Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/8/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Phillies are 85-57 this season and they are starting Seth Johnson on Sunday, while the Marlins are 53-89 and Edward Cabrera is on the mound for them. This NL East matchup has a first pitch set for 1:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami.

NSPPH has the Phillies as the favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -133 compared to the Marlins at +111. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the forecast for Sunday’s game calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.

Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Philadelphia Phillies odds

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 4-1 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
• On the opposing side, the Marlins have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have gone 2-8 vs. the runline and 4-6 straight-up.

It was all Miami in the last game of this series, as the Marlins took down the Phillies by a score of 9-5. The Marlins offense only had two more hits than the Phillies and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +217 on the money line.

Philadelphia got off to a good start in the game, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 3rd. As for the Marlins, they didn’t get on the board until the 2nd but exploded for three runs in the 5th and added another three in the 7th. Miami’s final two runs came in the 8th.

Darren McCaughan only went 4 2/3 innings for the Marlins but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. John McMillon got the win out of the bullpen. Aaron Nola had a rough outing for the Phillies, going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on nine hits.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia is 85-57 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL East. They currently lead the Mets by 7.0 games for the top spot in the division. The Phillies are 25-16 in divisional games this season. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Marlins.

At home, the Phillies have gone 47-25 this season, and they are above .500 at 38-32 on the road. This season, they have really excelled as the favorite, going 72-42. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-15 this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 24-16-6 and have won four straight series overall, including two straight on the road. Their last series loss came back on July 11th.

When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 4.0 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.7 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 70-72, and they have a run line record of 37-33 on the road. They have been favored in 114 games, going 55-59 against the run line, and have been the underdog in 28 games, going 15-13 against the run line.

Despite the Philadelphia Phillies’ over/under record of 66-69, their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, but when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 14-14. Overall, 29.6% of their games have had a higher over/under line than 8.5 runs. The over has hit in their last two games.

Seth Johnson takes the mound for the Phillies in today’s game versus the Marlins. It’s his opportunity to start the season on the right foot, as this will be his first outing of the year.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are 3rd in the league in team batting average, and their team on-base percentage of .329 is 4th in the MLB. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS. One of the reasons for their strong offensive numbers is their collective batting average on balls in play, which is 2nd in the league.

Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late, going 11/23 in his last five games with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .249 with 33 homers and 93 RBIs, which is 9th in the league. Schwarber’s 33 homers are the most on the team, while Bryce Harper is 2nd with 26 homers and is batting .283 for the season.

Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 53-89, putting them 32 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 15-29 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are also 27-47 at home this year.

So far, the Marlins have gone 4-14 when favored, and they are 49-75 as the underdog. As the home underdog, they have gone 23-33 this year. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-8, and they are losing the series vs. the Phillies 1-2.

When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.7 runs per game, while their losses come by an average of 3.9 runs. Miami’s run line record is 66-76 overall, but they are just 31-43 at home. As the favorite, they are 2-16 against the run line, but as the underdog, they are 64-60.

The Miami Marlins have seen their over/under line set at 8.5 runs for today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies. This season, the Marlins have played 77 games that have gone over the total, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over the total in 26 of those games. The over has hit in their last two games.

Edward Cabrera is looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Giants. In that start, he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four starts, Cabrera has given up three earned runs in three of them. His record for the season is 3-6, and he has an ERA of 5.33. Opponents are batting .230 vs. Cabrera this season. The right-hander has made 16 starts, and his ERA at home is 4.66 compared to 8.27 on the road.

Over his last seven games, Connor Norby has two homers and is batting .276. He also has five RBIs during this stretch. Norby is currently on a six-game hitting streak. Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with Burger leading the team with 25 homers and Sánchez right behind him at 17. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs, while Sánchez is second with 59.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game at 3.8. They have been slightly better at home, where they are averaging 4.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league, and are near the bottom of the league in walks and on-base percentage.

Getting the Marlins at +111 on the money line is a great value pick today. We have them winning this one 5-4, and at that payout, they are also a great pick for a parlay. Looking at the starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera is a good pick up for a win today, as he ranks 15th among starters in win probability.

Looking at the Phillies, we don’t see them as a good pick for a parlay or even on the run line. Offensively, they are projected to finish with the eighth fewest runs in the league today, and they also rank towards the bottom in terms of home runs.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Miami Marlins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report