Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 9/5/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line today, as they are sitting at -229 compared to the Marlins at +188. Thursday’s matchup is being played at 6:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. Philadelphia is 83-56, and they are on a four-game winning streak. Miami is 52-87 and they are 5th in the NL East.

MLBN will be televising Thursday’s NL East matchup, and Ranger Suarez is starting for the Phillies, while the Marlins are going with Adam Oller.

Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Philadelphia Phillies odds

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• 4-1 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Marlins have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
• The Phillies have a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 4-6.
• When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into their last game vs. the Blue Jays, the Phillies closed out the series with a 4-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -127 on the money line. It was a big 1st inning for the Phillies, as they scored a run and added another two in the 2nd.

Cristopher Sánchez put together a good start for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just two runs on six hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win. Kyle Schwarber was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and a run scored. The Phillies also had three other players with a single hit.

Philadelphia heads into today’s road matchup vs. the Marlins having won four straight games, and they lead the NL East with a record of 83-56. The Phillies hold a seven-game lead over the Braves in the division. This season, they are 23-15 in the division and are a solid 47-25 at home.

As for how they have fared on the road, the Phillies are 36-31 this season. Philadelphia has been a good team to back as the favorite this season, going 70-41. They are also 24-19 as the favorite on the road. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 24-16-6 and have won four straight series.

When betting the Phillies on the run line, it’s been a better idea to do so on the road this season. Philadelphia is 35-32 against the run line away from home, compared to 33-39 at home. The Phillies’ average run margin on the road is +0.4, compared to +1.2 at home. They’ve covered the run line in four straight road games and are 15-13 against the run line as the underdog this season.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road facing the Miami Marlins today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 64-68. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-16-1. So far this season, 48.9% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.

Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces off against the Marlins on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Suárez has one complete game shutout this year and 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.98 strikeouts and just 2.03 walks.

As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game this season, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in batting average and have the league’s 8th ranked home run total. Philadelphia also comes in as one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts and are 7th in walks.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Schwarber’s 32 homers leading the team and Harper’s 26 homers being good for 2nd. Schwarber is also on a three-game hitting streak and has four homers in his last 10 games. Harper has gone 13/34 in that stretch.

Miami is coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Nationals with a 4-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +123 on the money line. It was a good start for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning and added another run in the 2nd.

Valente Bellozo put together a good start for the Marlins, going six innings and not giving up a run. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win. The Marlins’s offense was carried by Xavier Edwards, who went 2/5 with a run scored and an RBI.

Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 52-87, putting them 31.0 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 14-27 against other teams in the NL East. At home, the Marlins are 26-45 compared to 26-42 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 48-73 this season, and they have won three straight games as the underdog overall.

The Marlins have an overall series record of 11-25-8, and they split their most recent series vs. the Nationals. So far, they are 4-14 when favored this year. Miami’s overall record is the result of going just 6-4 over their last ten games.

In their last three games as the underdog, the Miami Marlins have covered the run line, and they are now 63-58 ATS in those games. In their last three games as the underdog, the Marlins have covered the run line, and they are now 63-58 ATS in those games.

Today’s over/under line is set at 8 runs for the Miami Marlins’ game against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins have had a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-60. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 17-10-2. Overall, 52.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, and their current under streak is at 2 games.

Adam Oller has been solid in his first two starts of the season for the Marlins. He picked up a win in his first outing, going 5 2/3 innings and striking out 6. Then, he went 6 innings in his last start, striking out 8 and allowing 2 earned runs.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game, averaging just 3.8 runs per contest. This is a result of their poor home run numbers, as they are just 21st in the league in homers. As a team, they are batting .240, which is 14th in the league, but their on-base percentage of .296 is just 20th in the league.

Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top run producer this season, as his 60 RBIs are the best on the team. He also leads the Marlins with 25 home runs, which is 15th in the league. Over his last four games, Connor Norby has gone 4/16 with a home run and two RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is on a four-game hitting streak and is batting .245 for the season.

We see the Marlins as a great value pick today, with them being at +188 on the money line. At these odds, we would recommend staying away from the over/under line, but if you are looking for a prediction, we have the final score at 5-4 in favor of the Marlins.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Adam Oller finishing with six strikeouts, which would have him as the seventh most among starters. As for Ranger Suarez, we have him finishing with six K’s, which would have him as the 10th most among starters.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+188)
• On the run line we like Marlins (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Miami Marlins Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report