Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Betting Tips 9/17/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Preview

Casey Mize is starting for the Tigers on Tuesday, and he is facing off against Cole Ragans. The Tigers are +142 on the money line compared to the Royals, who are -168. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the game is being played at 7:40 PM ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.

The forecast for Tuesday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 90s. BSKC will be televising this one, and the Royals are looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 82-69. The Tigers have won two in a row and are 78-73, putting them 4th in the AL Central.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Trends and Key Stats

• 4-1 is the record of Tigers in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Royals have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Royals have a record of 7-3 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Tigers have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 6-4 against the runline.

Detroit rallied for three runs in the 9th inning in the most recent game of this Tigers vs. Royals series. The Tigers scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the top of the 9th, picking up a 7-6 win. Heading into the game, the Tigers were at +117 on the money line.

Kansas City wasted a good outing from Seth Lugo, as he gave up just four hits and four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work for the Royals. Sam Long took the loss.

Reese Olson only went 2 1/3 innings for the Tigers but gave up just one hit and one earned run. He finished with three strikeouts but issued one walk. Brennan Hanifee got the win out of the bullpen, and Jason Foley got the save.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Detroit is 78-73 overall and trails the Guardians by nine games in the AL Central. The Tigers are 25-22 against other teams in the division, and they have won two straight games overall. Their two most recent wins came in the first two games of their series vs. the Royals.

As the road team today, the Tigers are 39-37 this season. They have been slightly better at home, going 39-36. Detroit has won two straight games as the underdog, and their overall record as the underdog is 43-49. The Tigers have won three straight games as the road underdog, and their overall record in this spot is 27-31 this year.

The Tigers are 47-29 against the run line on the road this season. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and have a run line record of 80-71 overall. They are 59-33 against the run line as an underdog, compared to 21-38 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while it is -3.3 in losses.

Today’s over/under line for the Detroit Tigers’ game against the Kansas City Royals is set at 8 runs. The Tigers have a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-72. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 18-20-2. This season, 54 of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, which accounts for 35.8% of their games.

Casey Mize will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Rockies, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs, and one homer. Looking back over his last three outings, Mize has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 2-6 with a 4.47 ERA. Mize’s WHIP for the season is 1.41, and opponents are batting .278 off the right-hander. The last time he gave up a homer before the Rockies outing was August 30th.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .235, which is 18th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .299 is also near the bottom of the league.

Riley Greene is the Tigers’ leading home run hitter this season, but he has gone just 4/18 in his last five games. However, he has gone deep twice over that stretch. Matt Vierling and Colt Keith are also near the top of the Tigers’ home run leaderboard, with Vierling having 16 homers and Keith at 13. Vierling is batting .261 for the season, and Keith is at .263.

Kansas City is 82-69 overall, putting them five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Royals have gone 33-17 against other teams in the division. They dropped the first game of this series vs. the Tigers and have an overall series record of 21-24-2.

At home, the Royals are 45-31 this year compared to a 37-38 mark on the road. As the favorite, Kansas City has gone 47-27 and 30-18 as the favorite at home. They have been slightly below .500 as the underdog, coming in with a mark of 35-42 this year.

When the Royals win, they tend to win big, as their average run margin in victories is 4.0 runs. They have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 85-66 overall. Their run line record is split evenly between home and road games, as they are 43-33 at home and 42-33 on the road. They have been more profitable as the underdog, going 46-31 on the run line in those games.

The Kansas City Royals are hosting the Detroit Tigers today, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Royals games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 67-79. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 15-15-3. Overall, 60.9% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.

Cole Ragans is looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Yankees, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and seven hits. Looking back further, he has made 30 starts and has a record of 11-9 this season. Ragans’ ERA is 3.32, along with a WHIP of 1.15. Opponents have a batting average of .209 off the left-hander this year. Ragans has turned in 19 quality starts and is averaging 10.96 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has allowed 15 homers and is averaging 3.12 walks per nine innings.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 5 runs per contest. Overall, they have the 6th best batting average in the MLB and have the 2nd fewest strikeouts per game in the league. Kansas City’s lineup has been led by Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, with Witt Jr. batting .332 with a team-high 32 homers and 108 RBIs. Perez is also having a strong season, hitting .275 with 27 homers.

Over his last six games, Witt Jr. has gone 7/26 with two homers and 10 RBIs. He has also scored three runs over that stretch. Currently, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Massey, and Maikel Garcia are all on three-game hitting streaks for the Royals.

We see today’s Tigers vs. Royals matchup as a great opportunity to take the Tigers on the money line at +142. Our model has the Tigers coming out on top with a final score of 6-5. At +142, the Tigers have an implied win probability of 41.3%, and we have them closer to 50%.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Casey Mize finishing with six strikeouts, and he has the second-best chances of picking up a win among today’s starters. As for Cole Ragans, we have him finishing with six strikeouts and coming in sixth in terms of strikeout projections.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips

• We like the Tigers on the moneyline (+142)
• The Tigers are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Kansas City Royals Injury Report

Detroit Tigers Injury Report