Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/7/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line today, as they are at -240 compared to the Marlins at +198. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and this NL East matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami.

Philadelphia is 85-56 and they have won six straight, and they are starting Aaron Nola. Miami is 52-89 and they have lost two in a row, and they will have Darren McCaughan on the mound.

Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Philadelphia Phillies odds

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• 5-0 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
• In the Marlins’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 9-1 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
• As the underdog, the Marlins have gone 2-8 vs. the runline and 4-6 straight-up.

It was all Phillies in the last game of this series, as they took down the Marlins by a score of 16-2. Philadelphia had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their runs and adding another five in the 6th. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 4th.

Zack Wheeler only went six innings for the Phillies but gave up just one run and struck out seven. He picked up a win in the game, while Austin Kitchen took the loss for Miami, giving up six earned runs in just two innings of work.

At the plate, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber each homered for the Phillies. Turner, Johan Rojas, Bryce Harper, and Kody Clemens each had three RBIs. J.T. Realmuto also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia is on a six-game winning streak and leads the NL East with a record of 85-56. The Phillies hold an eight-game lead over the Mets in the division. So far, they have gone 25-15 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Phillies have been really good, going 47-25 this season. On the road, they are 38-31 and have won six straight as the road team. As the favorite, the Phillies are 72-41 this year, and they are 13-15 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Phillies have an overall series record of 24-16-6 and have won four straight series.

The Phillies have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 37-32. They have covered the run line in six straight road games and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as the favorite. Overall, they have a run line record of 70-71 this season, with an average run margin of +0.9 runs per game.

When the Phillies are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs for their game against the Marlins. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 65-69. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 13-14. This season, 29.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, while 51.1% have had lower lines.

Aaron Nola is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision vs. the Braves. In that start, he gave up two earned runs on four hits in six innings of work. Nola did pitch well in the outing before that, going seven innings and not giving up an earned run vs. the Astros. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with a 3.29 ERA. Nola’s WHIP for the season is 1.15, and he has one complete game shutout to his name. This year, he has turned in 18 quality starts and is averaging 8.46 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .260 (3rd). They have also been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as they are 8th in the league in homers and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is that they don’t strike out a lot and are among the league leaders in walks.

Philadelphia has three hitters who have at least 25 homers this season, with Kyle Schwarber leading the way with 33 long balls. Schwarber has been especially hot of late, going 11/24 in his last five games with five homers and 10 RBIs. Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm are also having strong seasons, with Harper batting .284 with 26 homers and Bohm hitting .290 with 13 homers.

Miami is hosting the Phillies today, and they are 33 games out of the NL East lead, which is currently held by the Phillies. The Marlins are 52-89 overall and have gone just 14-29 in divisional matchups this year. So far, they have dropped two straight games.

At home, the Marlins are 26-47 this year compared to a 26-42 mark on the road. The Marlins have struggled as the favorite this year, going just 4-14, and they are 48-75 as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-8.

The Marlins have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 65-76 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 35-33 against the run line. Miami has been a run line underdog in most games, going 63-60 in that role. They have been a run line favorite just 18 times, and have gone just 2-16 in those games.

Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the Miami Marlins’ game against the Philadelphia Phillies is slightly below the combined run average of 9.0 runs in Marlins games this season. The Marlins have played 26 games with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their over/under record in those games is 25-23. Overall, Miami has played 67 games with lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs this season, which accounts for 47.5% of their games.

Miami is giving the ball to right-hander Darren McCaughan today vs. the Phillies. He has made one start and six appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with an ERA of 8.24. McCaughan’s WHIP for the season is 1.98. In his 19 2/3 innings of work, he has allowed six home runs and is averaging 4.58 walks per nine innings compared to 4.58 strikeouts. The last time he took the mound, McCaughan gave up three earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Giants. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .239, which is 15th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .295 is 22nd.

Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with Burger leading the team with 25 homers and Sánchez sitting in the 2nd spot with 17. Burger also has a team-high 60 RBIs. Derek Hill has three homers in his last six games and is 5/18 in that stretch. Otto Lopez has gone 12/39 in his last 10 games but is still looking for his first home run of the season.

Based on the money line, we really like the Marlins as a value pick today at +198. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Marlins. With this being the payout, we would recommend taking the Marlins on the money line.

Looking at Aaron Nola’s projections, we have him finishing with five strikeouts, which has him ranked 19th among starters today. As for the Marlins and Phillies lineups, the Marlins are projected to finish with nine hits, compared to the Phillies at eight.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• On the run line we like Marlins (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Miami Marlins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report