Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
From Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, we have the Phillies and Royals facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch is set for 2:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Philadelphia is 75-54 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Royals are 72-57 and are 2nd in the AL Central. Seth Lugo will start for the Royals, while the Phillies are starting Kolby Allard. Kansas City is the favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -136, while the Phillies are at +116. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and NSPPH will be televising Sunday’s game.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Phillies are 2-3. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Royals’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Royals have a record of 7-3 straight-up, and have gone 7-3 against the runline.
- The Phillies have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Philadelphia cruised to an easy 11-2 win over the Royals in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 2nd inning, scoring five of their eleven runs. As for the Royals, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -112.
Ranger Suarez only went five innings for the Phillies but gave up just one run and picked up the win. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, Brady Singer got the start for the Royals and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work.
J.T. Realmuto and Bryson Stott each homered for the Phillies. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber each had two RBIs. Schwarber went 2/5 with two doubles.
Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Philadelphia is on the road today vs. the Royals, and they lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies are 75-54 overall, and they are 20-14 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have dropped three straight games as the underdog, and their overall record as the underdog is 11-14 this year.
At home, the Phillies have gone 42-23 this year and are just above .500 at 33-31 on the road. The Phillies are 21-16-6 in series this year, and their overall record is 64-40 as the favorite. They have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games and are 1-1 in their series vs. the Royals.
When betting the run line in Phillies games, it’s been a coin flip proposition this season, as they are 63-66. They have been a better bet at home (31-34) than on the road (32-32). The average run margin in their games is +0.8, but it’s been slightly higher on the road (+0.3) than at home (+1.4). They have been the favorite in most of their games, going 50-54 against the run line in those contests.
Philadelphia is on the road in Kansas City today, and the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs. The Phillies have an over/under record of 60-63 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 7-7. So far this season, only 5.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher. Their current over streak is at 2 games.
Kolby Allard will be making his 3rd start of the season for the Phillies, and he has been solid in his first two outings. He picked up a win in his last start, going 5 innings and allowing just 1 earned run on 6 hits. In his first start, he went 4 innings and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .257, which is the 4th best mark in the league, and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Over the Phillies’ last five games, J.T. Realmuto has gone 7/17 with two homers and nine RBIs. This has helped him put together a three-game hitting streak. Alec Bohm has been a consistent run producer for the Phillies this season, as his 85 RBIs is 1st on the team and 11th in the league. Kyle Schwarber has also been a big power threat, as his 28 homers is 8th in the MLB.
Kansas City is 72-57 overall this season, and they are two games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Royals are 26-13 against other teams in the AL Central. They have won two straight games, and their overall series record is 19-20-2, including having won two straight series.
At home, the Royals are 41-27 this season and 31-30 on the road. This year, they have been the favorite in 66 games, going 42-24 in those games. As the home favorite, the Royals are 27-15 this season. Their overall record has been good, as they have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games.
When the Royals win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.1 runs per game. That’s a big reason why they are 73-56 on the run line this season. They are 39-29 at home on the run line, and have covered the run line in two straight games.
The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies today, with the over/under line set at 9.5 runs. The Royals have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 59-66. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs this season, the over has hit in 8 of their 14 games. This season, only 4.7% of the Royals’ games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, with the line being set at 9 runs on average.
Seth Lugo gets the start for the Royals today and comes in with a record of 14-7 and an ERA of 3.02. So far, he has made 26 starts and has one complete game and 18 quality starts. Lugo’s ERA for the season is 3.15 at home compared to 3.64 on the road. In his last outing, he pitched well, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished with eight strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. So far, Lugo has done a good job of limiting walks, coming in at 2.27 per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Royals are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .257. Kansas City has been tough to strike out this season and has the 6th best slugging percentage in the league.
Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the top hitters in the league this season, as he is batting .346 with 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have also been big run producers for the Royals, as Perez has 88 RBIs and Pasquantino has driven in 96 runs. Over his last seven games, Dairon Blanco is hitting .500 with three homers.
Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Royals matchup is to take the Royals on the money line at -136. We have the Royals winning this one by a score of 6-5, which gives us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under sitting at 9.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Seth Lugo finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for the sixth fewest among today’s starters. As for Kolby Allard, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him in the middle of the pack.
Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- Take the Royals on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Phillies (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Kansas City Royals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Harvey | Out | Back |
| Dan Altavilla | Out | Oblique |
| Josh Taylor | Out | Biceps |
| Kyle Wright | Out | Shoulder |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
