Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Betting Tips 9/22/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Preview

At 1:40 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -196 compared to the Marlins at +164. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Grant Holmes is starting for the Braves, and they are 3rd in the NL East with an overall record of 84-71. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 57-98 and will be starting Darren McCaughan.

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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats

• The Braves are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• The Marlins, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• The Braves have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 4-6.
• When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games.

The most recent game o of this Braves vs Marlins series came right down to the end, as the Marlins rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 6-2 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -275 on the money line.

Atlanta got to Marlins starter Adam Oller, scoring four of their six runs in the first two innings. Oller lasted just 5 2/3 innings and gave up two homers. On the other side, Max Fried pitched well for the Braves, going six innings and giving up just one earned run.

Matt Olson and Gio Urshela each homered for the Braves, while Marcell Ozuna went 3/4 with an RBI. Michael Harris II also had a good game at the plate, going 3/5 with two runs scored.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Atlanta is 84-71 overall and trails the Phillies by eight games in the NL East. So far, they are 25-23 in divisional games. The Braves are on the road today, and they are 42-38 as the road team this year.

The Braves have an overall series record of 26-17-7 this year, and they are 71-53 as the favorite. As the underdog, the Braves are 13-18 this season. Atlanta’s overall record includes a mark of 5-5 across their last 10 games, and they are currently tied 1-1 in their series vs. the Marlins.

The Braves have been a better bet on the run line on the road this season, going 43-37 compared to 31-44 at home. Their average run margin overall is +0.6, but it jumps to +1.2 on the road and drops to -0.1 at home. They have been favored in 124 games this season, going 56-68 on the run line, while they are 18-13 as underdogs. Their average run margin in wins is +3.8, while it drops to -3.3 in losses.

Atlanta is on the road against Miami today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Braves have an over/under record of 58-92 this season and the combined run average in their games is 8.2. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-27. Overall, 30.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s, and their current under streak is at 2 games.

Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. So far, he has made 23 appearances and five starts. Holmes’ record for the season is 2-1, and he has an ERA of 3.83. Opposing batters are hitting .264 this season off Holmes, and he has a WHIP of 1.28. The right-hander has made one quality start this year and is averaging 8.59 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Holmes went four innings, giving up two earned runs, two walks, and a homer. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.

Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear for the Braves, as he comes into the game with a five-game hitting streak while batting .310 for the season. Ozuna also leads the team with 38 homers and 101 RBIs. Matt Olson is also swinging the bat well for the Braves, as he is hitting .368 over his last six games and has four homers during that stretch. For the season, Olson is batting .243 with 29 homers.

As a team, the Braves are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they are 11th in batting average and have the 6th best Isolated Power mark in the league.

Miami is 57-98 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 18-33 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins have struggled at home this year, going 30-50, and they are 27-48 on the road.

The Marlins have dropped three straight series and are 11-28-9 in series this year. So far, they are just 4-14 when favored and 53-84 as the underdog. Miami is 3-7 across their last 10 games and will be at home for today’s matchup vs. the Braves.

When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.8 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.9 runs per game. Miami is 72-83 against the run line this season, including a 34-46 mark at home. As the favorite, the Marlins are just 2-16 against the run line, but as the underdog, they are 70-67. Their average run differential on the season is -1.4 runs per game.

When the Miami Marlins are at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 82-68. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 28-25. So far this season, 20.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, with the majority of their games having lower lines. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Miami is sending right-hander Darren McCaughan to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made four starts and nine appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with a 7.64 ERA. McCaughan’s WHIP for the season is 1.82, and he has allowed a total of eight home runs. Opponents are batting .322 this season vs. McCaughan. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four outings.

Coming into the game, the Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. This is also the worst mark in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Miami’s offense is also last in the league in walks and have the 25th ranked OPS in the league.

Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 in his last nine games with two homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him take over the team lead in RBIs (68) and put him 15th in the league in homers. Burger is also on a three-game hitting streak. Josh Bell is also on a seven-game hitting streak for the Marlins.

With the Marlins being the underdogs at +164, we see this as a great value pick. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, giving you a couple of different ways you could look to bet this one. You could take the Marlins on the money line or look to the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Darren McCaughan finishing with four strikeouts, and Grant Holmes with five. McCaughan has a much better chance of picking up a win, as he is 18th in our starting pitcher rankings, compared to Holmes at 16th.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips

• We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+164)
• The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Miami Marlins Injury Report

Atlanta Braves Injury Report