Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Preview
From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Nationals and Marlins facing off in an NL East matchup. The Nationals are favored on the money line, with their line sitting at -105 compared to the Marlins at -113. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
First pitch for this one is at 6:40 PM ET, and BSFL will be televising this matchup. Washington is 61-76, while the Marlins are 51-86, and the Nats are 4th in the NL East, while the Marlins are on a two-game winning streak and are 5th in the division.
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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Nationals are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- In the Marlins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their previous ten games, Nationals have won 5-5 as favorites and 4-6 as underdogs.
- 4-6 is the record of the Marlins as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 5-5.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction
The Nationals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 14-1 loss. Washington was the +110 underdog at home going into the game. Things started off well for the Nationals, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Cubs scored three times in the top of the 3rd.
Mitchell Parker had a rough outing, giving up seven earned runs on seven hits and issuing three walks. The Nationals also used up their bullpen, as Parker was only able to go six innings. Washington’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning and then didn’t score again. The Nationals had a total of five hits.
Washington is 61-76 overall and trails the Phillies by 20 games in the NL East. The Nationals are also 4th in the division and are 20.0 games out of first place. So far, they are 18-20 in divisional matchups. The Nationals are on a three-game losing streak, dropping the final three games of their series vs. the Cubs.
At home, the Nationals are 32-37 this year, and they are 29-39 on the road. As the road favorite, the Nationals have gone 4-3 this year, and they are 12-11 overall as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, they are 49-65. Washington’s overall series record is 17-23-3, and they have a chance to improve that as they kick off their series vs. the Marlins today.
Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 77-60 overall. They have been particularly strong on the road, going 40-28 against the run line. Their average run margin on the season is -0.5 runs per game, and they have been a profitable bet as the underdog, going 66-48 against the run line.
The Washington Nationals are on the road against the Miami Marlins today, with the Over/Under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.9 runs, and their Over/Under record is 66-66. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 18-19. Overall, 41.6% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8.5 runs.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Marlins on the road. This year, he has made 27 starts and has a record of 4-12 with a 5.50 ERA. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.51, and opponents are batting .290 off him this year. In his 27 appearances, Corbin has turned in eight quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Corbin picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run against the Yankees. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This is also the 21st ranked scoring offense in terms of road games. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 11th in the MLB, and are the league’s 5th best team in terms of not striking out. Washington’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and isolated power.
Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 63 RBIs and is batting .290 overall. CJ Abrams has 18 homers but is hitting just .244 for the season. Over his last seven games, Jacob Young is batting .364, and Dylan Crews and Andres Chaparro have two homers apiece in their last six and seven games, respectively.
Miami is coming off a big 7-5 win over the Giants to close out their series. This was especially impressive, as they were the +227 underdog on the money line. It was a four-run 5th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Giants could only score one run after the 5th.
Darren McCaughan put together a good start for the Marlins, going four innings and giving up just three runs on five hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. Miami’s offense was carried by Kyle Stowers, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 30 games for the division lead. Overall, they are 51-86 heading into today’s matchup with the Nationals. The Marlins are on a two-game winning streak, and they are 13-26 against other teams in the NL East.
So far, the Marlins have gone just 25-44 at home compared to 26-42 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 47-73 this season, which includes having lost four straight at home as the underdog. Their overall series record is 11-25-7, and they won their most recent series vs. the Giants.
The Marlins are 64-73 against the run line this season, including a 29-40 mark at home. They have been better against the run line on the road, going 35-33. As an underdog, Miami is 62-58 against the run line, compared to just 2-15 as the favorite. Their average run differential this season is -1.4 runs per game.
When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. This season, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to average 8.9 runs per game. Miami has a 75-58 over/under record for the season and has played 45% of their games with an over/under line set at 8.5 runs.
Miami is sending right-hander Max Meyer to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA. Meyer’s WHIP for the season is 1.38, and he has issued 3.16 walks per nine innings compared to 7.19 strikeouts. In his last outing, Meyer took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had turned in a quality start and picked up the win. Meyer has allowed at least two homers in three of his last four outings.
Overall, the Marlins offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.8 runs per game (29th). They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, the Marlins are batting .241, which is 12th in the league, and they are also 12th in the league in strikeouts. Miami’s team on-base percentage of .296 is 21st in the league.
Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 home runs are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 59 RBIs. Burger’s batting average of .247 is 8th on the team. Kyle Stowers and Derek Hill have been swinging the bat well of late, with Stowers going 8/21 in his last six games, and Hill has three homers in his last five games.
Our prediction for today’s Nationals vs. Marlins game is to take the Marlins on the money line at -113. We have the Marlins winning this one by a final score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 8.5 runs, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room, and we would stick with a Marlins win.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Max Meyer has the sixth-best chances of picking up a win among today’s starters. As for Patrick Corbin, he’s down at 10th, and we also have his strikeout numbers being very low, with a projection of five K’s.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (-113)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Vidal Bruján | Out | Shoulder |
| Xavier Edwards | Out | Back |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Anthony Bender | Out | Undisclosed |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
| Declan Cronin | Questionable | Undisclosed |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Joan Adon | Out | Shoulder/Biceps |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
