Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -203 compared to the Marlins at +171. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves, and they are 83-70, which has them 3rd in the NL East. The Marlins are 56-97 and will be sending Valente Bellozo to the mound. BSFL will be televising Friday’s matchup.
Check out BetCoco for Miami Marlins – Atlanta Braves odds
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Braves are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Marlins, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games, the Braves have a 5-5 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Reds, the Braves closed out the series with a 15-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -217. It was a six-run 3rd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Reds could only score three runs, all of which came in the 3rd.
Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going five innings and giving up just two earned runs, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Michael Harris II, who went 3/5 with two homers and four RBIs.
Atlanta is on the road today, taking on the Marlins, and they are two games over .500 at 83-70. The Braves are 3rd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by eight games. So far, they have gone 24-22 in divisional games.
As the favorite, the Braves are 70-52 this year and 13-18 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Braves have won two straight as the favorite. They are also on a two-game winning streak on the road, and their overall record on the road is 41-37. The Braves’ series record is 26-17-7 this year, and they won their most recent series vs. the Reds.
When the Braves are on the road, they have a run line record of 42-36, and they have covered the run line in two straight games. Their average run differential on the road is +1.2, and their average run differential in winning games is +3.8.
The Atlanta Braves have an over/under record of 58-90 this season, with an average combined run total of 8.2 runs per game. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and when the line has been set at that number, the Braves have gone 14-26. Overall, 30.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s 8.5-run total.
Charlie Morton will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Dodgers, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Morton has been pretty solid, as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. Overall, he has a record of 8-8 and an ERA of 4.01. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. Opponents are batting .239 off the right-hander this year. For the season, Morton has made 28 starts, 12 of which were quality starts.
Marcell Ozuna has been a key power bat for the Braves this season, as his 38 homers are 5th in the league and the top mark on the team. He is also batting .306 for the season and has driven in 101 runs, which is 10th in the league. Matt Olson is also a significant power threat, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 homers and has gone deep in three straight games. For the season, Olson is batting .243.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 4th in the league in home runs. They have been better on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Currently, the Braves have a lot of hitters on long hitting streaks, including Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ramon Laureano, who are both on four-game streaks.
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 20-4 loss. Miami was the +174 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Dodgers scored five times in the 3rd.
Miami started Edward Cabrera, and he took the loss, going just 2 1/3 innings, and giving up seven earned runs. The Marlins also used five other pitchers out of the bullpen, and none of them could stop the bleeding. Griffin Conine had only one hit, but it was a home run, and Jake Burger also hit a homer for the Marlins but scored just one run.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, and they trail the Phillies by 35 games for the division lead. Overall, the Marlins are 56-97, and they are 17-32 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Dodgers before winning the finale.
At home, the Marlins are 29-49 this year, and they are 27-48 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 52-83 this season and just 4-14 when favored. Miami has dropped two straight games, and they are just 2-8 over their last 10 games.
When the Marlins win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8, but when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.9 runs. They are 71-82 against the run line overall, including 33-45 at home. They are 38-37 against the run line on the road, but have failed to cover in their last two home games and are just 2-16 against the run line as the favorite this season.
The Miami Marlins are hosting the Atlanta Braves today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Miami’s games have had an average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 82-66. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 28-24. Overall, 20.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their current over streak is at three games.
Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today and will be looking to bounce back from a couple of rough outings. Most recently, he took the loss vs. the Nationals, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. He also allowed a homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Bellozo’s record for the season is 2-4, and his ERA is 3.70. Opponents are batting .243 this season vs. Bellozo. Per nine innings, he has 6.02 strikeouts and 2.93 walks.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and walks. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.
Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 27 homers are 14th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 67 RBIs. Over his last seven games, Burger has gone 7/26 with two homers and six RBIs. Otto Lopez has also been swinging a hot bat, going 9/26 with two homers and six RBIs in his last seven games. Lopez is also on a six-game hitting streak.
Our prediction for this Braves vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Marlins on the money line, with the payout sitting at +171. We have the Marlins winning this one 5-4, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Charlie Morton finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Valente Bellozo with six. However, Bellozo has better odds of picking up a win and is projected to allow fewer runs than Morton.
Offensively, we have the Marlins finishing with nine hits compared to the Braves with eight. The Braves are projected to finish with fewer runs than the Marlins and are also lower in terms of home runs.
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Dane Myers | Out | Ankle |
| Max Meyer | Out | Shoulder |
| John McMillon | Out | Elbow |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Calvin Faucher | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Nardi | Out | Elbow |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| Reynaldo López | Out | Shoulder |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
