Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Reds and Marlins are set to face off in an NL matchup at 6:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park in Miami. The Reds are the betting favorite on the money line (-141) and have a record of 53-58, which has them 5th in the NL Central. Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 42-70.
Monday’s over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and BSFL will be televising this one. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds, while Roddery Munoz goes for the Marlins.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Cincinnati Reds odds
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Reds have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Marlins have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games, the Reds have a 4-6 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- The Marlins have a 2-8 record vs. the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati closed out their series vs. the Giants with a tough 8-2 loss. Heading into the game, the Reds were the slight favorite at -113 on the money line. Things started off well for the Reds, as they got on the board with two runs in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Giants scored two runs in the top of the 2nd.
Carson Spiers got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. The Reds’ offense was carried by Santiago Espinal, who went 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is on the road today, taking on the Marlins with an overall record of 53-58. The Reds are in 5th place in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by nine games. Overall, they are 14-15 in divisional matchups this season.
At home, the Reds are 28-31 this year, and they have gone 25-27 on the road. As the road favorite, the Reds are 8-4 this year, and they are 27-25 as the favorite overall. Cincinnati lost two straight road games to close out their series vs. the Giants.
When betting the Reds on the run line, it’s best to back them on the road, where they are 32-20 ATS compared to 26-33 ATS at home. They have a 0.6 run scoring margin on the road, compared to -0.1 at home. They are 36-23 ATS as an underdog and 22-30 ATS as a favorite. In their wins, they have an average run margin of 3.7, while in their losses, it’s -2.9.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs is right in line with the Cincinnati Reds’ season average over/under line of 9 runs per game. The Reds have played 57 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, and they have gone over the total in 49.1% of their games this season. Cincinnati’s over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 10-9, and they have hit the over in two straight games.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made 31 appearances this season, with five of those coming as a starter. Martinez’s ERA for the season is 3.65, along with a record of 5-5. In his 79 innings of work, he has a WHIP of 1.13 and is averaging 7.18 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last three outings, Martinez has come out of the bullpen for each one. Most recently, he went one inning vs. the Giants, giving up one earned run on two hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had picked up the win in two straight appearances.
Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario have been the Reds’ top power threats this season, as they are both tied for the team lead with 18 homers. De La Cruz is batting .255 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 45 RBIs, while Candelario is batting just .227 and is 2nd on the team in RBIs. However, Candelario has struggled of late, going just 4/28 in his last eight games.
Spencer Steer is the Reds’ top hitter in terms of RBIs, as he has driven in 65 runs while batting .231 with 15 homers. Tyler Stephenson has also homered in two of his last eight games and has five RBIs in that stretch.
Miami closed out their series vs. the Braves with an impressive 7-0 win. Heading into the game, they were the heavy favorite at +211 on the money line. It was a six-run 4th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Braves could only score three runs the entire game. Miami’s offense was carried by Jonah Bride, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Edward Cabrera got the start for the Marlins, going five innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out eight Braves batters. Miami’s bullpen closed things out with two scoreless innings, and the Marlins picked up the json as a +211 underdog on the road.
Miami is 42-70 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 24.5 games in the division. The Marlins are just 11-23 in divisional games this year. They have won two straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Braves with a win.
At home, the Marlins are 22-34 this year compared to a 20-36 mark on the road. So far, they are 4-13 when favored and 38-57 as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 10-21-5 this year, and they are just 5-5 in their last 10 games.
When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.8 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.7 runs per game. They have a run line record of 53-59, and are 25-31 on the run line at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games at home, and are 51-44 against the run line as the underdog.
When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is exactly the same as their combined run average for the season. The Marlins have hit the over in 60 of their 109 games this season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. The over/under line for their games is usually set at 8 runs, but it has been set at 8.5 runs 35 times this season. In those games, the over has hit 18 times and the under has hit 17 times. Miami’s games have gone under the total in each of their last four games.
Miami is sending right-hander Roddery Muñoz to the mound today vs. the Reds. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 2-5 with a 5.46 ERA. Muñoz’s WHIP for the season is 1.38, and he has turned in two quality starts. In his last outing, Muñoz picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Muñoz has been much better on the road this season, with an ERA of 4.86 compared to 6.85 at home.
The Marlins offense has been one of the worst in the majors this season, as they are just 29th in runs per game at 3.6. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage. However, they are hoping that Jake Burger and Xavier Edwards can keep up their hot hitting, as Burger has gone 10/30 in his last eight games, with four homers, and Edwards is also 13/30 in his last eight games.
Burger comes into the game with a team-high 47 RBIs and 17 homers, which is 15th best in the league. For the season, he is batting .240. Jesus Sanchez is also a threat in the lineup, as he has 12 homers and 41 RBIs, while batting .241.
Our predicted score for this Reds vs. Marlins matchup is 6-4 in favor of the Reds. With the money line payout for a Reds win sitting at -141, we see this as the best way to play this one.
Looking at some of the projections for the starting pitchers, Nick Martinez is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, and we have Roddery Muñoz finishing with five as well.
Offensively, the Reds lineup is predicted to finish with 10 strikeouts, which is the second-most in the league today. They are also predicted to finish with six runs, which is the third most.
For the Marlins, they are projected to finish with eight strikeouts, and their offense is predicted to finish with eight hits and four runs.
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- The Reds should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Will Benson | Out | Personal |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
