Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Brewers and Marlins will face off in an NL matchup at 6:40 PM ET. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line (-134). The Marlins have a record of 15-33, while the Brewers lead the NL Central with a record of 27-19.
Joe Ross will start for the Brewers, while the Marlins are sending Ryan Weathers to the mound. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the game can be seen on BSWI.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Miami Marlins Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Marlins, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Brewers have a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 4-6 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 1-9 record against the runline and a 3-7 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Astros with a 9-4 loss. Milwaukee was the +117 underdog on the road going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Brewers, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Astros scored four times in the bottom of the first.
Milwaukee started Colin Rea, and he took the loss, going just 4 1/3 innings, and giving up five earned runs on eight hits. The Brewers also issued four walks in the loss and hit a batter.
Milwaukee heads into today’s game vs. the Marlins with a record of 27-19, putting them 1st in the NL Central. The Brewers hold a 2.0 game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. In their 46 games, the Brewers have gone 13-7 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Brewers are 12-9 this season, and they have gone 15-10 on the road. So far, they have been a bit better as the underdog compared to the favorite, where they are 13-9 and 14-10, respectively. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 8-5-2 this season.
They are coming off a series loss, dropping two of three games vs. the Astros. Milwaukee is 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.
When betting the run line, the Brewers have been a much better bet on the road than at home. They are 15-10 against the run line as the visitor, compared to just 8-13 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 16-8 against the run line in those games, compared to 7-15 as the favorite. Their average run margin on the road is +1.1, compared to +0.5 at home. Their overall run line record is 23-23, with an average run margin of +0.8.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the Milwaukee Brewers’ game against the Miami Marlins is right in line with their season average. The Brewers have played in 29 games with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, going over the total in 18 of those contests. Their combined run average for the season is 9.4 runs per game, and they have an over/under record of 28-18 on the year.
Joe Ross will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Pirates on May 14th, he went five innings, giving up two earned runs, and he finished with six strikeouts. Looking at his overall numbers, Ross has made eight starts, and his record is 2-4. The right-hander’s ERA is 4.61, along with a WHIP of 1.37. Opposing batters are hitting .253 this season off Ross. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 7.68 strikeouts per nine innings.
Overall, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 2nd best mark in the league, and they have been good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 18th in the league in this category. The Brewers also have a team OBP of .335 and a team slugging percentage of .425.
William Contreras has been the Brewers’ top hitter so far this season, batting .341 with a team-high 37 RBIs. He has also gone 2/8 over his last eight games. Joey Ortiz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/28 in his last eight games, and he is currently on a six-game hitting streak. Rhys Hoskins is the Brewers’ top home run hitter, with nine homers, but he is batting just .233 for the season.
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 7-3 loss. Miami was the +119 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with two runs in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Mets scored four times in the top of the first.
Sixto Sanchez took the loss for the Marlins, going only four innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. Dane Myers had only one hit, but it was a home run, and Christian Bethancourt also homered for the Marlins but went just /3.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 19 games. Overall, the Marlins are 15-33 and have gone just 4-12 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are opening up a series at home vs. the Brewers, and they are 8-18 at home this year.
So far, the Marlins have gone 7-15 on the road. This season, the Marlins have really struggled in night games, going 6-18. As the underdog, Miami is 12-22 compared to 3-11 as the favorite. The Marlins’ overall series record is 3-11-1, and they have won two straight series.
When betting on the Marlins’ run line this season, bettors have had more success when Miami is the underdog. The Marlins are just 1-13 against the run line when favored, compared to 16-18 when they are the underdog. Miami’s average run margin is -1.7 runs per game, and the Marlins have a run line record of 17-31 overall.
The Miami Marlins have been involved in games with high run totals this season, as their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game. The over/under record for Marlins games this season is 29-19, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. In games with an over/under line of 8 runs, the over/under record is 3-4. The over has hit in three straight Marlins games, including their last game, which had a combined 19 runs.
Miami is sending left-hander Ryan Weathers to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made 9 starts this season and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.81 ERA. Weathers most recently faced the Tigers and finished with a no-decision, going 8 innings and not giving up a run. In his three outings before that, he had given up at least three earned runs. Weathers has a WHIP of 1.17 and batting average allowed of .220. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.89 strikeouts and 2.9 walks.
So far this season, the Marlins offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 3.8 runs per game (24th) and have the league’s 15th worst home run total. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. However, they do come into the game with a few hitters on a nice stretch of games, including Bryan De La Cruz, who is batting .250 over his last five games and has gone deep once in that stretch.
Josh Bell has also been swinging a hot bat for the Marlins, going 8/22 in his last five games with a home run and five RBIs. He is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Chisholm Jr. for the team lead with six homers. Bell and Chisholm Jr. are also 2nd and 3rd on the team in RBIs, respectively.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins on the money line at +114. With the Marlins predicted to win this one by a final score of 6-5, there is some value in taking them to win straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Joe Ross finishing with six strikeouts compared to Ryan Weathers with five. However, we have Weathers finishing with a higher ERA than Ross, but Ross with a better chance of picking up a win.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+114)
- On the run line we like Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Avisaíl García | Out | Hamstring |
| Tim Anderson | Out | Back |
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Xavier Edwards | Out | Foot |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
