Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Preview
Wednesday’s matchup between the Nationals and Marlins has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Nationals are the betting favorite on the money line (-141), while the Marlins are at +119. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nationals, while the Marlins are sending Valente Bellozo to the mound. In the NL East, the Nationals are in 4th place with a record of 62-76, while the Marlins are 5th at 51-87.
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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Nationals are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Marlins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- The Nationals have a 6-4 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 5-5 against the runline.
- Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have gone 2-8 vs. the runline and 4-6 straight-up.
Washington cruised to a 6-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 4th inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were the slight underdogs at -105.
Patrick Corbin got the win for the Nationals, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs. Max Meyer struggled on the mound for the Marlins, taking the loss after going 5 2/3 innings and giving up five earned runs.
Keibert Ruiz and Joey Gallo each homered for the Nationals, while Jacob Young scored three times and drove in a run while going 3/3. Connor Norby had a two-hit game for the Marlins.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington is 62-76 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL East, 20 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 19-20 in divisional matchups. The Nationals have won two straight games, and this came after dropping four in a row.
At home, the Nationals are 32-37 this season, and they are just under .500 at 30-39 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 50-65 this season and 12-11 when favored. The Nationals’ overall series record is 17-23-3, and they have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Washington has been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 78-60. They are 41-28 on the road against the run line and have covered in their last two games. They have been the underdog in most of those games, going 67-48 against the run line when not favored. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while it is -3.7 in losses.
The Washington Nationals are on the road against the Miami Marlins today, with the Over/Under line set at 8.5. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.9, and their Over/Under record is 66-67. When the O/U line is set at 8.5, their record is 18-20. Overall, 41.3% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8.5.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 8-11 with a 4.45 ERA. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.55, and opponents are batting .270 off him this year. In his last outing, Gore picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Gore has given up at least one homer in four straight outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 3.6 walks compared to 9.54 strikeouts.
For the season, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They are also 24th in the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of .245. Washington’s offense has been led by Luis Garcia Jr., who is batting .290 for the season and has a team-high 63 RBIs. CJ Abrams has a team-high 18 home runs but is batting just .242.
Over their last six games, Andrés Chaparro has gone just 4/20 (.200) with two home runs, and Dylan Crews is batting .259 with two homers. Ildemaro Vargas and Lane Thomas are both on three-game hitting streaks.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 31 games for the division lead. Overall, the Marlins are 51-87, putting them 20 games behind the Nationals for 4th place in the division. So far, they have gone just 13-27 in divisional games.
At home, the Marlins are 25-45 this season and 26-42 on the road. Miami has dropped four straight series at home, and their overall series record is 11-25-7. As the underdog, the Marlins are 47-73 this season and 4-14 when favored. Their overall record as the underdog is 47-73.
When betting the run line with the Marlins, it’s best to take them as the underdog. Miami is 62-58 against the run line when getting the runs, but just 2-16 when laying them. The Marlins’ average run differential in wins is +2.7, but they are getting outscored by -3.8 runs per game in losses. Miami is 29-41 against the run line at home and 35-33 on the road.
The Miami Marlins are home against the Washington Nationals today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played in 84 games this season, and the combined run average in those games is 8.9 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 75-59, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 25-21. So far this season, 26 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 18.8% of their games.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Nationals at home. He has made eight starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.32. Bellozo’s WHIP for the season is 1.34, and opponents are batting .253 off him this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had turned in a quality start and didn’t allow a run in seven innings of work. Per nine innings, Bellozo is averaging 6.91 strikeouts and 3.24 walks.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 14th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .296 is 21st in the MLB. Miami’s offense has been led by Jake Burger, who is hitting .247 with a team-high 25 homers and 59 RBIs.
Right fielder Jesús Sánchez comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is 2nd on the team with 17 homers. Derek Hill has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 4/14 in his last three games with three runs and two homers.
We see a lot of value in taking the Marlins on the money line at +119. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, giving us some room to take them on the money line or to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Valente Bellozo finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him as the 14th highest among starters. As for MacKenzie Gore, his six-strikeout projection has him at 20th. Offensively, the Marlins are projected to have 10 hits compared to the Nationals at nine.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Nationals on the moneyline
- The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jesús Sánchez | Questionable | Back |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Anthony Bender | Out | Undisclosed |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
| Declan Cronin | Questionable | Undisclosed |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
