Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
From Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, we have the Reds and Dodgers facing off in an NL matchup. The money line odds have the Dodgers at -210, while the Reds are the betting underdog at +178. The over/under line is sitting at 9 runs, and MLBN is carrying this game on TV.
First pitch for this one is set for 10:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 70’s with partly cloudy skies. Frankie Montas will start for the Reds, and he is facing off against James Paxton. Cincinnati is 19-25, while the Dodgers are 29-17 and have won two straight.
Check out BetCoco for Los Angeles Dodgers – Cincinnati Reds odds
Los Angeles Dodgers Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 5-0 runline record.
- Conversely, the Dodgers have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- As the favorite, the Dodgers are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 6-4 vs. the runline.
- The Reds have a 2-8 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati cruised to a 7-2 win over the Dodgers in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring five of their seven runs. As for the Dodgers, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Reds were at +254 on the money line.
Brent Suter only went two-thirds of an inning for the Reds but didn’t give up a run or a hit. Nick Martinez got the win out of the bullpen. Tyler Glasnow had a rough outing for the Dodgers, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz each homered for the Reds, while Tyler Stephenson scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Gavin Lux had a two RBI game at the plate for the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 19-25 overall and is 4th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 7.5 games. So far, they are 1-2 in divisional games and have lost six straight series. The Reds have been better at home (9-13) than on the road (10-12) this season.
As the road underdog, the Reds are 7-11 this year and are an even 10-10 when favored. Cincinnati really needed a win yesterday, as they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games overall.
The Reds are a team that has been a great bet to cover the run line on the road this season, as they are 15-7 in those games. They have covered the run line in five straight road games and have been a good bet as an underdog, going 14-10 on the run line in those games. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.2, while it is -3.1 in losing games.
Today’s over/under line for the Cincinnati Reds’ game against the Los Angeles Dodgers is set at 9 runs. The Reds’ games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 21-21. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 1-6-2. So far this season, the over/under line has been set at 9 runs for 10 of their games, which is 22.7% of their games.
Cincinnati is sending Frankie Montas to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.20. Montas has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. In his most recent outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Looking back at his last three outings, Montas has given up at least one homer in each of them. His ERA on the road is 10.6 compared to 1.72 at home.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top hitters this season, coming in with a batting average of .277, and he has also been hot of late, going 11/29 in his last eight games. De La Cruz is also on a six-game hitting streak. He is 2nd on the team with 22 RBIs and has gone deep nine times this season, which is the best mark on the team and 5th in the league.
Spencer Steer has also been a good power source for the Reds, as he is 9th in the league with 29 RBIs and has four homers. However, he is batting just .234 for the season. Will Benson has also been a big power threat, but he is hitting just .196 for the season and has gone 2/27 in his last eight games.
Los Angeles is 29-17 overall, good for a seven-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. The Dodgers have dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 10-7 in the division. So far, they have been good at home, going 15-9, and they are 14-8 on the road. This year, the Dodgers have been really good in night games, going 20-7.
This season, the Dodgers have been favored in 43 of their games, and they are 28-15 in those games. As the home favorite, the Dodgers are 14-9 this year. Los Angeles’ overall series record is 10-6, and they are 0-1 in this series vs. the Reds. Heading into today’s game, the Dodgers are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When it comes to betting the run line with the Dodgers, it’s been a mixed bag. They are 24-22 overall, but just 11-13 at home. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 13-9. They have been favored in 43 games and have gone 23-20 in those games. Their average run margin in games they win is 4.2, while it is -2.7 in games they lose.
The Dodgers have played 46 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 9 runs for just four of them. The over/under record for those games is 2-2, and the combined run average for those games is 8.7 runs. Overall, the Dodgers’ over/under record is 25-21, and the average over/under line for their games is also 9 runs.
So far this season, James Paxton has made seven starts and has a record of 5-0. His ERA is 2.58, along with a WHIP of 1.41. Paxton has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up a run. In that May 11th start vs. the Padres, he went six innings and didn’t give up a run, earning the win. Looking back further, Paxton has allowed at least one homer in three straight starts. His ERA at home is 2.25, compared to 3.03 on the road.
Shohei Ohtani has been one of the league’s top power hitters so far this season, as his 12 home runs are 2nd in the MLB and lead the Dodgers. Ohtani is also hitting .360 for the season and has gone 7/16 in his last four games. Teoscar Hernandez is also a power threat in the lineup, as his 11 homers are 3rd in the league, and he is batting .243 for the season.
As a team, the Dodgers have been one of the league’s top offenses so far, averaging 5.2 runs per game (2nd) and leading the league in on-base percentage, OPS, and home runs. They also have the league’s top on-base percentage and are the top home run-hitting team in the league. The team’s top hitter has been Mookie Betts, who is 8/20 in his last five games.
Our predicted final score for this Reds and Dodgers matchup is 6-4 in favor of the Dodgers, and with the money line payout for a Dodgers win sitting at -210, we are recommending taking the over on the 9 run line. Our model has the Dodgers’ lineup putting up six runs compared to the Reds’ four.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have James Paxton finishing with six strikeouts compared to Frankie Montas with five. However, Montas has a better chance of picking up a win than Paxton, with Montas ranking sixth in our starting pitcher win rankings.
As for the lineups, our model has the Dodgers finishing with nine hits compared to the Reds with eight. However, the Reds are projected to finish with just four runs, and the Dodgers’ lineup has a higher home run projection.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Dodgers on the moneyline
- The Dodgers should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Los Angeles Dodgers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Kelly | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Brasier | Out | Calf |
| Clayton Kershaw | Out | Shoulder |
| Jason Heyward | Out | Back |
| Dustin May | Out | Elbow |
| Evan Phillips | Out | Hamstring |
| Brusdar Graterol | Out | Shoulder |
| Tony Gonsolin | Out | Arm |
| Connor Brogdon | Out | Foot |
| Bobby Miller | Out | Shoulder |
| Kyle Hurt | Out | Shoulder |
| Emmet Sheehan | Out | Elbow |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Young | Out | Back |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Groin |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Jonathan India | Questionable | Migraine |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
