Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Preview
Max Fried will start for the Braves on Saturday, and they are facing the Marlins, who will have Adam Oller on the mound. The money line odds have the Braves at -265 compared to the Marlins at +219. This NL East matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami.
The over/under line for this one is currently at 8 runs, and the Braves are 3rd in the NL East with an overall record of 83-71. The Marlins are 5th in the division at 57-97.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Atlanta Braves odds
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Braves have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Marlins have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a runline record of 4-6.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Miami picked up a 4-3 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a three-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up one in the 5th. As for the Braves, they scored one run in the 3rd and added two more in the 6th.
Valente Bellozo got the win for the Marlins, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three runs. Jesus Tinoco got the save. Charlie Morton had a rough outing for the Braves, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up four runs.
Jake Burger and Kyle Stowers each had two hits and an RBI for the Marlins’ offense. Ramon Laureano hit the game’s only home run while going 2/4 with three RBIs.
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Atlanta is two games above .500 at 83-71, and they are nine games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Overall, they have gone 24-23 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves lost the first game of this series vs. the Marlins, and they are 26-17-7 in series this year.
At home, the Braves have gone 42-33 this year compared to 41-38 on the road. So far, they have been a good favorite, going 70-53, but just 13-18 as the underdog. Looking at their overall record, the Braves are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
In games where the Braves have been favored, they have gone 55-68 against the run line. As the underdog, they have gone 18-13. Their overall run line record is 73-81, with an average run margin of 0.5 runs per game. Their run line record on the road is 42-37, and their scoring margin on the road is 1.2 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the Braves’ season average of 8.2 runs per game. Atlanta has played in 87 games with over/under lines set above 8 runs, going 9-16-1 in those contests. Overall, the Braves have an over/under record of 58-91 this season.
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Fried has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 9-10 with a 3.50 ERA. This season, he has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 5.63. At home, his record is 3-4 with a 4.73 ERA. Fried has turned in 14 quality starts this year, along with two complete games and one shutout. In his last outing, he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work and took the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 38 home runs are the best mark on the Braves and 5th best in the MLB. He has also been a strong all-around hitter, coming in with a batting average of .307 and an OBP of .382. Ozuna has also been hot of late, as he is currently on a four-game hitting streak.
Michael Harris II has been swinging a hot bat for the Braves, going 11/31 in his last seven games with four homers and seven RBIs. As a team, the Braves are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest.
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 57-97, putting them 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 18-32 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are coming off a loss in the final game of their series vs. the Nationals.
At home, the Marlins are 30-49 compared to 27-48 on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the favorite, going 4-14. As for their record as the underdog, they are 53-83 this year. The Marlins have dropped three straight series and have an overall series record of 11-28-9 this year.
The Marlins have a run line record of 72-82 this season, with a run line record of 34-45 at home and 38-37 on the road. Their average run differential is -1.4 runs per game, and they have been the underdog in 136 of their 138 games. They have a run line record of 70-66 as the underdog this season.
The Miami Marlins are playing host to the Atlanta Braves in a game with an over/under line of 8 runs. The Marlins have a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 82-67. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs this season, their record is 18-12-2. Overall, 54.5% of Miami’s games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Right-hander Adam Oller gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Braves at home. Oller has made six starts this season and has a record of 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. His WHIP for the season is 1.42. In his last outing, Oller took the loss, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. He has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings. Oller’s only quality start of the season came on August 30th, where he didn’t allow a run in six innings of work.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this season, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per game. Miami’s offense is batting a collective .242, and their team on-base percentage of .297 is 18th in the league. The Marlins have been one of the worst home run-hitting teams in the league this season and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of isolated power.
Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 in his last nine games with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .245 with a team-high 27 homers and 68 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is 2nd on the team in RBIs (62) and is batting .247 for the season.
With the Marlins being at home and having them winning this game straight up, we really like the value of them at +219. With a predicted final score of 6-5, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Adam Oller going 6-7 innings, and he is also giving you a good payout at +219. If you’re looking at Max Fried, he is projected to go around five innings, and he is 14th in our projections for strikeouts.
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- We like the Marlins on the moneyline (+219)
- The Marlins are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | Out | Shoulder |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
