Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/6/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

At 7:10 PM ET, the Phillies and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -231 compared to the Marlins at +191. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

Philadelphia is 84-56 and they have won five straight, while the Marlins are 52-88 and they are 5th in the NL East. Zack Wheeler will start for the Phillies, while Edward Cabrera will go for the Marlins. BSFL will be televising this one.

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Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 5-0 in their five most recent road games, including a 4-1 runline record.
• Conversely, the Marlins have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 9-1 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
• As the underdog, the Marlins have gone 2-8 vs. the runline and 4-6 straight-up.

Philadelphia picked up a 5-2 road win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -237 on the money line.

Ranger Suarez got the win for the Phillies, going five innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and allowed two walks. Adam Oller struggled on the mound for the Marlins, giving up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Bryson Stott and Kody Clemens each had two RBIs for the Phillies’ offense. Stott, Andrew McCutchen, and Rhys Hoskins each scored two runs. As for the Marlins, Nick Fortes went 2/3 with two RBIs.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With an overall record of 84-56, the Phillies lead the Mets by eight games for the NL East lead. The Phillies have won five straight games, and they took the first game of this series vs. the Marlins. In the NL East, they have gone 24-15 this year.

Philadelphia has been really good at home, going 47-25, and they are 37-31 on the road. The Phillies have won five straight road games, and as the road favorite, they are 25-19 this year. So far, they have gone 71-41 as the favorite compared to 13-15 as the underdog.

When betting the run line on the Phillies, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road this season. They are 36-32 against the run line away from Citizens Bank Park, including covering in their last five road games. The Phillies have an average run margin of 0.5 on the road compared to 1.2 at home, and their overall run line record is 69-71.

When the Phillies are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. This season, the combined run average in their games is 8.9 runs. Overall, the over/under record for the Phillies this season is 64-69. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 11-14. This season, 73.6% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Wheeler has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 13-6 with a 2.63 ERA. So far, he has turned in 21 quality starts and is averaging 9.82 strikeouts per nine innings. Wheeler’s WHIP for the season is currently .98. In his last outing, he pitched seven scoreless innings, giving up just four hits, and got the win. Before that, he had given up two earned runs in three straight outings. Wheeler has been much better at home this year, coming in with a 2.53 ERA compared to 3.84 on the road.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The Phillies are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Philadelphia has three of the league’s top 13 home run hitters, with Kyle Schwarber leading the team and 8th in the league with 32 homers. Schwarber has been hot of late, going 10/37 in his last nine games with four homers. He also has driven in seven runs during this stretch. Alec Bohm and Schwarber are both among the league leaders in RBIs, with 89 apiece.

Miami is 52-88 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 32 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 14-28 in divisional games. The Marlins are looking to bounce back after dropping the first game of this series vs. the Phillies.

At home, the Marlins are 26-46 compared to 26-42 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 48-74 this season, but they have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-8, and they have lost eight straight series.

When betting the run line on the Marlins, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road, where they are 35-33 compared to 30-42 at home. Miami’s average run margin in all games is -1.4, but it drops to -1.7 at home and -1.0 on the road. The Marlins have been favored just 18 times this season, going 2-16 on the run line in those games.

When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over has been a popular bet, as their games have gone over the total in 73.6% of their contests this season. Miami’s games have averaged 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 75-61 on the year. The Marlins have gone over the total in 20 of the 28 games in which the over/under line was set at 7.5 runs, and their games have gone over the total in three straight contests.

Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Giants on August 31st, Cabrera went 5 1/3 innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, he has given up at least two homers in three of those starts. This season, he has a record of 3-6, an ERA of 5.33, and opponents are batting .230 off the right-hander. Cabrera’s WHIP for the season is 1.47. Out of his 16 starts, he has three quality starts.

Over his last four games, Derek Hill has gone 4/14 with two homers and three RBIs. He has also scored three runs over that stretch. Hill’s recent surge has his season average up to .247, and he has an OBP of .303. Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers is 14th in the league. He also leads the team with 60 RBIs.

As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just 15th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in walks and on-base percentage.

Our prediction for this Phillies vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins on the money line, with a payout of +191. We have the Marlins winning this game by a score of 5-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler is projected to finish with more strikeouts than Edward Cabrera, but we have Cabrera finishing with a better ERA.

Offensively, our projections have the Marlins finishing with eight hits compared to the Phillies with seven. The Phillies are projected to finish with just four runs, which is one of the lowest totals in the league today. As for the Marlins, they are projected to finish with five runs.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• Take the Phillies on the moneyline
• The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Miami Marlins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report