Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Preview
The Mets are the road favorite today, with their money line odds sitting at -132 compared to the Marlins at +113. This NL East matchup is set to start at 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Marlins are currently on a three-game winning streak, and their record of 14-32 has them 5th in the NL East. The Mets are 4th in the NL East, as they are 20-24 overall.
Today’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and WPIX will be televising this game. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, while the Marlins are sending Braxton Garrett to the mound.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – New York Mets odds
Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- Conversely, the Marlins have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Mets have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a runline record of 4-6.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 1-9 record against the runline and a 3-7 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Miami cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Mets, they had their best chance to score in the 6th, but could only muster two runs.
Jesús Luzardo started for the Marlins and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, Christian Scott got the start for the Mets and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in just four innings of work.
Nick Fortes was the Marlins’ top hitter, going 3/3 with a home run and three RBIs. Josh Bell and Jake Burger each drove in two for Miami’s offense.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 11 games. Overall, the Mets are 20-24 as they play the Marlins on the road. So far, they have gone just 4-7 in divisional matchups this year.
New York has lost two straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10. This season, the Mets are an even 10-10 on the road compared to 10-14 at home. As the favorite, the Mets are 11-11 and 9-13 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 6-7-2, and they have lost two straight series at home.
When the Mets win, they win big. They are 20-24 against the run line this season, but their average run margin in their 20 wins is +3.0 runs per game. However, they have lost five straight against the run line as the favorite and are just 8-14 against the run line in those games.
With a combined run average of 8.7, the New York Mets have played to an over/under record of 22-22 this season. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 6-7, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. The over has hit in three straight games for the Mets, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 3.00. Severino has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing where he finished with a no-decision. In that start vs. the Braves, he went five innings, giving up two earned runs, four hits, and three walks. One of the hits he allowed was a home run. Severino’s ERA on the road is 4.5 compared to 2.39 at home.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. However, they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .231, which is 16th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .304 is also below average.
Over his last 10 games, Pete Alonso has gone 11/37 with two homers and seven RBIs, and he is currently 4th in the league with 10 home runs. Alonso is still looking to get his batting average up, as he is hitting just .226 for the season. Brandon Nimmo is batting just .185 over his last eight games, but he does have three homers in that stretch and is 12th in the league with 27 RBIs.
Miami is 14-32 overall and is 18 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 3-11. The Marlins have won three straight games, and they have taken a 1-0 series lead vs. the Mets.
At home, the Marlins are 7-17 this year compared to a road record of 7-15. This season, the Marlins are just 3-11 as the favorite and 11-21 as the underdog. They have been much better as the home underdog, going 4-6. Miami’s overall series record is 2-11-1.
When it comes to the run line, the Marlins have been a better bet on the road this season, going 10-12 compared to 6-18 at home. They have covered the run line in five straight games as the underdog and are just 1-13 as the favorite. Miami’s average run margin in losses is -3.9, compared to +3.4 in wins.
The Miami Marlins have played 35 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in 27 of those contests. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their games have gone over the total in 76.1% of their games this season. Today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their last game against the Mets went over the total with a combined 8 runs scored.
Braxton Garrett is getting the start for the Marlins today, and he will be facing the Mets at home. In his first start of the season, Garrett went 5 1/3 innings, giving up 5 runs, all of which were earned. He struck out 8 batters but did give up a home run.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. Their home run numbers are also not great, as they are just 15th in the league in homers. Miami’s team batting average is just .228, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Miami’s team ISO of .117 is also the worst in the league.
Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been two of the Marlins’ top power threats this season, as De La Cruz’s nine homers are the best on the team and Chisholm Jr. is 2nd with five homers. Chisholm Jr. has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/25 in his last six games. Josh Bell and Nick Gordon are also tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece.
The best way to play the Mets vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins on the money line, where they are offering a payout of +113. We have the Marlins winning this one by a final of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Braxton Garrett finishing with six strikeouts compared to Luis Severino with seven. However, Garrett is a better option to pick up the win, as he has the sixth-best chances among starters.
Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with eight hits compared to the Marlins with eight. However, the Mets are projected to finish with more home runs, with the Marlins finishing with just one.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+113)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Avisaíl García | Out | Hamstring |
| Tim Anderson | Out | Back |
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Xavier Edwards | Out | Foot |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Nimmo | Questionable | Illness |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Out | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
