for the Brewers. With the money line sitting at -113, we see this as a great value pick.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Merrill Kelly going seven innings and Aaron Civale going five. We have Civale finishing with five strikeouts, and Kelly with four.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Bryse Wilson | Out | Oblique |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Sewald | Out | Neck |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Ryne Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
